渤海海域风浪特征相关性分析
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摘要
为提高对渤海风浪预报的准确率,为海上作业生产和船舶航行气象安全保障提供更有参考价值的风浪预报产品,利用2014—2016年渤海曹妃甸、潍坊港和烟台港浮标站实测资料,基于最小二乘法建立渤海浮标站3种风浪状态的风浪方程和误差订正方法,确定适合渤海海域的风浪协同预报方法。验证结果表明:该方法既可为气象和海洋部门进行渤海海域风浪预报提供技术支持,也能为海事部门进行大风浪条件下船舶航行风险评估提供更为准确的参考依据。
In order to increase the accuracy of wind and wave forecast in Bohai Sea, and ensure safety in offshore operation and shipping, three sets of wave equations with corresponding error correction methods are set up with the least square method based on the observation data from buoy stations at the ports of Caofeidian, Weifang and Yantai in the period from 2014 to 2016. The unified wind-wave prediction method suitable for Bohai Sea is proposed. Practical application proves that the proposed method is superior in accuracy for wind and wave forecast and shipping risk evaluation.
In order to increase the accuracy of wind and wave forecast in Bohai Sea, and ensure safety in offshore operation and shipping, three sets of wave equations with corresponding error correction methods are set up with the least square method based on the observation data from buoy stations at the ports of Caofeidian, Weifang and Yantai in the period from 2014 to 2016. The unified wind-wave prediction method suitable for Bohai Sea is proposed. Practical application proves that the proposed method is superior in accuracy for wind and wave forecast and shipping risk evaluation.
引文
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[2] 刘大刚,解以扬,刘彬贤,等.大风浪条件下船舶风险状况动态评估预警系统[J].中国航海,2015,38(1):63-67.
[3] 戴厚兴,吴兆麟.能见度不良条件下海上交通风险动态评估[J].中国航海,2017,40(2):65-68.
[4] TOBA Y.Local Balance in the Air-Sea Boundary Processes[J].Journal of the Oceanographical Society of Japan,1972,28(28):109-120.
[5] 王欣睿,娄安刚,孙波涛.珠江口近海海域海浪预报方法研究[J].海洋通报,2009,28(3):113-116.
[6] NATESAN U,SUBRAMANIAN S P.Wind-Wave Relationship for Bay of Bengal from GEOSAT Data[J].Journal of the India Society of Remote Sensing,1992,20:159-164.
[7] 陈希,沙文钰,李研,等.人工神经网络技术在海浪预报中的应用[J].海洋通报,2002,21(2):11-15.
[8] 杨斌,冯卫兵,虞丹君.江苏辐射沙洲北部海域风浪关系分析[J].水道港口,2014,35(6):578-581.
[9] 龙强,王锋,项青霞,等.唐山南部近海海浪特征及风浪预报方法分析研究[J].海洋预报,2016,33(3):27-33.
[10] 解以扬,刘大刚,吴丹朱,等.黄、渤海恶劣天气影响船舶安全的风险预估技术初探[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):136-143.
[2] 刘大刚,解以扬,刘彬贤,等.大风浪条件下船舶风险状况动态评估预警系统[J].中国航海,2015,38(1):63-67.
[3] 戴厚兴,吴兆麟.能见度不良条件下海上交通风险动态评估[J].中国航海,2017,40(2):65-68.
[4] TOBA Y.Local Balance in the Air-Sea Boundary Processes[J].Journal of the Oceanographical Society of Japan,1972,28(28):109-120.
[5] 王欣睿,娄安刚,孙波涛.珠江口近海海域海浪预报方法研究[J].海洋通报,2009,28(3):113-116.
[6] NATESAN U,SUBRAMANIAN S P.Wind-Wave Relationship for Bay of Bengal from GEOSAT Data[J].Journal of the India Society of Remote Sensing,1992,20:159-164.
[7] 陈希,沙文钰,李研,等.人工神经网络技术在海浪预报中的应用[J].海洋通报,2002,21(2):11-15.
[8] 杨斌,冯卫兵,虞丹君.江苏辐射沙洲北部海域风浪关系分析[J].水道港口,2014,35(6):578-581.
[9] 龙强,王锋,项青霞,等.唐山南部近海海浪特征及风浪预报方法分析研究[J].海洋预报,2016,33(3):27-33.
[10] 解以扬,刘大刚,吴丹朱,等.黄、渤海恶劣天气影响船舶安全的风险预估技术初探[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):136-143.