基于市域尺度的中国化肥施用与粮食产量的时空耦合关系
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摘要
化肥施用是一把双刃剑,在促进粮食产量增加、保障粮食安全的同时,导致了生态环境退化,当前亟需辨明化肥施用与粮食生产之间的时空耦合关系,以便为维护粮食安全与生态安全提供有效的对策。以中国336个地级行政区为研究单元,分析2005-2015年中国粮食产量与化肥施用量的时空格局变化特征、化肥施用量与粮食产量的时空耦合关系及其动态变化过程。研究发现:(1)2005-2015年中国化肥施用量与粮食产量均呈上升趋势,化肥施用量的区内差异呈"粮食主产区—产销平衡区—粮食主销区"递减态势;而粮食产量的区域差异总体趋于增大,且呈"粮食主产区—产销平衡区—粮食主销区"递增态势。(2)化肥施用量增幅大致呈"东—中—西"阶梯式递增的趋势,而粮食产量增幅呈明显的南北分异特征。(3)从空间分布来看,胡焕庸线以东地区以"双高区"为主,胡焕庸线以西地区以"双低区"为主,且"低效施肥区"收缩,"他因素影响区"扩张。(4)期间,粮肥耦合关系以"双增型"为主,其他类型为辅,粮肥耦合关系主要向"双增型"与"他因素影响型"转变。
Fertilizer application is viewed as a double-edged sword, for it can increase grain production and ensures food security, at the same time, it can lead to degradation of ecoenvironment. At present, it is urgent to explore the spatial-temporal coupling relationship between fertilizer application and grain production, so as to provide effective measures and references to maintain food security and ecological safety. Selecting 336 administrative regions at the prefecture level as study units, the paper analyzes the changing features of China's grain production and fertilizer application in the spatial-temporal pattern, and the coupling relationship between fertilizer application and grain production as well as its dynamic process from 2005 to 2015. The findings are obtained as follows.(1) Both fertilizer application and grain production showed upward trends from 2005 to 2015, and regional differences in fertilizer application presents a decreasing trend from "main production areas, production-andsales balancing areas to main sales areas". Meanwhile, the overall trend of grain production among different regions tends to increase from "main production areas, production-and-sales balancing areas to main sales areas".(2) Fertilizer application roughly presents a stepwise increase from "East-Centre-West", while grain production growth apparently shows north-south differential characteristics.(3) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the areas east of Aihui-Tengchong line were featured as "double-high areas" compared with "double-low areas" west of the line; moreover, "inefficiently-fertilized" areas were shrinking and "other-factorinfluenced" areas expanding.(4) In the course, the coupling relationship between grain and fertilizer was dominated by "double-increase type" with other types positioning secondarily;and the relationship was mainly transforming towards "double-increase type" and "otherfactors-affected type".
Fertilizer application is viewed as a double-edged sword, for it can increase grain production and ensures food security, at the same time, it can lead to degradation of ecoenvironment. At present, it is urgent to explore the spatial-temporal coupling relationship between fertilizer application and grain production, so as to provide effective measures and references to maintain food security and ecological safety. Selecting 336 administrative regions at the prefecture level as study units, the paper analyzes the changing features of China's grain production and fertilizer application in the spatial-temporal pattern, and the coupling relationship between fertilizer application and grain production as well as its dynamic process from 2005 to 2015. The findings are obtained as follows.(1) Both fertilizer application and grain production showed upward trends from 2005 to 2015, and regional differences in fertilizer application presents a decreasing trend from "main production areas, production-andsales balancing areas to main sales areas". Meanwhile, the overall trend of grain production among different regions tends to increase from "main production areas, production-and-sales balancing areas to main sales areas".(2) Fertilizer application roughly presents a stepwise increase from "East-Centre-West", while grain production growth apparently shows north-south differential characteristics.(3) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the areas east of Aihui-Tengchong line were featured as "double-high areas" compared with "double-low areas" west of the line; moreover, "inefficiently-fertilized" areas were shrinking and "other-factorinfluenced" areas expanding.(4) In the course, the coupling relationship between grain and fertilizer was dominated by "double-increase type" with other types positioning secondarily;and the relationship was mainly transforming towards "double-increase type" and "otherfactors-affected type".
