环境规制与中国外商直接投资变化——基于DEA多重分解的实证研究
|
摘要
中国经济进入"新常态",产能过剩和环境污染问题日益突出,国际投资环境不容乐观,"供给侧结构性改革"为中国经济"新常态"下的必要举措。本文探索环境规制下我国FDI变化的影响因素,通过FDI的子向量距离函数定义"环境规制生产技术"和"非环境规制生产技术",以此构造环境规制的成本效应,测度中国30个省份1999-2015年的环境规制成本,并在此基础上对实际FDI的变化进行分解。本文的主要结论有:2001年后,中国各省份的环境规制成本呈现整体上升趋势,东部地区的环境规制效果最为明显;环境规制下,中国各省份的实际FDI增速先加快后减缓,2015年之前,第二产业对FDI的吸引力最强,2014年开始,第三产业对FDI的吸引显著增强,"供给侧结构性改革"初显成效,促进了我国的产业结构优化升级。反事实检验显示导致各个时期FDI变化的影响因素不尽相同,但随着改革开放的力度不断加大,全要素生产率和产业结构对FDI分布的影响显著增强。
Since the reform and opening up of China,the openness and investment environment have continuously improved and the sustained rapid economic growth has led to China gradually becoming a major destination for global transnational investment. However,the Chinese economy is entering a "new normal,"with overcapacity and environmental pollution becoming increasingly prominent. In line with the principle that"lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,"building an ecological civilization is the millennium plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation,and the party's 19 th National Congress report clearly proposes to implement stringent environmental protection. In addition,global foreign direct investment( FDI)has generally declined and the international investment environment is not encouraging. Although foreign investment in mainland China has maintained growth,the growth rate has declined. In the face of the unequal international investment environment and increasingly serious domestic environmental problems,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of environmental regulation on FDI in light of the current state of the Chinese economy.This paper uses data envelopment analysis to explore the factors influencing China's FDI changes under environmental regulation. Using the sub-vector distance function of FDI,we define the production technology of environmental and non-environmental regulation to construct an index of the cost effect of environmental regulation and measure the cost of environmental regulation of 30 provinces in China over the 1999 – 2015 period. Furthermore,we decompose the changes in actual FDI and test the factors influencing the actual FDI changes under environmental regulations using a counterfactual test. We use the input and output data from China's 30 provinces( except Tibet) for 1998 – 2015,including four input data,three good outputs,and two bad outputs. The data come mainly from the statistical yearbook.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows. After 2001,the cost of environmental regulation for all provinces in China showed an overall upward trend that was most obvious in the eastern region and least so in the northeast. Under environmental regulation the actual FDI in all provinces first accelerated and then slowed down. Prior to 2015,secondary industries attracted the most FDI. From the beginning of 2014,tertiary industries showed a significant increase in FDI. Thus,the"supply-side structural reform"has achieved initial results and promoted the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure,with the tertiary industry offering great potential for China's economic development. However,we must continue to accelerate structural adjustment. The counterfactual test shows that the factors affecting the change in FDI in different periods are not the same,but as the intensity of reform and opening up increased,the influence of total factor productivity and industrial structure on the distribution of FDI was significantly enhanced. Therefore,under the "new normal"economy,we still require steady growth to effectively promote supply-side structural reform and unswervinglyexpand the reform and opening up. The literature has mostly used measurement models and needs specific functional forms. There have also been many endogenous problems and subjective choices of instrumental variables. In addition,the data related to environmental regulation were generally not accessible,and the mechanism of impact is still unclear.The contribution of this paper is the construction of a correlation index using the sub-vector distance function of FDI to comprehensively decompose the changes in FDI under environmental regulation without specific data related to environmental regulation while avoiding the problem of endogeneity. The paper not only links the changes in FDI to total factor productivity and other input factors,but also analyzes the impact of China's economic structural change on FDI. Further research directions from this paper would be to construct an environmental regulation cost index for various industries,decompose the FDI inflows of various industries,analyze the factors influencing FDI inflows in various industries,and make recommendations on the introduction of foreign capital under the new opening-up pattern.
