贸易引力、社会嵌入与文化产品出口——来自中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的经验分析
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摘要
综合社会嵌入性理论与经典贸易引力模型理论,将贸易引力模型中的经济因素作为层一变量,将社会嵌入性理论中的认知、关系、结构、文化和政治嵌入作为层二变量,采用多层统计分析工具,运用2002年~2014年中国与27个"一带一路"沿线国家的文化贸易数据,实证分析影响中国文化产品出口的核心因素及作用路径。结果表明:中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的核心文化产品出口存在较大差异,且这种差异多由各国的社会嵌入性因素造成;GDP、贸易条件、科技应用水平以及认知、文化和结构嵌入对中国文化产品出口具有显著的直接影响,文化和结构嵌入对中国文化产品出口还兼具间接影响;文化嵌入会削弱GDP对文化贸易的正向影响,结构嵌入能增强GDP对文化贸易的正向影响、削弱科技应用水平对文化贸易的正向影响。因而推进"一带一路"发展战略,增强中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间的文化交流与贸易往来,既要考虑经济因素,也要考虑社会嵌入性因素。
Integrating the social embedding theory and the trade gravity model,the paper takes the economic factors in trade gravity model as the first level of variables,and meanwhile,takes the cognition,relation,structure,culture and politics embedding as the second one. By using multilevel statistical analysis tools and the cultural trade data of China and 27 countries along the Belt and Road from 2002 to 2014,the paper analyzes the key factors influencing the export of China's cultural products and function pathway with empirical method. The result shows that there is a great difference in the export of China's core cultural products in the countries along the Belt and Road,and most of the differences are caused by the factors of social embedding. The significant and direct factors influencing the export of China's cultural products include GDP,terms of trade,science and technology level,cognitive embedding,cultural embedding and structural embedding,while cultural embedding and structural embedding also have indirect effect. Cultural embedding can weaken the positive relationship between GDP and cultural trade,while structural embedding can strengthen it,even though it can weaken the positive relationship between science and technology level and cultural trade. Therefore,promoting the development strategy of the "Belt and Road"to strengthen cultural exchanges and trade between China and the countries along it should consider not only the economic factors but also the social embedding ones.
Integrating the social embedding theory and the trade gravity model,the paper takes the economic factors in trade gravity model as the first level of variables,and meanwhile,takes the cognition,relation,structure,culture and politics embedding as the second one. By using multilevel statistical analysis tools and the cultural trade data of China and 27 countries along the Belt and Road from 2002 to 2014,the paper analyzes the key factors influencing the export of China's cultural products and function pathway with empirical method. The result shows that there is a great difference in the export of China's core cultural products in the countries along the Belt and Road,and most of the differences are caused by the factors of social embedding. The significant and direct factors influencing the export of China's cultural products include GDP,terms of trade,science and technology level,cognitive embedding,cultural embedding and structural embedding,while cultural embedding and structural embedding also have indirect effect. Cultural embedding can weaken the positive relationship between GDP and cultural trade,while structural embedding can strengthen it,even though it can weaken the positive relationship between science and technology level and cultural trade. Therefore,promoting the development strategy of the "Belt and Road"to strengthen cultural exchanges and trade between China and the countries along it should consider not only the economic factors but also the social embedding ones.
引文
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[2]刘卫东.“一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题[J].地理科学进展,2015(5):538-544.
[3]刘洪铎,李文宇,陈和.文化交融如何影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的双边贸易往来---基于1995-2013年微观贸易数据的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2016(2):3-13.
[4]GUISO L,ZINGALES L.Cultural biases in economic exchange[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2007,124(42):1095-1131.
[5]GRANOVETTER M.Economic action and social structure:the problem of embeddedness[J].American Journal of Sociology,1985,91(3):481-510.
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[8]ANDERSON J E.A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation.[J].American Economic Review,1979,69(4):276-81.
[9]李怀亮,闫玉刚.当代国际文化贸易综论(上)[J].河北学刊,2005(6):113-119.
[10]DISDIER A C,TAI S H T,FONTAGNéL,et al.Bilateral trade of cultural goods[J].Review of World Economics,2010,145(4):575-595.
[11]HOFSTEDE G H.Culture's consequences:comparing values,behaviors,institutions and organizations across nations[C].London:Sage Publications Inc,2001,41(2):924-931.
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[14]FELBERMAYR G J,TOUBAL F.Cultural proximity and trade[J].European Economic Review,2010,54(2):279-293.