引文
[1]潘丹.中国化肥消费强度变化驱动效应时空差异与影响因素解析.经济地理, 2014, 34(3):121-126.[PAN D. Spatialtemporal difference of driving effects for fertilizer use intensity change and its determinants in China. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(3):121-126.]
[2]张福锁.中国肥料产业与科学施肥战略研究报告.北京:中国农业大学出版社, 2008.[ZHANG F S. China Fertilizer Industry and Scientific Fertilization Strategy Research Report. Beijing:China Agricultural University Press, 2008.]
[3] NEUMANN K, VERBURG P H, STEHFEST E, et al. The yield gap of global grain production:A spatial analysis. Agricultural Systems, 2010, 103(5):316-326.
[4] HANJRA M A, QURESHI M E. Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy,2010, 35(5):365-377.
[5]奚振邦,王寓群,杨佩珍.中国现代农业发展中的有机肥问题.中国农业科学, 2004, 37(12):1874-1878.[XI Z B,WANG Y Z, YANG P Z. The issue on organic manure in developing modern agriculture in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2004, 37(12):1874-1878.]
[6]吴玉鸣.中国区域农业生产要素的投入产出弹性测算:基于空间计量经济模型的实证.中国农村经济, 2010,(6):25-37.[WU Y M. Calculation of input-output elasticity of regional agricultural production factors in China:Empirical evidence from spatial econometric model. Chinese Rural Economy, 2010,(6):25-37.]
[7]周亮,徐建刚,蔡北溟,等.淮河流域粮食生产与化肥消费时空变化及对水环境影响.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(6):1053-1064.[ZHOU L, XU J G, CAI B M, et al. Spatio-temporal changes of grain production and fertilizer consumption in the Huaihe River Basin and its impact on water environment. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(6):1053-1064.]
[8] TAKESHIMA H, ADHIKARI R P, SHIVAKOTI S, et al. Heterogeneous returns to chemical fertilizer at the intensive margins:Insights from Nepal. Food Policy, 2017, 69:97-109.
[9] XU Z, GUAN Z, JAYNE T S, et al. Factors influencing the profitability of fertilizer use on maize in Zambia. Agricultural Economics, 2009, 40(4):437-446.
[10] XIN L, LI X, TAN M. Temporal and regional variations of China's fertilizer consumption by crops during 1998-2008.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(4):643-652.
[11] BURKE W J, JAYNE T S, BLACK R. Factors explaining the low and variable profitability of fertilizer application to maize in Zambia. Agricultural Economics, 2017, 48(1):115-126.
[12]曾希柏,陈同斌,林忠辉,等.中国粮食生产潜力和化肥增产效率的区域分异.地理学报, 2002, 57(5):539-546.[ZENG X B, CHEN T B, LIN Z H, et al. Regional disparities in grain production potential and fertilizer production increase efficiency in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(5):539-546.]
[13]栾江,仇焕广,井月,等.我国化肥施用量持续增长的原因分解及趋势预测.自然资源学报, 2013, 28(11):1869-1878.[LUAN J, QIU H G, JING Y, et al. Reasons for decomposition and trend forecast of fertilizer application increase in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(11):1869-1878.]
[14]王珊珊,张广胜,李秋丹,等.中国粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的驱动因素分解.农业现代化研究, 2017, 38(4):658-665.[WANG S S, ZHANG G S, LI Q D, et al. Decomposition of driving factors for increasing fertilizer application in main grain-producing areas in China. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2017, 38(4):658-665.]