Since the reform and opening up of China,the openness and investment environment have continuously improved and the sustained rapid economic growth has led to China gradually becoming a major destination for global transnational investment. However,the Chinese economy is entering a "new normal,"with overcapacity and environmental pollution becoming increasingly prominent. In line with the principle that"lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,"building an ecological civilization is the millennium plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation,and the party's 19 th National Congress report clearly proposes to implement stringent environmental protection. In addition,global foreign direct investment( FDI)has generally declined and the international investment environment is not encouraging. Although foreign investment in mainland China has maintained growth,the growth rate has declined. In the face of the unequal international investment environment and increasingly serious domestic environmental problems,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of environmental regulation on FDI in light of the current state of the Chinese economy.This paper uses data envelopment analysis to explore the factors influencing China's FDI changes under environmental regulation. Using the sub-vector distance function of FDI,we define the production technology of environmental and non-environmental regulation to construct an index of the cost effect of environmental regulation and measure the cost of environmental regulation of 30 provinces in China over the 1999 – 2015 period. Furthermore,we decompose the changes in actual FDI and test the factors influencing the actual FDI changes under environmental regulations using a counterfactual test. We use the input and output data from China's 30 provinces( except Tibet) for 1998 – 2015,including four input data,three good outputs,and two bad outputs. The data come mainly from the statistical yearbook.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows. After 2001,the cost of environmental regulation for all provinces in China showed an overall upward trend that was most obvious in the eastern region and least so in the northeast. Under environmental regulation the actual FDI in all provinces first accelerated and then slowed down. Prior to 2015,secondary industries attracted the most FDI. From the beginning of 2014,tertiary industries showed a significant increase in FDI. Thus,the"supply-side structural reform"has achieved initial results and promoted the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure,with the tertiary industry offering great potential for China's economic development. However,we must continue to accelerate structural adjustment. The counterfactual test shows that the factors affecting the change in FDI in different periods are not the same,but as the intensity of reform and opening up increased,the influence of total factor productivity and industrial structure on the distribution of FDI was significantly enhanced. Therefore,under the "new normal"economy,we still require steady growth to effectively promote supply-side structural reform and unswervinglyexpand the reform and opening up. The literature has mostly used measurement models and needs specific functional forms. There have also been many endogenous problems and subjective choices of instrumental variables. In addition,the data related to environmental regulation were generally not accessible,and the mechanism of impact is still unclear.The contribution of this paper is the construction of a correlation index using the sub-vector distance function of FDI to comprehensively decompose the changes in FDI under environmental regulation without specific data related to environmental regulation while avoiding the problem of endogeneity. The paper not only links the changes in FDI to total factor productivity and other input factors,but also analyzes the impact of China's economic structural change on FDI. Further research directions from this paper would be to construct an environmental regulation cost index for various industries,decompose the FDI inflows of various industries,analyze the factors influencing FDI inflows in various industries,and make recommendations on the introduction of foreign capital under the new opening-up pattern.
