河南省工业用水效率的动态演变与分解效应——基于LMDI模型视角
|
摘要
基于2008—2015年河南省工业用水数据,采用用水系数与LMDI模型,分别对工业用水结构与影响因素进行研究。主要结论如下:(1)各行业用水系数有一定起伏,但行业耗水性质较为稳定。(2)总效应为正,区域工业用水量呈刚性发展趋势。产出效应对工业用水量的增加具有很强的促进作用,结构效应和技术效应对工业用水量的增加起到明显的抑制作用,是工业总用水量减少的主要因素,但产出效应对于工业用水量的增加大于结构效应和技术效应之和的节水。(3)产出效应实现了从负向正的根本性转变,各行业的产出效应差别较为明显,但增加的幅度有降低的趋势。(4)结构效应具有不确定性,变动剧烈且经常发生方向性变化。结构效应并不必然带来工业用水量的减少,且不同行业的结构效应持续性不同。(5)技术效应对工业用水具有明显抑制作用,但有减弱的趋势。
Based on the data of industrial water use of Henan Province during 2008-2015, this paper uses the water use coefficient evaluation and LMDI model to study the structure and influencing factors of industrial water use. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) the coefficient of water use in each industry fluctuate somewhat, but the nature of water consumption in each industry was relatively stable.(2) The total effect is positive, and the regional industrial water consumption shows a rigid development trend. The output effect has a strong promotion effect on the increase of industrial water consumption. The structural and technical effects have a significant inhibitory effect on the increase of industrial water consumption and are the main factor for the reduction of the total industrial water consumption. The increase of industrial water consumption influenced by the output effect is greater than the decrease of the industrial water consumption influences by the both structural and technical effects.(3) The output effect achieved a fundamental shift from negative to positive. The difference is obvious in output effect of various industries, but the increase rate has a decreasing trend.(4) Structural effect is uncertain, with drastic changes and frequent directional changes. Structural effect do not necessarily lead to a reduction in industrial water use, and the structural effect of different industries is different.(5) Technical effect has a significant inhibitory effect on industrial water use, but tends to weaken.
Based on the data of industrial water use of Henan Province during 2008-2015, this paper uses the water use coefficient evaluation and LMDI model to study the structure and influencing factors of industrial water use. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) the coefficient of water use in each industry fluctuate somewhat, but the nature of water consumption in each industry was relatively stable.(2) The total effect is positive, and the regional industrial water consumption shows a rigid development trend. The output effect has a strong promotion effect on the increase of industrial water consumption. The structural and technical effects have a significant inhibitory effect on the increase of industrial water consumption and are the main factor for the reduction of the total industrial water consumption. The increase of industrial water consumption influenced by the output effect is greater than the decrease of the industrial water consumption influences by the both structural and technical effects.(3) The output effect achieved a fundamental shift from negative to positive. The difference is obvious in output effect of various industries, but the increase rate has a decreasing trend.(4) Structural effect is uncertain, with drastic changes and frequent directional changes. Structural effect do not necessarily lead to a reduction in industrial water use, and the structural effect of different industries is different.(5) Technical effect has a significant inhibitory effect on industrial water use, but tends to weaken.
引文
[1] Kuznets S. Economic growth and income inequality[J]. American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[2] Romer D. Advanced Macroeconomics(Second Edition)[M].Shanghai:Shanghai University of Finance Economics Press&The McGraw-Hill Companies,2001:30-38.
[3] Munasinghe M. Is environmental degradation an inevitable consequence of economic growth:Tunneling through the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Ecological Economics,1999,29(1):89-109.
[4] Lopez R. The environment as a factor of production:The effects of economic growth and trade liberalization[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994,27(2):185-204.
[5] Bindra S P,Muntasser Moh'd,Manjri E K,et al. Water use efficiency for industrial development in Libya[J]. Desalination,2003,158(1-3):167-178.
[6]贾绍凤,张士锋,杨红,等.工业用水与经济发展的关系——用水库兹涅茨曲线[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(3):279-284.
[7] Jia Shaofeng,Yang Hong,Zhang Shifeng,et al. Industrial water use Kuznets Curve:Evidence from industrialized countries and implications for developing countries[J]. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2006,132(3):183-191.
[8] Brown L R,Halweil B. China's water shortage could shake world food security[J]. World Watch,1998,11(4):7-8.
[9]张月,潘柏林,李锦彬,等.基于库兹涅茨曲线的中国工业用水与经济增长关系研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1 117-1 126.
[10]雷玉桃,黄丽萍,张恒.中国工业用水效率的动态演进及驱动因素研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(2):159-170.
[11]岳立,赵海涛.环境约束下的中国工业用水效率研究——基于中国13个典型工业省区2003-2009年数据[J].资源科学,2011,33(11):2 071-2 079.