[15]史常亮,郭焱,朱俊峰.中国粮食生产中化肥过量施用评价及影响因素研究.农业现代化研究, 2016, 37(4):671-679.[SHI C L, GUO Y, ZHU J F. Study on evaluation of fertilizer excessive application and its influencing factors in grain production in China. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2016, 37(4):671-679.]
[16]戈大专,龙花楼,李裕瑞,等.城镇化进程中我国粮食生产系统多功能转型时空格局研究:以黄淮海地区为例.经济地理, 2018, 38(4):147-156.[GE D Z, LONG H L, LI Y R, et al. The spatio-temporal pattern of multifunctional transformation of China's grain production system in the process of urbanization:The case of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Economic Geography, 2018, 38(4):147-156.]
[17] WU W B, TANG H J, YANG P. Scenario-based assessment of future food security. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2011, 21(1):3-17.
[18]姜会明,孙雨,王健,等.中国农民收入区域差异及影响因素分析.地理科学, 2017, 37(10):1546-1551.[JIANG H M,SUN Y, WANG J, et al. Regional differences of farmers'income in China and analysis of influencing factors. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(10):1546-1551.]
[19]刘东,封志明,杨艳昭,等.中国粮食生产发展特征及土地资源承载力空间格局现状.农业工程学报, 2011, 27(7):1-6.[LIU D, FENG Z M, YANG Y Z, et al. The status quo of China's grain production development and the status quo of land resources carrying capacity. Transactions of the CSAE, 2011, 27(7):1-6.]
[20]刘彦随,王介勇,郭丽英.中国粮食生产与耕地变化的时空动态.中国农业科学, 2009, 42(12):4269-4274.[LIU Y S,WANG J Y, GUO L Y. Temporal and spatial dynamics of grain production and cultivated land change in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2009, 42(12):4269-4274.]
[21]戈大专,龙花楼,张英男,等.中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及耦合关系.地理学报, 2017, 72(6):1063-1077.[GE D Z, LONG H L, ZHANG Y N, et al. The pattern and coupling relationship of county grain yield and agricultural labor change in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(6):1063-1077.]
[22]王千,金晓斌,阿依吐尔逊·沙木西,等.河北省粮食产量空间格局差异变化研究.自然资源学报, 2010, 25(9):232-235.[WANG Q, JIN X B, AYITUERXUN S, et al. Space difference research of the grain production in Hebei province.Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(9):232-235.]
[23]宋小青,欧阳竹. 1999-2007年中国粮食安全的关键影响因素.地理学报, 2012, 67(6):793-803.[SONG X Q, OUYANG Z. Key influencing factors of China's food security from 1999 to 2007. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(6):793-803.]
[24]王微恒,朱会义.现阶段中国农地利用专业化的主要限制因素.自然资源学报, 2018, 33(3):361-371.[WANG W H,ZHU H Y. Main limiting factor of the regional specialization of agricultural land use in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(3):361-371.]
[25]刘钦普.淮河流域化肥施用空间特征及环境风险分析.生态环境学报, 2015, 24(9):1512-1518.[LIU Q P. Spatial characteristics and environmental risk analysis of chemical fertilizer application in the Huaihe River Basin. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2015, 24(9):1512-1518.]
[26]陈同斌,曾希柏,胡清秀.中国化肥利用率的区域分异.地理学报, 2002, 57(5):531-538.[CHEN T B, ZENG X B,HU Q X. Regional distinction of fertilizer utilization in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(5):531-538.]
[27]赵亚莉,刘友兆,龙开胜.城市土地开发强度变化的生态环境效应.中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(7):23-29.[ZHAO Y L, LIU Y Z, LONG K S. Ecological environment effect of urban land development intensity change. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(7):23-29.]
