珠江口极值潮位趋势及变异分析——以灯笼山站为例
|
摘要
极值潮位是推求设计潮位的基础数据,掌握极值潮位的变化特征规律对沿海防潮工程设施建设具有重要意义。以灯笼山站1959—2017年的逐年实测极值潮位为研究对象,在极值潮位年内分布特征分析的基础上,进一步利用Mann-kendall趋势及突变检验方法分别探讨了极值潮位的趋势及变异情况。结果发现:①灯笼山站年最高潮位主要出现在5—11月,其中以7月最多;最低潮位主要集中在12月至次年3月,其中以1月最多;②年最高潮位整体呈显著上升趋势,并通过了99%的显著性水平检验,但未发生突变;③年最低潮位整体呈略微下降的趋势但并不显著,M-K突变检验表明序列在1980年与2010年发生了突变,可能是受人类活动影响所致。
Extremum tidal level is the basic data for calculating design tidal level. It is of great significance to grasp the change of extreme tidal level for the construction of coastal damp-proof engineering facilities. In this study, the annual measured extreme tide level of the Denglongshan station for 1959-2017 is taken as the object. Based on the analysis of the annual distribution characteristics of extreme tidal level, the trend and variation of extreme tidal level are discussed by using Mann-Kendall trend and variation test. The results show that: 1) The highest tide level is mainly distributed from May to November, with the largest number in July. And the lowest tidal level is mainly distributed from December to March, with the largest number in January. 2) The interannual variation of the highest tide level showed a significant upward trend, and a significant 99% level test was performed, but no mutation occurred. 3) The interannual variation of the lowest tidal level showed a slight decrease but not significant. The M-K mutation test showed that the mutation occurred in 1980 and 2010, which may be caused by human activities.
Extremum tidal level is the basic data for calculating design tidal level. It is of great significance to grasp the change of extreme tidal level for the construction of coastal damp-proof engineering facilities. In this study, the annual measured extreme tide level of the Denglongshan station for 1959-2017 is taken as the object. Based on the analysis of the annual distribution characteristics of extreme tidal level, the trend and variation of extreme tidal level are discussed by using Mann-Kendall trend and variation test. The results show that: 1) The highest tide level is mainly distributed from May to November, with the largest number in July. And the lowest tidal level is mainly distributed from December to March, with the largest number in January. 2) The interannual variation of the highest tide level showed a significant upward trend, and a significant 99% level test was performed, but no mutation occurred. 3) The interannual variation of the lowest tidal level showed a slight decrease but not significant. The M-K mutation test showed that the mutation occurred in 1980 and 2010, which may be caused by human activities.
引文
[1] 苏程佳,陈晓宏,唐亦汉,等.河道地形变化对洪潮水面线的影响分析——以西北江三角洲河网为例[J].水文,2018,38(3):13-20,28.
[2] 广东省防汛防旱总指挥部,广东省水利厅. 广东水旱风灾害[M]. 广州:暨南大学出版社, 1997:206-225.
[3] 苏程佳,陈莎,陈晓宏.基于随机森林模型的咸潮预报[J].热带地理,2018,38(3):432-439.
[4] 罗宪林,杨清书,贾良文,等. 珠江三角洲网河河床演变[M]. 广州:中山大学出版社, 2002.
[5] 张悦,李国芳. 长江口潮位非一致性及对水文设计的影响研究[J]. 长江科学院院报,2015,32(5):21-27,36.
[6] 肖淼元,李国芳,王伟杰. 长江口潮位一致性检验与修正方法研究[J]. 长江科学院院报,2013,30(4):6-10.
[7] 中华人民共和国水利部水文局. 中华人民共和国水文年鉴(第8卷第7册)[M].1957—2017.
[8] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1999:30-100.
[9] 刘春杉,张彤辉,陈玮哲. 珠江口海域围填海演进过程与问题分析研究[J]. 海洋开发与管理,2017,34(3):33-37.
[2] 广东省防汛防旱总指挥部,广东省水利厅. 广东水旱风灾害[M]. 广州:暨南大学出版社, 1997:206-225.
[3] 苏程佳,陈莎,陈晓宏.基于随机森林模型的咸潮预报[J].热带地理,2018,38(3):432-439.
[4] 罗宪林,杨清书,贾良文,等. 珠江三角洲网河河床演变[M]. 广州:中山大学出版社, 2002.
[5] 张悦,李国芳. 长江口潮位非一致性及对水文设计的影响研究[J]. 长江科学院院报,2015,32(5):21-27,36.
[6] 肖淼元,李国芳,王伟杰. 长江口潮位一致性检验与修正方法研究[J]. 长江科学院院报,2013,30(4):6-10.
[7] 中华人民共和国水利部水文局. 中华人民共和国水文年鉴(第8卷第7册)[M].1957—2017.
[8] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1999:30-100.
[9] 刘春杉,张彤辉,陈玮哲. 珠江口海域围填海演进过程与问题分析研究[J]. 海洋开发与管理,2017,34(3):33-37.