交通基础设施与服务业的集聚效应——来自省市两级的多层线性分析
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摘要
服务业集聚是提高产业素质和区域竞争力的重要途径,如何更好地发挥服务业的集聚效应是区域经济发展需要探究的核心问题之一。本文将交通运输成本纳入到产业集聚与生产率关系的理论模型中,讨论了交通基础设施影响服务业集聚效应的机制。实证研究中,基于面板门限模型将样本省份划分为交通基础设施建设的高水平和低水平两组,进而利用多层线性回归模型就交通基础设施对服务业集聚效应的影响进行了检验,结果发现:在交通基础设施发达的省份,省级服务业集聚能够强化城市服务业集聚效应的发挥;在交通基础设施水平较低的省份,服务业集聚的有效范围仅局限在城市层面,省级服务业集聚对市级服务业的集聚效应难以产生促进作用。
Agglomeration of service industries is one important way to improve the industrial quality and the regional competitiveness.A key step for regional economic development is to explore how to promote the agglomeration effects of service industries.By incorporating transport costs into the theory model of the relationship between industrial agglomeration and productivity,the paper discusses the mechanism of how traffic infrastructure affects service agglomeration.In the empirical study,the samples of provinces in China are divided into a high level group and a low level group in terms of traffic infrastructure based on the panel threshold model.Then,the effects of transport infrastructure on agglomeration of service industries are tested by hierarchical linear model.The results show that in the provinces where transportation infrastructure is developed,the agglomeration of service industries at the provincial level can strengthen the urban agglomeration effects.While in the provinces where transportation infrastructure is underdeveloped,the effective range of the agglomeration of service industries is only limited to the municipal level,and the provincial service agglomeration can not improve the agglomeration effects of urban service industries.
Agglomeration of service industries is one important way to improve the industrial quality and the regional competitiveness.A key step for regional economic development is to explore how to promote the agglomeration effects of service industries.By incorporating transport costs into the theory model of the relationship between industrial agglomeration and productivity,the paper discusses the mechanism of how traffic infrastructure affects service agglomeration.In the empirical study,the samples of provinces in China are divided into a high level group and a low level group in terms of traffic infrastructure based on the panel threshold model.Then,the effects of transport infrastructure on agglomeration of service industries are tested by hierarchical linear model.The results show that in the provinces where transportation infrastructure is developed,the agglomeration of service industries at the provincial level can strengthen the urban agglomeration effects.While in the provinces where transportation infrastructure is underdeveloped,the effective range of the agglomeration of service industries is only limited to the municipal level,and the provincial service agglomeration can not improve the agglomeration effects of urban service industries.
引文
[1]Mc Cann P.,Shefer D.Location,Agglomeration and Infrastructure[J].Papers in Regional Science,2004,83(1):177-196
[2]威廉姆森.交易经济学:契约关系的规制[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1996
[3]杨小凯,张永生.新兴古典经济学和超边际分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000
[4]Krugman P.R.Geography and Trade[M].Cambridge:The MIT Press,1991
[5]范剑勇.产业集聚与地区间劳动生产率差异[J].经济研究,2006,(11):72-81
[6]陈建军,陈国亮,黄洁.新经济地理学视角下的生产性服务业集聚及其影响因素研究---来自中国222个城市的经验证据[J].管理世界,2009,(4):83-95
[7]庄惠明,郑剑山.中国服务业FDI的效应研究:基于技术溢出与竞争排斥视角[J].管理评论,2015,27(2):26-34
[8]Hafner K.A.Agglomeration Economies and Clustering---Evidence From German and European Firms[J].Applied Economics,2013,45(20):2938-2953
[9]唐运舒,冯南平,高登榜.要素转移与聚集融合发展的机理与路径分析[J].当代经济管理,2013,35(3):54-58
[10]Porter M.E.The Structure within Industries and Companies’Performance[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1979,61(2):214-227