引文
[1]陈诗一,2010,《中国的绿色工业革命:基于环境全要素生产率视角的解释(1980-2008)》,《经济研究》第11期,第21~34页。
[2]耿强、孙成浩和傅坦,2010,《环境管制程度对FDI区位选择影响的实证分析》,《南方经济》第6期,第39~50页。
[3]林伯强和刘鸿汛,2015,《对外贸易是否有利于提高能源环境效率---以中国工业行业为例》,《经济研究》第9期,第127~141页。
[4]宋在斗和陈秀山,2009,《外商直接投资与技术进步能相关性研究---基于对1981~2005年长三角与珠三角地区的分析》,《广东社会科学》第1期,第43~49页。
[5]涂正革和谌仁俊,2015,《排污权交易机制在中国能否实现波特效应?》,《经济研究》第7期,第160~173页。
[6]吴玉鸣,2006,《外商直接投资对环境规制的影响》,《国际贸易问题》第4期,第111~116页。
[7]吴延瑞,2008,《生产率对中国经济增长的贡献:新的估计》,《经济学(季刊)》第7卷第3期,第827~842页。
[8]王兵、吴延瑞和颜鹏飞,2010,《中国区域环境效率与环境全要素生产率增长》,《经济研究》第5期,第95~109页。
[9]王兵、於露瑾和杨雨石,2013,《碳排放约束下中国工业行业能源效率的测度与分解》,《金融研究》第10期,第128~141页。
[10]王群伟、周德群、葛世龙和周鹏,2009,《环境规制下的投入产出效率及规制成本研究》,《管理科学》第6期,第111~119页。
[11]杨子晖和田磊,2017,《“污染天堂”假说与影响因素的中国省际研究》,《世界经济》第5期,第148~172页。
[12]张军、吴桂英和张吉鹏,2004,《中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000》,《经济研究》第10期,第35~44页。
[13]朱平芳、张征宇和姜国麟,2011,《FDI与环境规制:基于地方分权视角的实证研究》,《经济研究》第6期,第133~145页。
[14]张宇和蒋殿春,2013,《FDI,环境监管与能源消耗:基于能耗强度分解的经验检验》,《世界经济》第3期,第103~123页。
[15]Cai,X.,Lu,Y.,Wu,M.,and Yu,L.2016.“Does Environmental Regulation Drive away Inbound Foreign Direct Investment?Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in China.”Journal of Development Economics,123∶73~85.
[16]Chung,S.2014.“Environmental Regulation and Foreign Direct Investment:Evidence from South Korea.”Journal of Development Economics,108∶222-236.
[17]Cole,M.A.,Elliott,R.J.,and Fredriksson,P.G.2006.“Endogenous Pollution Havens:Does FDI Influence Environmental Regulations?”The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,108(1):157-178.
[18]Copeland,B.R.,and Taylor,M.S.1994.“North-South Trade and the Environment.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics,109(3):755-787.
[19]Dong,B.,Gong,J.,and Zhao,X.2012.“FDI and Environmental Regulation:Pollution Haven or a Race to the Top?”Journal of Regulatory economics,41(2):216-237.
[20]Du,M.,Wang,B.,and Wu,Y.2014.“Sources of China's Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis based on the BML Index with Green Growth Accounting.”Sustainability,6(9):5983-6004.
[21]Fan,Y.,and Ullah,A.1999.“On Goodness-of-fit Tests for Weakly Dependent Processes using Kernel Method.”Journal of Nonparametric Statistics,11(1-3):337-360.
[22]Fre,R.1988.“Fundamentals of Production Theory.”Berlin:Springer-Verlag.
[23]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,Lindgren,B.,and Roos,P.1992.“Productivity Changes in Swedish Pharamacies 1980-1989:A non-parametric Malmquist Approach.”Journal of productivity Analysis,3(1-2):85-101.
[24]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,and Pasurka,C.A.2007.“Environmental Production Functions and Environmental Directional Distance Functions.”Energy,32(7):1055-1066.
[25]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,and Pasurka,C.A.2014.“Potential Gains from Trading Bad Outputs:The Case of USElectric Power Plants.”Resource and Energy Economics,36(1):99-112.
[26]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,and Pasurka,C.2016.“Technical Change and Pollution Abatement Costs.”European Journal of Operational Research,248(2):715-724.
[27]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,Pasurka,C.A.,and Shadbegian,R.2017.“Pollution Abatement and Employment.”Empirical Economics,54(1):259-285.
[28]Hanna,R.2010.“US Environmental Regulation and FDI:Evidence from a Panel of US-based Multinational Firms.”American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,2(3):158-189.
[29]Jugurnath,B.,Roucheet,B.,and Teeroovengadum,V.2017.“Moving To Greener Pastures:Untangling The Evidence About Fdi And Environmental Regulation In Eu Countries.”The Journal of Developing Areas,51(2):405-415.
[30]Li,M.2010.“Decomposing the change of CO 2 Emissions in China:a Distance Function Approach.”Ecological Economics,70(1):77-85.
[31]Li,Q.1996.“Nonparametric Testing of Closeness between Two Unknown Distribution Functions.”Econometric Reviews,15(3):261-274.