[15]曲如晓,韩丽丽.中国文化商品贸易影响因素的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(11):19-31.
[16]曹麦,苗莉青,姚想想.我国艺术品出口的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(5):45-54.
[17]黄玖立,周泽平.多维度距离下的中国文化产品贸易[J].产业经济研究,2015(5):93-100.
[18]HOSKINS C,MCFADYEN S,FINN A,et al.Evidence on the performance of Canada/Europe co-productions in television and film[J].Journal of Cultural Economics,1997,21(21):129-138.
[19]SCHULZE G.International trade in art[J].Journal of Cultural Economics,1999,23(1):109-136.
[20]KIM S,SKVORETZ J.Embedded trade:a third-party effect[J].Social Science Quarterly,2010,91(4):964-983.
[21]MEYER K E,MUDAMBI R,NARULA R.Multinational enterprises and local contexts:the opportunities and challenges of multiple embeddedness[J].Journal of Management Studies,2011,48(2):235-252.
[22]廖继胜,刘志虹.关于我国文化产权交易市场制度的探讨[J].理论探索,2016(6):83-90.
[23]LI K,GRIFFIN D,YUE H,et al.How does culture influence corporate risk-taking?[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2013,23(4):1-22.
[24]赵龙凯,岳衡,矫堃.出资国文化特征与合资企业风险关系探究[J].经济研究,2014(1):70-82.
[25]徐元国,徐心楚.国家文化维度、电影市场信号与票房绩效---基于HLM模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2015(12):15-26.
[26]ZUKIN S,DIMAGGIO P.Structures of capital:the social organization of the economy[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1990.
[27]HASSON J A.Shaping the world economy:suggestions for an international economic policy[J].Economica,1964,31(123):327.
[28]PYHNEN P.A tentative model or the volume of trade between countries[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1963,90:93-100.
[29]LEAMER E,LEVINSOHN J.International trade theory:the evidence[R].NBER Working Papers,1994:4940.
[30]兰建平,苗文斌.嵌入性理论研究综述[J].技术经济,2009(1):104-108.
[31]ACHEN C H.Two-step hierarchical estimation:beyond regression analysis[J].Political Analysis,2005,13(4):447-456.
[32]FRANZESE R J.Empirical strategies for various manifestations of multilevel data[J].Political Analysis,2005,13(4):148-149.
[33]刘殿国,郭静如.中国省域环境效率影响因素的实证研究---基于社会嵌入视角和多层统计模型的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(8):79-87.
[34]王济川,谢海义.多层统计分析模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2010.
[35]SCHOUT A,NORTH D C.Institutional change and economic performance[J].Economic Journal,1991,101(409):1587-1596.
[36]潘镇,殷华方,鲁明泓.制度距离对于外资企业绩效的影响---一项基于生存分析的实证研究[J].管理世界,2008(7):103-115.
[37]KOGUT B,SINGH H.The effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1988,19(3):411-432.
(1)考虑到样本数据具有多层嵌套结构特征,若采用标准最小二乘法(OLS)模型,可能难以清晰地解释多层变量之间的关系,并可能导致严重误差,因而参照Li等(2013)[23]、赵龙凯等(2014)[24]、刘殿国和郭静如(2016)[33]的研究,采用多层线性回归模型进行分析,以突破传统回归模型的局限。对多层模型优势的理论解释及应用亦采用多层统计模型(HLM)进行回归分析。
(1)边际文化进口额这一概念,参照刘殿国和郭静如(2016)[33]的定义方式,指代层二变量数量上的变化,通过层一变量对因变量的影响程度。
[2]刘卫东.“一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题[J].地理科学进展,2015(5):538-544.
[3]刘洪铎,李文宇,陈和.文化交融如何影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的双边贸易往来---基于1995-2013年微观贸易数据的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2016(2):3-13.
[4]GUISO L,ZINGALES L.Cultural biases in economic exchange[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2007,124(42):1095-1131.
[5]GRANOVETTER M.Economic action and social structure:the problem of embeddedness[J].American Journal of Sociology,1985,91(3):481-510.
[6]WEI S J.Intra-national versus international trade:how stubborn are nations in global integration?[R].Nber Working Papers,1996.
[7]GROOT H L,LINDERS G J,RIETVELD P,et al.The institutional determinants of bilateral trade patterns[R].ERSA Conference Papers.Italy:European Regional Science Association,2003.
[8]ANDERSON J E.A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation.[J].American Economic Review,1979,69(4):276-81.
