一种沿海石油储运基地溢油风险智能评价系统
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摘要
对于沿海石油储运基地,由于石油在储存、装卸及运输过程中存在潜在的风险,一旦发生突发事故,其后果就难以估量。因此,对其进行溢油风险评价就显得尤为重要。此文通过在中石油大连新港的实际调研,参照历史资料和相关规范和标准,对风险因素进行逐一分析,建立了风险评价指标体系;将本体与风险分析相结合,分析风险的可能原因、演变规律、规避措施和建议,建立了基于领域本体的风险分析模型;运用了多级模糊评价方法和领域本体模型对沿海石油储备基地进行风险评价和智能分析;最后开发了风险智能评价系统,实现了风险评价指标的管理、权重的计算、风险分析和评价等功能,最终得到评估结果,给出对策和建议。并以中石油大连新港为实例,对模型和系统进行验证,效果良好。
There is a potential risk during the oil storage, handling and transport in coastal oil storage bases. If an accident occurs, the consequences are enormous. So the oil spill risk assessment is particularly important. The paper analyzes the risk factors, and then establishes the risk evaluation indicator system based on historical data, related specifications and standards, actual research in Dalian New Port. The risk analysis model based on the domain ontology is established by combining the ontology with the risk analysis, and analyzing the possible causes, evolution, preventive measures and recommendations of risks. The multi-level fuzzy evaluation model is applied in the risk evaluation for the oil spill in coastal oil storage bases. Finally, an intelligent evaluation system is developed for implementing some functions such as the management of the risk evaluation index, weight calculation, risk analysis and evaluation, and the evaluation results are gained with giving the countermeasures and suggestions. This paper takes Dalian New Port for example to validate the models and system with good results.
There is a potential risk during the oil storage, handling and transport in coastal oil storage bases. If an accident occurs, the consequences are enormous. So the oil spill risk assessment is particularly important. The paper analyzes the risk factors, and then establishes the risk evaluation indicator system based on historical data, related specifications and standards, actual research in Dalian New Port. The risk analysis model based on the domain ontology is established by combining the ontology with the risk analysis, and analyzing the possible causes, evolution, preventive measures and recommendations of risks. The multi-level fuzzy evaluation model is applied in the risk evaluation for the oil spill in coastal oil storage bases. Finally, an intelligent evaluation system is developed for implementing some functions such as the management of the risk evaluation index, weight calculation, risk analysis and evaluation, and the evaluation results are gained with giving the countermeasures and suggestions. This paper takes Dalian New Port for example to validate the models and system with good results.
引文
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Fabbrocino G,Iervolino I,Orlando F,et al,2005.Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.Journal of hazardous materials,123(1):61-69.
Jiang L,Lu X,2005.Discussion on Environment Risk Assessment Methods of Leakage of Oil Storage.Jiang Su Environmental Science and Technology,1:018.
Nieto-Morote A,Ruz-Vila F,2011.A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment.International Journal of Project Management,29(2):220-231.
Price J M,Johnson W R,Marshall C F,et al,2003.Overview of the oil spill risk analysis(OSRA)model for environmental impact assessment.Spill Science&Technology Bulletin,8(5):529-533.
Shi L,Shuai J,Xu K,2014.Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks.Journal of hazardous materials,278:529-538.
Van Thienen-Visser K,Hendriks D,Marsman A,et al,2014.Bow-tie risk assessment combining causes and effects applied to gas oil storage in an abandoned salt cavern.Engineering Geology,168:149-166.
Xuan Y L,Zhang Q,Yi X B,et al,2012.Study of large oil storage tank zone fire risk forecast and early warning technology.Fire Science and Technology,2:027.
曹涛,张华兵,周利剑,等,2012.基于模糊层次分析法的管道第三方破坏风险评价.油气储运,31(2):99-102.
陈书雪,2009.港口溢油事故风险评估及防范研究.南开大学.
何天平,程凌,韩辉,2007.重大危险源辨识若干问题的探讨与研究.中国安全科学学报,(8):156-159.
刘胜.沿海石油储备溢油风险评价.大连海事大学,2012.
王江平,高爱坤,赖友兵,2008.基于多级模糊评价方法的公路景观评价分析.中外公路,28(5):24-28
徐建强,崔慧洁,李小平,等,2013.一种新型学位论文智能评价系统.计算机工程,39(7):224-227,232.
杨建强,张秋艳,罗先香,2012.海洋溢油生态损害快速预评估模式研究.海洋通报,30(6):702-706.
张华兵,冯庆善,郑洪龙,2008.油气长输管道定量风险评价.中国安全科学学报,(3):161-165
郑琳,刘艳,袁媛,等,2014.渤海倾倒区沉积物重金属富集特征及其潜在生态风险评价.海洋通报,33(3):342-348.
郑琳,刘艳,崔文林,等,2014.海洋监测数据质量评估研究.海洋通报,33(2):228-234.
Fabbrocino G,Iervolino I,Orlando F,et al,2005.Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.Journal of hazardous materials,123(1):61-69.
Jiang L,Lu X,2005.Discussion on Environment Risk Assessment Methods of Leakage of Oil Storage.Jiang Su Environmental Science and Technology,1:018.
Nieto-Morote A,Ruz-Vila F,2011.A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment.International Journal of Project Management,29(2):220-231.
Price J M,Johnson W R,Marshall C F,et al,2003.Overview of the oil spill risk analysis(OSRA)model for environmental impact assessment.Spill Science&Technology Bulletin,8(5):529-533.
Shi L,Shuai J,Xu K,2014.Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks.Journal of hazardous materials,278:529-538.
Van Thienen-Visser K,Hendriks D,Marsman A,et al,2014.Bow-tie risk assessment combining causes and effects applied to gas oil storage in an abandoned salt cavern.Engineering Geology,168:149-166.
Xuan Y L,Zhang Q,Yi X B,et al,2012.Study of large oil storage tank zone fire risk forecast and early warning technology.Fire Science and Technology,2:027.
曹涛,张华兵,周利剑,等,2012.基于模糊层次分析法的管道第三方破坏风险评价.油气储运,31(2):99-102.
陈书雪,2009.港口溢油事故风险评估及防范研究.南开大学.
何天平,程凌,韩辉,2007.重大危险源辨识若干问题的探讨与研究.中国安全科学学报,(8):156-159.
刘胜.沿海石油储备溢油风险评价.大连海事大学,2012.
王江平,高爱坤,赖友兵,2008.基于多级模糊评价方法的公路景观评价分析.中外公路,28(5):24-28
徐建强,崔慧洁,李小平,等,2013.一种新型学位论文智能评价系统.计算机工程,39(7):224-227,232.
杨建强,张秋艳,罗先香,2012.海洋溢油生态损害快速预评估模式研究.海洋通报,30(6):702-706.
张华兵,冯庆善,郑洪龙,2008.油气长输管道定量风险评价.中国安全科学学报,(3):161-165
郑琳,刘艳,袁媛,等,2014.渤海倾倒区沉积物重金属富集特征及其潜在生态风险评价.海洋通报,33(3):342-348.
郑琳,刘艳,崔文林,等,2014.海洋监测数据质量评估研究.海洋通报,33(2):228-234.