[32]List,J.A.2001.“US County-level Determinants of Inbound FDI:Evidence from a two-step Modified Count Data Model.”International Journal of Industrial Organization,19(6):953-973.
[33]Morgenstern,R.D.,Pizer,W.A.,and Shih,J.S.2002.“Jobs Versus the Environment:an Industry-level Perspective.”Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,43(3):412-436.
[34]Pasurka,C.2008.“Perspectives on Pollution Abatement and Competitiveness:Theory,Data,and Analyses.”Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,2(2):194-218.
[35]Porter,M.E.,Van Der Linde,C.2003.“Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship.”Journal of Economics and Management,46(3):384-402.
[36]Walter,I.,and Ugelow,J.L.1979.“Environmental Policies in Developing Countries.”Ambio,102-109.
[37]Wang,C.2013.“Changing Energy Intensity of Economies in the World and its Decomposition.”Energy Economics,40∶637-644.
[38]Wu,F.,Fan,L.W.,Zhou,P.,and Zhou,D.Q.2012.“Industrial Energy Efficiency with CO2 Emissions in China:a Nonparametric Analysis.”Energy Policy,49∶164-172.
[39]Zhou,P,Ang B W.2008.“Linear Programming Models for Measuring Economy-wide Energy Efficiency Performance.”Energy Policy,36(8):2911-2916.
1为了尽量避免出现不可行解,我们采用以下策略:t期的生产边界通过t-1期和t期的观测值共同构造;t+1期的生产边界通过t期和t+1期的观测值共同构造。
1根据Fre(1988),当假设生产技术是规模报酬不变时,产出导向的距离函数具有负一次齐次性。同样,对于本文定义的投入导向的子向量距离函数,对子向量具有正一次齐次性,对于其他要素具有负一次齐次性,即:αDi(X,FDI,Y,B)=Di(X,αFDI,Y,B)=Di(α-1X,FDI,α-1Y,α-1B),α>0。因此,Dt i(Xt,FDIt,YtBt)/FDIt=Dt i(Xt,1,Yt,Bt),Dt+1i(KDt,Lt,Et,FDIt+1,Yt1,Yt2,Yt3,SOt2,CODt)×Yt=Dt+1i(KDt/Yt,Lt/Yt,Et/Yt,FDIt+1,Yt1/Yt,Yt2/Yt,Yt3/Yt,SOt2/Yt,CODt/Yt)。
1关于技术进步对FDI的影响,有研究表明技术进步会在一定程度上降低FDI的流入(宋在斗和陈秀山,2009)。
1根据国家统计局最新分类标准,我国大陆地区整体上可划分为四大经济地区:东部地区是指北京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南10省(市);中部地区是指山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南6省;西部地区是指内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆12省(区、市);东北地区是指辽宁、吉林和黑龙江3省。本文不考虑西藏自治区。
2我们首先求解每年各个省份在环境规制和非环境规制下的方向性距离函数,然后分别计算出每年各个省份在环境规制和非环境规制下的潜在FDI,然后进行加总得到每年全国水平的潜在FDI。
1表中的结果是对每年各省份的结果取几何平均然后按年份相乘得到。
2表中的结果是对地区内各省份的结果取几何平均得到。
1目前的文献多研究FDI对国内投资的“挤出效应”。从投入的角度来看,FDI与国内投资之间为替代关系,我们将国内投资对FDI的影响也称为“挤出效应”。
1由于篇幅限制,我们省略了1999-2015年各地区实际FDI的变化及其分解结果,读者若有需要,可向作者索取相关资料。
1由于篇幅限制,我们省略了非参检验的具体结果,读者若有需要,可向作者索取相关资料。
[2]耿强、孙成浩和傅坦,2010,《环境管制程度对FDI区位选择影响的实证分析》,《南方经济》第6期,第39~50页。
[3]林伯强和刘鸿汛,2015,《对外贸易是否有利于提高能源环境效率---以中国工业行业为例》,《经济研究》第9期,第127~141页。
[4]宋在斗和陈秀山,2009,《外商直接投资与技术进步能相关性研究---基于对1981~2005年长三角与珠三角地区的分析》,《广东社会科学》第1期,第43~49页。
[5]涂正革和谌仁俊,2015,《排污权交易机制在中国能否实现波特效应?》,《经济研究》第7期,第160~173页。
[6]吴玉鸣,2006,《外商直接投资对环境规制的影响》,《国际贸易问题》第4期,第111~116页。
[7]吴延瑞,2008,《生产率对中国经济增长的贡献:新的估计》,《经济学(季刊)》第7卷第3期,第827~842页。
[8]王兵、吴延瑞和颜鹏飞,2010,《中国区域环境效率与环境全要素生产率增长》,《经济研究》第5期,第95~109页。
[9]王兵、於露瑾和杨雨石,2013,《碳排放约束下中国工业行业能源效率的测度与分解》,《金融研究》第10期,第128~141页。