[9]李怀亮,闫玉刚.当代国际文化贸易综论(上)[J].河北学刊,2005(6):113-119.
[10]DISDIER A C,TAI S H T,FONTAGNéL,et al.Bilateral trade of cultural goods[J].Review of World Economics,2010,145(4):575-595.
[11]HOFSTEDE G H.Culture's consequences:comparing values,behaviors,institutions and organizations across nations[C].London:Sage Publications Inc,2001,41(2):924-931.
[12]曲如晓,杨修,刘杨.文化差异、贸易成本与中国文化产品出口[J].世界经济,2015(9):130-143.
[13]CYRUS T L.Cultural distance and bilateral trade[J].Global Economy Journal,2012,12(4):1-25.
[14]FELBERMAYR G J,TOUBAL F.Cultural proximity and trade[J].European Economic Review,2010,54(2):279-293.
[15]曲如晓,韩丽丽.中国文化商品贸易影响因素的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(11):19-31.
[16]曹麦,苗莉青,姚想想.我国艺术品出口的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(5):45-54.
[17]黄玖立,周泽平.多维度距离下的中国文化产品贸易[J].产业经济研究,2015(5):93-100.
[18]HOSKINS C,MCFADYEN S,FINN A,et al.Evidence on the performance of Canada/Europe co-productions in television and film[J].Journal of Cultural Economics,1997,21(21):129-138.
[19]SCHULZE G.International trade in art[J].Journal of Cultural Economics,1999,23(1):109-136.
[20]KIM S,SKVORETZ J.Embedded trade:a third-party effect[J].Social Science Quarterly,2010,91(4):964-983.
[21]MEYER K E,MUDAMBI R,NARULA R.Multinational enterprises and local contexts:the opportunities and challenges of multiple embeddedness[J].Journal of Management Studies,2011,48(2):235-252.
[22]廖继胜,刘志虹.关于我国文化产权交易市场制度的探讨[J].理论探索,2016(6):83-90.
[23]LI K,GRIFFIN D,YUE H,et al.How does culture influence corporate risk-taking?[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2013,23(4):1-22.
[24]赵龙凯,岳衡,矫堃.出资国文化特征与合资企业风险关系探究[J].经济研究,2014(1):70-82.
[25]徐元国,徐心楚.国家文化维度、电影市场信号与票房绩效---基于HLM模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2015(12):15-26.
[26]ZUKIN S,DIMAGGIO P.Structures of capital:the social organization of the economy[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1990.
[27]HASSON J A.Shaping the world economy:suggestions for an international economic policy[J].Economica,1964,31(123):327.
[28]PYHNEN P.A tentative model or the volume of trade between countries[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1963,90:93-100.
[29]LEAMER E,LEVINSOHN J.International trade theory:the evidence[R].NBER Working Papers,1994:4940.
[30]兰建平,苗文斌.嵌入性理论研究综述[J].技术经济,2009(1):104-108.
[31]ACHEN C H.Two-step hierarchical estimation:beyond regression analysis[J].Political Analysis,2005,13(4):447-456.
[32]FRANZESE R J.Empirical strategies for various manifestations of multilevel data[J].Political Analysis,2005,13(4):148-149.
[33]刘殿国,郭静如.中国省域环境效率影响因素的实证研究---基于社会嵌入视角和多层统计模型的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(8):79-87.
[34]王济川,谢海义.多层统计分析模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2010.
[35]SCHOUT A,NORTH D C.Institutional change and economic performance[J].Economic Journal,1991,101(409):1587-1596.
[36]潘镇,殷华方,鲁明泓.制度距离对于外资企业绩效的影响---一项基于生存分析的实证研究[J].管理世界,2008(7):103-115.
[37]KOGUT B,SINGH H.The effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1988,19(3):411-432.
(1)考虑到样本数据具有多层嵌套结构特征,若采用标准最小二乘法(OLS)模型,可能难以清晰地解释多层变量之间的关系,并可能导致严重误差,因而参照Li等(2013)[23]、赵龙凯等(2014)[24]、刘殿国和郭静如(2016)[33]的研究,采用多层线性回归模型进行分析,以突破传统回归模型的局限。对多层模型优势的理论解释及应用亦采用多层统计模型(HLM)进行回归分析。
(1)边际文化进口额这一概念,参照刘殿国和郭静如(2016)[33]的定义方式,指代层二变量数量上的变化,通过层一变量对因变量的影响程度。