[11]Marrocu E.,Paci R.,Usai S.Productivity Growth in the Old and New Europe:The Role of Agglomeration Externalities[J].Journal of Regional Science,2013,53(3):418-442
[12]Jacobs W.,Koster H.R.A.,van Oort F.Co-Agglomeration of Knowledge-intensive Business Services and Multinational Enterprises[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2014,14(2):443-475
[13]Ke S.,He M.,Yuan C.Synergy and Co-Agglomeration of Producer Services and Manufacturing:A Panel Data Analysis of Chinese Cities[J].Regional Studies,2014,48(11):1829-1841
[14]Desmet K.,Fafchamps M.Changes in the Spatial Concentration of Employment across US Counties:A Sectoral Analysis 1972-2000[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2005,5(3):261-284
[15]李华香,李善同.中国城市服务业空间分布的特征及演变趋势分析[J].管理评论,2014,26(8):22-30
[16]沈能.局域知识溢出和生产性服务业空间集聚---基于中国城市数据的空间计量分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2013,34(5):61-69
[17]韩峰,王琢卓,阳立高.生产性服务业集聚、空间技术溢出效应与经济增长[J].产业经济研究,2014,(2):1-10
[18]李文秀,谭力文.服务业集聚的二维评价模型及实证研究---以美国服务业为例[J].中国工业经济,2008,(4):55-63
[19]顾乃华.我国城市生产性服务业集聚对工业的外溢效应及其区域边界---基于HLM模型的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2011,(5):115-122
[20]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.交通基础设施与中国区域经济一体化[J].经济研究,2011,(3):72-82
[21]Chatman D.G.,Noland R.B.Transit Service,Physical Agglomeration and Productivity in US Metropolitan Areas[J].Urban Studies,2014,51(5):917-937
[22]Meliciani V.,Savona M.The Determinants of Regional Specialisation in Business Services:Agglomeration Economies,Vertical Linkages and Innovation[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2015,15(2):387-416
[23]Holl A.Transport Infrastructure,Agglomeration Economies,and Firm Birth:Empirical Evidence from Portugal[J].Journal of Regional Science,2004,44(4):693-712
[24]Deichmann U.,Kaiser K.,Lall S.V.,et al.Agglomeration,Transport,and Regional Development in Indonesia[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.3477,2005
[25]Graham D.J.Agglomeration,Productivity and Transport Investment[J].Journal of Transport Economics and Policy(JTEP),2007,41(3):317-343
[26]Ciccone A.,Hall R.E.Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J].The American Economic Review,1996,86(1):54-70
[27]Abdel-Rahman H.,Fujita M.Product Variety,Marshallian Externalities,and City Sizes[J].Journal of Regional Science,1990,30(2):165-183
[28]Duranton G.,Puga D.From Sectoral to Functional Urban Specialisation[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2005,57(2):343-370
[29]Tsay R.S.Testing and Modeling Threshold Autoregressive Processes[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1989,84(405):231-240
[30]Hansen B.E.Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels:Estimation,Testing,and Inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368
[31]Aschauer D.A.Is Public Expenditure Productive?[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23(2):177-200
[32]刘秉镰,武鹏,刘玉海.交通基础设施与中国全要素生产率增长---基于省域数据的空间面板计量分析[J].中国工业经济,2010,(3):54-64
[33]Cohen J.Statistical Power Analysis[J].Current Directions in Psychological Science,1992,1(3):98-101
(1)长期均衡时,地区之间自由贸易,厂商自由进入,中间厂商的产出和制造业厂商的产出比例恒定为μ(意味着交通基础设施只对成本有影响),所有厂商工资率均相同wi,整个城市劳动创造的价值=制造业的增加值+中间厂商的增加值,制造业作为最终产品,其产值Y衡量了总产值。去掉其他原始资本,所有劳动人数创造的价值增量为wiLi=Y(1-γ),因此X=(μ/(1-γ))wiLi。
(2)其中,θi=[(μ/(1-γ))1+λ((μ+γσx)/((1-ε)σx)-2)(σxλ)λ(2-μ/(1-ε))-1fλ[1μ/((1-ε)σx)]-1(cxσxλ/σxλ-1)μλ/(1-ε)μλ]1/(1-λ[1-γ/(1-ε)])。
(3)由于本文包括省份和地级市两个层面的数据,所以“地区”既包含了省份,也包含了地级市,同时本文的服务业指代统计年鉴上的第三产业。
(4)等级公路密度的单位为公里/平方公里,门限值0.425意味着每平方公里的等级公路长度为0.425公里。
[2]威廉姆森.交易经济学:契约关系的规制[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1996
[3]杨小凯,张永生.新兴古典经济学和超边际分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000
[4]Krugman P.R.Geography and Trade[M].Cambridge:The MIT Press,1991
[5]范剑勇.产业集聚与地区间劳动生产率差异[J].经济研究,2006,(11):72-81
[6]陈建军,陈国亮,黄洁.新经济地理学视角下的生产性服务业集聚及其影响因素研究---来自中国222个城市的经验证据[J].管理世界,2009,(4):83-95
[7]庄惠明,郑剑山.中国服务业FDI的效应研究:基于技术溢出与竞争排斥视角[J].管理评论,2015,27(2):26-34