(1)粮食主产区是指具有一定的地理、土壤、气候、技术等比较优势的粮食重点生产区,包括黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、河北、河南、山东、江苏、安徽、江西、湖北、湖南、四川13个省(自治区)。粮食主销区是指经济相对发达,但人多地少,粮食自给率低,粮食产量和需求缺口较大的粮食消费区,包括北京、天津、上海、浙江、福建、广东、海南7个省(市)。其余包括山西、宁夏、青海、甘肃、西藏、云南、贵州、重庆、广西、陕西、新疆在内的11个省(自治区)为产销平衡区,粮食基本能保持自给自足[18]。
[2]张福锁.中国肥料产业与科学施肥战略研究报告.北京:中国农业大学出版社, 2008.[ZHANG F S. China Fertilizer Industry and Scientific Fertilization Strategy Research Report. Beijing:China Agricultural University Press, 2008.]
[3] NEUMANN K, VERBURG P H, STEHFEST E, et al. The yield gap of global grain production:A spatial analysis. Agricultural Systems, 2010, 103(5):316-326.
[4] HANJRA M A, QURESHI M E. Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy,2010, 35(5):365-377.
[5]奚振邦,王寓群,杨佩珍.中国现代农业发展中的有机肥问题.中国农业科学, 2004, 37(12):1874-1878.[XI Z B,WANG Y Z, YANG P Z. The issue on organic manure in developing modern agriculture in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2004, 37(12):1874-1878.]
[6]吴玉鸣.中国区域农业生产要素的投入产出弹性测算:基于空间计量经济模型的实证.中国农村经济, 2010,(6):25-37.[WU Y M. Calculation of input-output elasticity of regional agricultural production factors in China:Empirical evidence from spatial econometric model. Chinese Rural Economy, 2010,(6):25-37.]
[7]周亮,徐建刚,蔡北溟,等.淮河流域粮食生产与化肥消费时空变化及对水环境影响.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(6):1053-1064.[ZHOU L, XU J G, CAI B M, et al. Spatio-temporal changes of grain production and fertilizer consumption in the Huaihe River Basin and its impact on water environment. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(6):1053-1064.]
[8] TAKESHIMA H, ADHIKARI R P, SHIVAKOTI S, et al. Heterogeneous returns to chemical fertilizer at the intensive margins:Insights from Nepal. Food Policy, 2017, 69:97-109.
[9] XU Z, GUAN Z, JAYNE T S, et al. Factors influencing the profitability of fertilizer use on maize in Zambia. Agricultural Economics, 2009, 40(4):437-446.
[10] XIN L, LI X, TAN M. Temporal and regional variations of China's fertilizer consumption by crops during 1998-2008.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(4):643-652.
[11] BURKE W J, JAYNE T S, BLACK R. Factors explaining the low and variable profitability of fertilizer application to maize in Zambia. Agricultural Economics, 2017, 48(1):115-126.
[12]曾希柏,陈同斌,林忠辉,等.中国粮食生产潜力和化肥增产效率的区域分异.地理学报, 2002, 57(5):539-546.[ZENG X B, CHEN T B, LIN Z H, et al. Regional disparities in grain production potential and fertilizer production increase efficiency in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(5):539-546.]
[13]栾江,仇焕广,井月,等.我国化肥施用量持续增长的原因分解及趋势预测.自然资源学报, 2013, 28(11):1869-1878.[LUAN J, QIU H G, JING Y, et al. Reasons for decomposition and trend forecast of fertilizer application increase in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(11):1869-1878.]
[14]王珊珊,张广胜,李秋丹,等.中国粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的驱动因素分解.农业现代化研究, 2017, 38(4):658-665.[WANG S S, ZHANG G S, LI Q D, et al. Decomposition of driving factors for increasing fertilizer application in main grain-producing areas in China. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2017, 38(4):658-665.]
[15]史常亮,郭焱,朱俊峰.中国粮食生产中化肥过量施用评价及影响因素研究.农业现代化研究, 2016, 37(4):671-679.[SHI C L, GUO Y, ZHU J F. Study on evaluation of fertilizer excessive application and its influencing factors in grain production in China. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2016, 37(4):671-679.]
