基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟法的电-热联合系统概率能量流分析
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摘要
电-热联合系统中分布式可再生能源出力波动大、电和热负荷随机变化。建立电-热联合系统含不确定性的稳态能量流模型。通过Sobol点列构造低偏差点列,基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟法对随机变量抽样,考虑随机变量之间的相关性,求解电-热联合系统的概率能量流。算例表明所提方法收敛稳定性好,为后续研究电-热联合系统安全分析奠定了基础。
The output of distributed renewable energy fluctu-ates greatly and the electrical and thermal loads vary randomly inthe combined heat and electricity system. A steady-state energyflow model with uncertainties for the combined heat and electricitysystem is established. A low deviation point series through Sobolpoint series is constructed. Based on the quasi-monte carlo simula-tion method, random variables are sampled, and the correlation be-tween random variables is considered to solve the probabilistic en-ergy flow of the combined heat and electricity system. The caseshows that the proposed method has good convergence stability,which lays a foundation for the subsequent research on the safetyanalysis of the combined heat and electricity system.
The output of distributed renewable energy fluctu-ates greatly and the electrical and thermal loads vary randomly inthe combined heat and electricity system. A steady-state energyflow model with uncertainties for the combined heat and electricitysystem is established. A low deviation point series through Sobolpoint series is constructed. Based on the quasi-monte carlo simula-tion method, random variables are sampled, and the correlation be-tween random variables is considered to solve the probabilistic en-ergy flow of the combined heat and electricity system. The caseshows that the proposed method has good convergence stability,which lays a foundation for the subsequent research on the safetyanalysis of the combined heat and electricity system.
引文
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[2]邓茂云,屈博,邢广进.能源互联网背景下用户能源服务的商业模式探索[J].电力需求侧管理,2019,21(3):59-62.DENG Maoyun, QU Bo, XING Guangjin. Business model exploration of customer energy service under the backgroundofenergyInternet[J].PowerDemandSideManagement,2019,21(3):59-62.
[3]王之龙,于东立,门向阳,等.含压缩空气储能的能源互联微网型系统优化配置[J].电力需求侧管理,2018,20(6):40-45.WANG Zhilong, YU Dongli, MEN Xiangyang, et al. Optimal configuration of energy interconnection microgrid system with compressed air energy storage[J]. Power Demand Side Management, 2018, 20(6):40-45.
[4]吴建中.欧洲综合能源系统发展的驱动与现状[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(5):1-7.WU Jianzhong. Drivers and state-of-the-art of integrated energy systems in Europe[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2016, 40(5):1-7.
[5]陈雁,文劲宇,程时杰.考虑输入变量相关性的概率潮流计算方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(22):80-87.CHENYan,WENJinyu,CHENGShijie.Probabilisticload flow analysis considering dependencies among input random variables[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(22):80-87.
[6]柳志航,卫志农,孙国强,等.计及参数模糊性的含风电场电力系统概率潮流计算[J].电网技术,2017,41(7):2 038-2 315.LIU Zhihang, WEI Zhinong, SUN Guoqiang, et al. Probabilistic power flow calculation of power system with wind farms considering fuzzy parameters[J]. Power System Technology, 2017, 41(7):2 038-2 315.
[7]陈璨,吴文传,张伯明,等.考虑光伏出力相关性的配电网概率潮流[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(9):41-47.CHEN Can, WU Wenchuan, ZHANG Boming, et al. Probabilistic load flow of distribution network considering correlated photovoltaic power output[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2015, 39(9):41-47.
[8]陈胜,卫志农,孙国强,等.电-气混联综合能源系统概率能量流分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(24):6 331-6 340.CHEN Sheng, WEI Zhinong, SUN Guoqiang, et al. Probabilistic energy flow analysis in integrated electricity and natural-gas energy systems[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2015, 35(24):6 331-6 340.
[9]孙娟,卫志农,孙国强,等.计及P2H的电-热互联综合能源系统概率能量流分析[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(6):62-68.SUN Juan, WEI Zhinong, SUN Guoqiang, et al. Analysis of probabilistic energy flow for integrated electricity-heat energy system with P2H[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment, 2017, 37(6):62-68.
[10]刘宇,高山,杨胜春,等.电力系统概率潮流算法综述[J].电力系统及其自动化,2014,38(23):127-135.LIU Yu, GAO Shang, YANG Shengchun, et al. Overview of power system probabilistic power flow algorithm[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2014, 38(23):127-135.
[11]王秀丽,张择策,侯雨伸.基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟法的主动配电网随机潮流计算[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(3):7-12.WANG Xiuli, ZHANG Zece, HOU Yushen. Stochastic load flow calculation based on Quasi-Monte Carlo method for active distribution network[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment, 2017, 37(3):7-12.
[12]侯雨伸,王秀丽,刘杰,等.基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2015,39(3):744-750.HOU Yushen, WANG Xiuli, LIU Jie, et al. A QuasiMonte Carlo method based power system reliability evaluation[J]. Power System Technology, 2015, 39(3):744-750.
[13] LIU X,JENKINS N,WU J,et al. Combined analysis of electricity and heat networks[D]. Cardiff,Britain:Cardiff University, 2014.