[8]Hafner K.A.Agglomeration Economies and Clustering---Evidence From German and European Firms[J].Applied Economics,2013,45(20):2938-2953
[9]唐运舒,冯南平,高登榜.要素转移与聚集融合发展的机理与路径分析[J].当代经济管理,2013,35(3):54-58
[10]Porter M.E.The Structure within Industries and Companies’Performance[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1979,61(2):214-227
[11]Marrocu E.,Paci R.,Usai S.Productivity Growth in the Old and New Europe:The Role of Agglomeration Externalities[J].Journal of Regional Science,2013,53(3):418-442
[12]Jacobs W.,Koster H.R.A.,van Oort F.Co-Agglomeration of Knowledge-intensive Business Services and Multinational Enterprises[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2014,14(2):443-475
[13]Ke S.,He M.,Yuan C.Synergy and Co-Agglomeration of Producer Services and Manufacturing:A Panel Data Analysis of Chinese Cities[J].Regional Studies,2014,48(11):1829-1841
[14]Desmet K.,Fafchamps M.Changes in the Spatial Concentration of Employment across US Counties:A Sectoral Analysis 1972-2000[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2005,5(3):261-284
[15]李华香,李善同.中国城市服务业空间分布的特征及演变趋势分析[J].管理评论,2014,26(8):22-30
[16]沈能.局域知识溢出和生产性服务业空间集聚---基于中国城市数据的空间计量分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2013,34(5):61-69
[17]韩峰,王琢卓,阳立高.生产性服务业集聚、空间技术溢出效应与经济增长[J].产业经济研究,2014,(2):1-10
[18]李文秀,谭力文.服务业集聚的二维评价模型及实证研究---以美国服务业为例[J].中国工业经济,2008,(4):55-63
[19]顾乃华.我国城市生产性服务业集聚对工业的外溢效应及其区域边界---基于HLM模型的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2011,(5):115-122
[20]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.交通基础设施与中国区域经济一体化[J].经济研究,2011,(3):72-82
[21]Chatman D.G.,Noland R.B.Transit Service,Physical Agglomeration and Productivity in US Metropolitan Areas[J].Urban Studies,2014,51(5):917-937
[22]Meliciani V.,Savona M.The Determinants of Regional Specialisation in Business Services:Agglomeration Economies,Vertical Linkages and Innovation[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2015,15(2):387-416
[23]Holl A.Transport Infrastructure,Agglomeration Economies,and Firm Birth:Empirical Evidence from Portugal[J].Journal of Regional Science,2004,44(4):693-712
[24]Deichmann U.,Kaiser K.,Lall S.V.,et al.Agglomeration,Transport,and Regional Development in Indonesia[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.3477,2005
[25]Graham D.J.Agglomeration,Productivity and Transport Investment[J].Journal of Transport Economics and Policy(JTEP),2007,41(3):317-343
[26]Ciccone A.,Hall R.E.Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J].The American Economic Review,1996,86(1):54-70
[27]Abdel-Rahman H.,Fujita M.Product Variety,Marshallian Externalities,and City Sizes[J].Journal of Regional Science,1990,30(2):165-183
[28]Duranton G.,Puga D.From Sectoral to Functional Urban Specialisation[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2005,57(2):343-370
[29]Tsay R.S.Testing and Modeling Threshold Autoregressive Processes[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1989,84(405):231-240
[30]Hansen B.E.Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels:Estimation,Testing,and Inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368
[31]Aschauer D.A.Is Public Expenditure Productive?[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23(2):177-200
[32]刘秉镰,武鹏,刘玉海.交通基础设施与中国全要素生产率增长---基于省域数据的空间面板计量分析[J].中国工业经济,2010,(3):54-64
[33]Cohen J.Statistical Power Analysis[J].Current Directions in Psychological Science,1992,1(3):98-101
(1)长期均衡时,地区之间自由贸易,厂商自由进入,中间厂商的产出和制造业厂商的产出比例恒定为μ(意味着交通基础设施只对成本有影响),所有厂商工资率均相同wi,整个城市劳动创造的价值=制造业的增加值+中间厂商的增加值,制造业作为最终产品,其产值Y衡量了总产值。去掉其他原始资本,所有劳动人数创造的价值增量为wiLi=Y(1-γ),因此X=(μ/(1-γ))wiLi。
(2)其中,θi=[(μ/(1-γ))1+λ((μ+γσx)/((1-ε)σx)-2)(σxλ)λ(2-μ/(1-ε))-1fλ[1μ/((1-ε)σx)]-1(cxσxλ/σxλ-1)μλ/(1-ε)μλ]1/(1-λ[1-γ/(1-ε)])。
(3)由于本文包括省份和地级市两个层面的数据,所以“地区”既包含了省份,也包含了地级市,同时本文的服务业指代统计年鉴上的第三产业。
(4)等级公路密度的单位为公里/平方公里,门限值0.425意味着每平方公里的等级公路长度为0.425公里。