基于流量监测的西藏东南部然乌湖水量平衡季节变化及其补给过程分析
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摘要
青藏高原分布着亚洲大陆最大的湖泊群,其湖泊变化对气候变化响应敏感。基于遥感数据的湖泊面积变化不足以反映外流湖对气候变化的响应,需借助湖泊水量平衡过程分析来进一步研究各补给要素的变化。本文利用2015年4月-11月然乌湖水文气象监测数据,通过建立流量—水位关系,依据连续的水位数据重建了观测期内然乌湖主要径流的水文过程线,并结合SRM模型分析了然乌湖的水量平衡过程及季节变化。结果表明,观测期内然乌湖入湖水量约为18.49×10~8m~3,其中冰川融水约为10.06×10~8m~3,冰川融水占然乌湖补给的54%以上,湖面降水、湖面蒸发对湖泊水量平衡过程影响微弱。流域降水对湖泊的补给具有明显的季节特征。春季受西风南支扰动影响,然乌湖地区降水量大,降水是春季然乌湖的主要补给源。夏季和早秋由于气温升高,冰川消融量大,冰川融水是湖泊补给的主控因素。在未来气候变暖的条件下,冰川融水将会在湖泊补给中占据更大比例,并可能使得流域内的冰湖水量增加,产生潜在灾害风险。
The Tibetan Plateau boasts the greatest lake group in the Asian continent,where the lakes respond sensitively to climate change.For the exorheic lakes,the area changes based on remote sensing data are insufficient to reflect their responses to climatic changes.Water balance analyses of these lakes are needed for understanding the hydrological processes of lake basins and their relationships with climate changes.In this paper,we use the hydrological and meteorological monitoring data in the Ranwu Lake Basin from April to November in 2015 to examine the relationship between water level and runoff and reconstruct flux process line according to continuous water level data.Together with the snowmelt runoff model(SRM)simulation,we analyze the water balance process and its seasonal changes of the Ranwu Lake.The result shows that the total water yield inputted into the lake during the monitoring period is about 18.49×10~8m3,and that the glacial melt water is about 10.06×10~8m3,accounting for more than 54% of the lakes' supplies.Precipitation and evaporation of lake water surface and the lake water storage change have only slight effects on the process of lake water balance.Replenishment of the lake water is clearly seasonal as it depends on rainfall.Under the influence of southern branch of Westerlies,the Ranwu Lake area witnesses high precipitation,which is the main supply source in spring.Due to temperature rise in dummer and early autumn,a large amount of glacial melt water is a dominant factor of the water balance of this lake.With the temperature rise in the future,glacial melt water will occupy higher proportions in the total supplies of the lakes in this area.It will conduce to the speedy rise of the glacial lake level and lead to potential hazard risks.
The Tibetan Plateau boasts the greatest lake group in the Asian continent,where the lakes respond sensitively to climate change.For the exorheic lakes,the area changes based on remote sensing data are insufficient to reflect their responses to climatic changes.Water balance analyses of these lakes are needed for understanding the hydrological processes of lake basins and their relationships with climate changes.In this paper,we use the hydrological and meteorological monitoring data in the Ranwu Lake Basin from April to November in 2015 to examine the relationship between water level and runoff and reconstruct flux process line according to continuous water level data.Together with the snowmelt runoff model(SRM)simulation,we analyze the water balance process and its seasonal changes of the Ranwu Lake.The result shows that the total water yield inputted into the lake during the monitoring period is about 18.49×10~8m3,and that the glacial melt water is about 10.06×10~8m3,accounting for more than 54% of the lakes' supplies.Precipitation and evaporation of lake water surface and the lake water storage change have only slight effects on the process of lake water balance.Replenishment of the lake water is clearly seasonal as it depends on rainfall.Under the influence of southern branch of Westerlies,the Ranwu Lake area witnesses high precipitation,which is the main supply source in spring.Due to temperature rise in dummer and early autumn,a large amount of glacial melt water is a dominant factor of the water balance of this lake.With the temperature rise in the future,glacial melt water will occupy higher proportions in the total supplies of the lakes in this area.It will conduce to the speedy rise of the glacial lake level and lead to potential hazard risks.
引文
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[24]Gao Dengyi.Expeditionary studies on the moisture passage of the Yarlung Zangbo River.Chinese Journal of Nature,2008,30(5):301-303.[高登义.雅鲁藏布江水汽通道考察研究.自然杂志,2008,30(5):301-303.]
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[31]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,et al.Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements.Fao Irrigation&Drainage Paper,1998,56.