[10]王群伟、周德群、葛世龙和周鹏,2009,《环境规制下的投入产出效率及规制成本研究》,《管理科学》第6期,第111~119页。
[11]杨子晖和田磊,2017,《“污染天堂”假说与影响因素的中国省际研究》,《世界经济》第5期,第148~172页。
[12]张军、吴桂英和张吉鹏,2004,《中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000》,《经济研究》第10期,第35~44页。
[13]朱平芳、张征宇和姜国麟,2011,《FDI与环境规制:基于地方分权视角的实证研究》,《经济研究》第6期,第133~145页。
[14]张宇和蒋殿春,2013,《FDI,环境监管与能源消耗:基于能耗强度分解的经验检验》,《世界经济》第3期,第103~123页。
[15]Cai,X.,Lu,Y.,Wu,M.,and Yu,L.2016.“Does Environmental Regulation Drive away Inbound Foreign Direct Investment?Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in China.”Journal of Development Economics,123∶73~85.
[16]Chung,S.2014.“Environmental Regulation and Foreign Direct Investment:Evidence from South Korea.”Journal of Development Economics,108∶222-236.
[17]Cole,M.A.,Elliott,R.J.,and Fredriksson,P.G.2006.“Endogenous Pollution Havens:Does FDI Influence Environmental Regulations?”The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,108(1):157-178.
[18]Copeland,B.R.,and Taylor,M.S.1994.“North-South Trade and the Environment.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics,109(3):755-787.
[19]Dong,B.,Gong,J.,and Zhao,X.2012.“FDI and Environmental Regulation:Pollution Haven or a Race to the Top?”Journal of Regulatory economics,41(2):216-237.
[20]Du,M.,Wang,B.,and Wu,Y.2014.“Sources of China's Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis based on the BML Index with Green Growth Accounting.”Sustainability,6(9):5983-6004.
[21]Fan,Y.,and Ullah,A.1999.“On Goodness-of-fit Tests for Weakly Dependent Processes using Kernel Method.”Journal of Nonparametric Statistics,11(1-3):337-360.
[22]Fre,R.1988.“Fundamentals of Production Theory.”Berlin:Springer-Verlag.
[23]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,Lindgren,B.,and Roos,P.1992.“Productivity Changes in Swedish Pharamacies 1980-1989:A non-parametric Malmquist Approach.”Journal of productivity Analysis,3(1-2):85-101.
[24]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,and Pasurka,C.A.2007.“Environmental Production Functions and Environmental Directional Distance Functions.”Energy,32(7):1055-1066.
[25]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,and Pasurka,C.A.2014.“Potential Gains from Trading Bad Outputs:The Case of USElectric Power Plants.”Resource and Energy Economics,36(1):99-112.
[26]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,and Pasurka,C.2016.“Technical Change and Pollution Abatement Costs.”European Journal of Operational Research,248(2):715-724.
[27]Fre,R.,Grosskopf,S.,Pasurka,C.A.,and Shadbegian,R.2017.“Pollution Abatement and Employment.”Empirical Economics,54(1):259-285.
[28]Hanna,R.2010.“US Environmental Regulation and FDI:Evidence from a Panel of US-based Multinational Firms.”American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,2(3):158-189.