[16]戈大专,龙花楼,李裕瑞,等.城镇化进程中我国粮食生产系统多功能转型时空格局研究:以黄淮海地区为例.经济地理, 2018, 38(4):147-156.[GE D Z, LONG H L, LI Y R, et al. The spatio-temporal pattern of multifunctional transformation of China's grain production system in the process of urbanization:The case of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Economic Geography, 2018, 38(4):147-156.]
[17] WU W B, TANG H J, YANG P. Scenario-based assessment of future food security. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2011, 21(1):3-17.
[18]姜会明,孙雨,王健,等.中国农民收入区域差异及影响因素分析.地理科学, 2017, 37(10):1546-1551.[JIANG H M,SUN Y, WANG J, et al. Regional differences of farmers'income in China and analysis of influencing factors. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(10):1546-1551.]
[19]刘东,封志明,杨艳昭,等.中国粮食生产发展特征及土地资源承载力空间格局现状.农业工程学报, 2011, 27(7):1-6.[LIU D, FENG Z M, YANG Y Z, et al. The status quo of China's grain production development and the status quo of land resources carrying capacity. Transactions of the CSAE, 2011, 27(7):1-6.]
[20]刘彦随,王介勇,郭丽英.中国粮食生产与耕地变化的时空动态.中国农业科学, 2009, 42(12):4269-4274.[LIU Y S,WANG J Y, GUO L Y. Temporal and spatial dynamics of grain production and cultivated land change in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2009, 42(12):4269-4274.]
[21]戈大专,龙花楼,张英男,等.中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及耦合关系.地理学报, 2017, 72(6):1063-1077.[GE D Z, LONG H L, ZHANG Y N, et al. The pattern and coupling relationship of county grain yield and agricultural labor change in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(6):1063-1077.]
[22]王千,金晓斌,阿依吐尔逊·沙木西,等.河北省粮食产量空间格局差异变化研究.自然资源学报, 2010, 25(9):232-235.[WANG Q, JIN X B, AYITUERXUN S, et al. Space difference research of the grain production in Hebei province.Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(9):232-235.]
[23]宋小青,欧阳竹. 1999-2007年中国粮食安全的关键影响因素.地理学报, 2012, 67(6):793-803.[SONG X Q, OUYANG Z. Key influencing factors of China's food security from 1999 to 2007. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(6):793-803.]
[24]王微恒,朱会义.现阶段中国农地利用专业化的主要限制因素.自然资源学报, 2018, 33(3):361-371.[WANG W H,ZHU H Y. Main limiting factor of the regional specialization of agricultural land use in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(3):361-371.]
[25]刘钦普.淮河流域化肥施用空间特征及环境风险分析.生态环境学报, 2015, 24(9):1512-1518.[LIU Q P. Spatial characteristics and environmental risk analysis of chemical fertilizer application in the Huaihe River Basin. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2015, 24(9):1512-1518.]
[26]陈同斌,曾希柏,胡清秀.中国化肥利用率的区域分异.地理学报, 2002, 57(5):531-538.[CHEN T B, ZENG X B,HU Q X. Regional distinction of fertilizer utilization in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(5):531-538.]
[27]赵亚莉,刘友兆,龙开胜.城市土地开发强度变化的生态环境效应.中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(7):23-29.[ZHAO Y L, LIU Y Z, LONG K S. Ecological environment effect of urban land development intensity change. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(7):23-29.]
(1)粮食主产区是指具有一定的地理、土壤、气候、技术等比较优势的粮食重点生产区,包括黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、河北、河南、山东、江苏、安徽、江西、湖北、湖南、四川13个省(自治区)。粮食主销区是指经济相对发达,但人多地少,粮食自给率低,粮食产量和需求缺口较大的粮食消费区,包括北京、天津、上海、浙江、福建、广东、海南7个省(市)。其余包括山西、宁夏、青海、甘肃、西藏、云南、贵州、重庆、广西、陕西、新疆在内的11个省(自治区)为产销平衡区,粮食基本能保持自给自足[18]。