[32]Chen W L,Jiang Z H,Li L.Probabilistic projections of climate change over China under the SRES A1B scenario using28 AOGCMs.Journal of Climate,2011,24(17):4741-4756.
[33]Yang W,Yao T D,Guo X F,et al.Mass balance of a maritime glacier on the southeast Tibetan Plateau and its climatic sensitivity.Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2013,118(17):9579-9594.
[34]Yao T D,Li Z G,Yang W,et al.Glacial distribution and mass balance in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its influence on lakes.Chinese Science Bulletin,2010,55(20):2072-2078.
[35]Liu Yang.Research on the typical debris flows chain based on RS in Palongzangbu Basin of Tibet[D].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology,2013.[刘洋.基于RS的西藏帕隆藏布流域典型泥石流灾害链分析[D].成都:成都理工大学,2013.]
[2]Zhang G Q,Yao T D,Xie H J,et al.Lakes'state and abundance across the Tibetan Plateau.Chinese Science Bulletin,2014,59(24):3010-3021.
[3]Zhu L P,Xie M P,Wu Y H,et al.Quantitative analysis of lake area variations and the influence factors from 1971 to2004 in the Nam Co Basin of the Tibetan Plateau.Chinese Science Bulletin,2010,55(13):1294-1303.
[4]Singh P,Bengtsson L.Impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation for the rainfed,snowfed and glacierfed basins in the Himalayan region.Journal of Hydrology,2005,300(1-4):140-154.
[5]Fu Lixin,Chen Yaning,Li Weihong,et al.Relation between climate change and runoff volume in the headwaters of the Tarim River during the last 50 years.Journal of Desert Research,2010,30(1):204-209.[傅丽昕,陈亚宁,李卫红,等.塔里木河源流区近50a径流量与气候变化关系研究.中国沙漠,2010,30(1):204-209.]
[6]Kang S C,Xu Y W,You Q L,et al.Review of climate and cryospheric change in the Tibetan Plateau.Environmental Research Letters,2010,5(1):015101.
[7]Yang K,Ye B S,Zhou D G,et al.Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau.Climatic Change,2011,109(3/4):517-534.
[8]Li X Y,Xu H Y,Sun Y L,et al.Lake-level change and water balance analysis at Lake Qinghai,west China during recent decades.Water Resources Management,2007,21(9):1505-1516.
[9]Bianduo,Bianbaciren,Laba,et al.The response of water level of Selin Co to climate change during 1975-2008.Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(3):313-319.[边多,边巴次仁,拉巴,等.1975-2008年西藏色林错湖面变化对气候变化的响应.地理学报,2010,65(3):313-319.]
[10]Wu Y H,Zhu L P.The response of lake-glacier variations to climate change in Nam Co Catchment,central Tibetan Plateau,during 1970-2000.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2008,18(2):177-189.
[11]La Ba,Bian Duo,Chen Tao,et al.Possible causes of area change of Lake Tangra Yum Co Tibet based on TM images.Meteorological Science and Technology,2012,40(4):685-688.[拉巴,边多,陈涛,等.基于TM影像的西藏当惹雍错湖面积变化及可能成因.气象科技,2012,40(4):685-688.]
[12]Ye Q H,Zhu L P,Zheng H P,et al.Glacier and lake variations in the Yamzhog Yumco basin,southern Tibetan Plateau,from 1980 to 2000 using remote-sensing and GIS technologies.Journal of Glaciology,2007,53(183):673-676.
[13]Nie Y,Zhang Y L,Ding M J,et al.Lake change and its implication in the vicinity of Mt.Qomolangma(Everest),central high Himalayas,1970-2009.Environmental Earth Sciences,2013,68(1):251-265.
[14]Ye Q H,Yao T D,Zheng H X,et al.Glacier and lake co-variations and their responses to climate change in the Mapam Yumco Basin on Tibet.Geographical Research,2008,27(5):1178-1190.
[15]Wan Wei,Xiao Pengfeng,Feng Xuezhi,et al.Remote sensing analysisi for changes of lakes in the southeast of Qingtang area,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 30 years.Journal of Lake Sciences,2010,22(6):874-881.[万玮,肖鹏峰,冯学智,等.近30年来青藏高原羌塘地区东南部湖泊变化遥感分析.湖泊科学,2010,22(6):874-881.]
[16]Huang L,Liu J Y,Shao Q Q,et al.Changing inland lakes responding to climate warming in northeastern Tibetan Plateau.Climatic Change,2011,109(3/4):479-502.