[29]Jugurnath,B.,Roucheet,B.,and Teeroovengadum,V.2017.“Moving To Greener Pastures:Untangling The Evidence About Fdi And Environmental Regulation In Eu Countries.”The Journal of Developing Areas,51(2):405-415.
[30]Li,M.2010.“Decomposing the change of CO 2 Emissions in China:a Distance Function Approach.”Ecological Economics,70(1):77-85.
[31]Li,Q.1996.“Nonparametric Testing of Closeness between Two Unknown Distribution Functions.”Econometric Reviews,15(3):261-274.
[32]List,J.A.2001.“US County-level Determinants of Inbound FDI:Evidence from a two-step Modified Count Data Model.”International Journal of Industrial Organization,19(6):953-973.
[33]Morgenstern,R.D.,Pizer,W.A.,and Shih,J.S.2002.“Jobs Versus the Environment:an Industry-level Perspective.”Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,43(3):412-436.
[34]Pasurka,C.2008.“Perspectives on Pollution Abatement and Competitiveness:Theory,Data,and Analyses.”Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,2(2):194-218.
[35]Porter,M.E.,Van Der Linde,C.2003.“Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship.”Journal of Economics and Management,46(3):384-402.
[36]Walter,I.,and Ugelow,J.L.1979.“Environmental Policies in Developing Countries.”Ambio,102-109.
[37]Wang,C.2013.“Changing Energy Intensity of Economies in the World and its Decomposition.”Energy Economics,40∶637-644.
[38]Wu,F.,Fan,L.W.,Zhou,P.,and Zhou,D.Q.2012.“Industrial Energy Efficiency with CO2 Emissions in China:a Nonparametric Analysis.”Energy Policy,49∶164-172.
[39]Zhou,P,Ang B W.2008.“Linear Programming Models for Measuring Economy-wide Energy Efficiency Performance.”Energy Policy,36(8):2911-2916.
1为了尽量避免出现不可行解,我们采用以下策略:t期的生产边界通过t-1期和t期的观测值共同构造;t+1期的生产边界通过t期和t+1期的观测值共同构造。
1根据Fre(1988),当假设生产技术是规模报酬不变时,产出导向的距离函数具有负一次齐次性。同样,对于本文定义的投入导向的子向量距离函数,对子向量具有正一次齐次性,对于其他要素具有负一次齐次性,即:αDi(X,FDI,Y,B)=Di(X,αFDI,Y,B)=Di(α-1X,FDI,α-1Y,α-1B),α>0。因此,Dt i(Xt,FDIt,YtBt)/FDIt=Dt i(Xt,1,Yt,Bt),Dt+1i(KDt,Lt,Et,FDIt+1,Yt1,Yt2,Yt3,SOt2,CODt)×Yt=Dt+1i(KDt/Yt,Lt/Yt,Et/Yt,FDIt+1,Yt1/Yt,Yt2/Yt,Yt3/Yt,SOt2/Yt,CODt/Yt)。
1关于技术进步对FDI的影响,有研究表明技术进步会在一定程度上降低FDI的流入(宋在斗和陈秀山,2009)。
1根据国家统计局最新分类标准,我国大陆地区整体上可划分为四大经济地区:东部地区是指北京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南10省(市);中部地区是指山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南6省;西部地区是指内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆12省(区、市);东北地区是指辽宁、吉林和黑龙江3省。本文不考虑西藏自治区。
2我们首先求解每年各个省份在环境规制和非环境规制下的方向性距离函数,然后分别计算出每年各个省份在环境规制和非环境规制下的潜在FDI,然后进行加总得到每年全国水平的潜在FDI。
1表中的结果是对每年各省份的结果取几何平均然后按年份相乘得到。
2表中的结果是对地区内各省份的结果取几何平均得到。
1目前的文献多研究FDI对国内投资的“挤出效应”。从投入的角度来看,FDI与国内投资之间为替代关系,我们将国内投资对FDI的影响也称为“挤出效应”。
1由于篇幅限制,我们省略了1999-2015年各地区实际FDI的变化及其分解结果,读者若有需要,可向作者索取相关资料。
1由于篇幅限制,我们省略了非参检验的具体结果,读者若有需要,可向作者索取相关资料。