[12] Zhang Yue,Gu Alun,Pan Bolin. Relationship between industrial water consumption and economic growth in China based on Environmental Kuznets Curve[J]. Energy Procedia,2017,105:3 557-3 564.
[13]张陈俊,章恒全.新环境库兹涅茨曲线:工业用水与经济增长的关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(5):116-123.
[14]谢书玲,王铮,薛俊波.中国经济发展中水土资源的“增长尾效”分析[J].管理世界,2005(7):22-25.
[15]刘云枫,孔伟.基于因素分解模型的北京市工业用水变化分析[J].水电能源科学,2013(4):26-29.
[16] Wang Yousen,Bian Yiwen,Xu Hao. Water use efficiency and related pollutants'abatement costs of regional industrial systems in China:a slacks-based measure approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,101:301-310.
[17] Shang Yizi,Lu Shibao,Li Xiaofei,et al. Drivers of industrial water use during 2003-2012 in Tianjin,China:A structural decomposition analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,140(3):1 136-1 147.
[18]孙才志,谢巍.中国产业用水变化驱动效应测度及空间分异[J].经济地理,2011,31(4):666-672.
[19]张强,王本德,曹明亮.基于因素分解模型的水资源利用变动分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1 209-1 216.
[20]肖尧,杨校美.垂直专业化分工、产业结构调整与中国工业经济增长方式转变[J].经济经纬,2016,33(4):86-91.
[21]李俊.河南省工业用水总量的驱动分析与工业用水效率影响因素的研究[D].开封:河南大学,2015.
[2] Romer D. Advanced Macroeconomics(Second Edition)[M].Shanghai:Shanghai University of Finance Economics Press&The McGraw-Hill Companies,2001:30-38.
[3] Munasinghe M. Is environmental degradation an inevitable consequence of economic growth:Tunneling through the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Ecological Economics,1999,29(1):89-109.
[4] Lopez R. The environment as a factor of production:The effects of economic growth and trade liberalization[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994,27(2):185-204.
[5] Bindra S P,Muntasser Moh'd,Manjri E K,et al. Water use efficiency for industrial development in Libya[J]. Desalination,2003,158(1-3):167-178.
[6]贾绍凤,张士锋,杨红,等.工业用水与经济发展的关系——用水库兹涅茨曲线[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(3):279-284.
[7] Jia Shaofeng,Yang Hong,Zhang Shifeng,et al. Industrial water use Kuznets Curve:Evidence from industrialized countries and implications for developing countries[J]. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2006,132(3):183-191.
[8] Brown L R,Halweil B. China's water shortage could shake world food security[J]. World Watch,1998,11(4):7-8.
[9]张月,潘柏林,李锦彬,等.基于库兹涅茨曲线的中国工业用水与经济增长关系研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1 117-1 126.
[10]雷玉桃,黄丽萍,张恒.中国工业用水效率的动态演进及驱动因素研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(2):159-170.
[11]岳立,赵海涛.环境约束下的中国工业用水效率研究——基于中国13个典型工业省区2003-2009年数据[J].资源科学,2011,33(11):2 071-2 079.
[12] Zhang Yue,Gu Alun,Pan Bolin. Relationship between industrial water consumption and economic growth in China based on Environmental Kuznets Curve[J]. Energy Procedia,2017,105:3 557-3 564.
[13]张陈俊,章恒全.新环境库兹涅茨曲线:工业用水与经济增长的关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(5):116-123.
[14]谢书玲,王铮,薛俊波.中国经济发展中水土资源的“增长尾效”分析[J].管理世界,2005(7):22-25.
[15]刘云枫,孔伟.基于因素分解模型的北京市工业用水变化分析[J].水电能源科学,2013(4):26-29.
[16] Wang Yousen,Bian Yiwen,Xu Hao. Water use efficiency and related pollutants'abatement costs of regional industrial systems in China:a slacks-based measure approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,101:301-310.
[17] Shang Yizi,Lu Shibao,Li Xiaofei,et al. Drivers of industrial water use during 2003-2012 in Tianjin,China:A structural decomposition analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,140(3):1 136-1 147.
[18]孙才志,谢巍.中国产业用水变化驱动效应测度及空间分异[J].经济地理,2011,31(4):666-672.
[19]张强,王本德,曹明亮.基于因素分解模型的水资源利用变动分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1 209-1 216.
[20]肖尧,杨校美.垂直专业化分工、产业结构调整与中国工业经济增长方式转变[J].经济经纬,2016,33(4):86-91.
[21]李俊.河南省工业用水总量的驱动分析与工业用水效率影响因素的研究[D].开封:河南大学,2015.