[17]Li Junli,Sheng Yongwei,Luo Jiancheng,et al.Remotely sensed mapping of inland lake area changes in Tibet Plateau.Journal of Lake Sciences,2011,23(3):311-320.[李均力,盛永伟,骆剑承,等.青藏高原内陆湖泊变化的遥感制图.湖泊科学,2011,23(3):311-320.]
[18]Lei Y B,Yang K,Wang B,et al.Response of inland lake dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau to climate change.Climatic Change,2014,125(2):281-290.
[19]Yang R M,Zhu L P,Wang J B,et al.Spatiotemporal variations in volume of closed lakes on the Tibetan Plateau and their climatic responses from 1976 to 2013.Climatic Change,2017,140(3):621-633.
[20]Yao T D,Thompson L,Yang W,et al.Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings.Nature Climate Change,2012,2(9):663-667.
[21]Xin Xiaodong,Yao Tandong,Ye Qinghua,et al.Study of the fluctuations of glaciers and lakes around the Ranwu Lake of southeast Tibetan Plateau using remote sensing.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryolog,2009,31(1):19-26.[辛晓冬,姚檀栋,叶庆华,等.1980-2005年藏东南然乌湖流域冰川湖泊变化研究.冰川冻土,2009,31(1):19-26.]
[22]Guan Zhihua,Chen Chuanyou,Ou Yuxiong,et al.Rivers and Lakes in Tibet.Beijing:Science Press,1984:157-159.[关志华,陈传友,区裕雄,等.西藏河流与湖泊.北京:科学出版社,1984:157-159.]
[23]Ju Jianting,Zhu Liping,Huang Lei,et al.Ranwu Lake,a proglacial lake with the potential to reflect glacial activity in SE Tibet.Science Bulletin,2015,60(1):16-26.[鞠建廷,朱立平,黄磊,等.基于监测的藏东南然乌湖现代过程:湖泊对冰川融水的响应程度.科学通报,2015,60(1):16-26.]
[24]Gao Dengyi.Expeditionary studies on the moisture passage of the Yarlung Zangbo River.Chinese Journal of Nature,2008,30(5):301-303.[高登义.雅鲁藏布江水汽通道考察研究.自然杂志,2008,30(5):301-303.]
[25]Li Jijun,Zheng Benxing,Yang Xijin,et al.Glaciers in Tibet.Beijing:Science Press,1986.[李吉均,郑本兴,杨锡金,等.西藏冰川.北京:科学出版社,1986.]
[26]Gao Youxi,Jiang Shikui,Zhang Yiguang.Climate of Tibet Plateau.Beijing:Science Press,1984.[高由禧,蒋世逵,张谊光.西藏气候.北京:科学出版社,1984.]
[27]Lei Y B,Yao T D,Bird B W,et al.Coherent lake growth on the central Tibetan Plateau since the 1970s:Characterization and attribution.Journal of Hydrology,2013,483:61-67.
[28]Martinec J,Rango A,Roberts R.Snowmelt runoff model(SRM)User's Manual(Update Edition 2008,Windows Version 1.11).Las Cruces:New Mexico State University,2008.
[29]Guo Wanqin,Liu Shiyin,Yao Xiaojun,et al.The Second Glacier Inventory Dataset of China(Version 1.0).Lanzhou:Cold and Arid Regions Science Data Center,2014.[郭万钦,刘时银,姚晓军,等.中国第二次冰川编目数据集(V1.0).兰州:寒旱所科学数据中心,2014.]
[30]Yang Wei.Characteristics of glacier variation and discharge in the Ranwu Lake region,southeast Tibetan Plateau[D].Beijing:Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008.[杨威.藏东南然乌湖地区冰川变化与径流特征研究[D].北京:中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2008.]
[31]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,et al.Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements.Fao Irrigation&Drainage Paper,1998,56.
[32]Chen W L,Jiang Z H,Li L.Probabilistic projections of climate change over China under the SRES A1B scenario using28 AOGCMs.Journal of Climate,2011,24(17):4741-4756.
[33]Yang W,Yao T D,Guo X F,et al.Mass balance of a maritime glacier on the southeast Tibetan Plateau and its climatic sensitivity.Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2013,118(17):9579-9594.
[34]Yao T D,Li Z G,Yang W,et al.Glacial distribution and mass balance in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its influence on lakes.Chinese Science Bulletin,2010,55(20):2072-2078.
[35]Liu Yang.Research on the typical debris flows chain based on RS in Palongzangbu Basin of Tibet[D].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology,2013.[刘洋.基于RS的西藏帕隆藏布流域典型泥石流灾害链分析[D].成都:成都理工大学,2013.]