公司跨界经营、信息披露与分析师预测
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摘要
通过手工搜集2003-2017年公司跨界经营数据,本文检验了公司跨界经营对分析师盈利预测的影响及其市场后果.实证结果表明,随着公司跨界程度的提高,分析师对其盈利预测的准确性下降,预测报告发布频率和预测修正幅度则会提高.同时,公司信息披露质量的提升有助于缓解公司跨界经营对分析师预测行为带来的不利影响.上述结果支持了信息处理成本假说和信息不确定性假说.最后,本文对跨界经营的市场后果做了检验,结果发现公司跨界经营程度越高,对分析师预测行为产生的消极作用越大,公司的市场折价程度越高.
Based on manually collected data on cross-border operation of the company from year 2003 to 2017,this paper examines the impact of the company's transboundary level on the analyst's earnings forecast behavior as well as the market consequence. The empirical results show that the higher the company's transboundary level,the lower the accuracy of the analyst's earnings forecast, and the higher the frequency of release as well as the forecast correction extent. At the same time, the improvement of the company's information disclosure quality will help ease the negative impact of the company's transboundary on analysts' forecasting behavior. The above results support the information processing cost hypothesis and information uncertainty hypothesis. Finally, the paper finds that the higher the company's transboundary level, the more negative the impact on the analyst's forecasted behavior and the higher the company's market discount.
Based on manually collected data on cross-border operation of the company from year 2003 to 2017,this paper examines the impact of the company's transboundary level on the analyst's earnings forecast behavior as well as the market consequence. The empirical results show that the higher the company's transboundary level,the lower the accuracy of the analyst's earnings forecast, and the higher the frequency of release as well as the forecast correction extent. At the same time, the improvement of the company's information disclosure quality will help ease the negative impact of the company's transboundary on analysts' forecasting behavior. The above results support the information processing cost hypothesis and information uncertainty hypothesis. Finally, the paper finds that the higher the company's transboundary level, the more negative the impact on the analyst's forecasted behavior and the higher the company's market discount.
引文
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[2] Dunn K,Nathan S. Diversified companies and analysts'earnings forecasts[J]. Journal of Investing, 2009, 18(2):33-41.
[3] Feldman E R,Gilson S C,Villalonga B. Do analysts add value when they most can? Evidence from corporate spin-offs[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2015, 35(10):1446-1463.
[4]王山慧,王宗军,田原.管理者过度自信、自由现金流与上市公司多元化[J].管理工程学报,2015, 29(2):103-111.Wang S H, Wang Z J, Tian Y. Managerial overconfidence, free cash flow and diversification of listed companies[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering&Engineering Management, 2015, 29(2):103-111.
[5] Miller D J, Yang H. The dynamics of diversification:Market entry and exit by public and private firms[J].Strategic Management Journal, 2016, 37(11):2323-2345.
[6]宋海旭,王福胜.实施多元化战略的上市公司其市场价值偏离基本价值的路径研究——基于证券分析师关注度的视角[J].管理评论,2013, 25(10):68-79.Song H X, Wang F S. A study on the deviation of a diversified Listco's market value from its basic value:From the perspective of security analyst coverage[J]. Management Review, 2013, 25(10):68-79.
[7] Alsmairat Y Y Y, Yusoff W S, Fairuz M, et al. International diversification, audit quality and firm value of Jordanian Public Listed Firm[J]. Academy of Accounting&Financial Studies Journal, 2018, 22(Specialissue).
[8] Kim H, Hoskisson R E, Lee S. Why strategic factor markets matter:"New"multinationals'geographic diversi?fication and firm profitability[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2015, 36(4):518-536.
[9]宿成建.股票非预期收益定价的三因素模型研究——基于中国股票市场的检验[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014, 34(3):600-612.Su C J. A new three-variables model on unexpected stock returns:Evidence from China[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory h Practice, 2014, 34(3):600-612.
[10] Veenman D, Verwijmeren P. Do investors fully unravel persistent pessimism in analysts'earnings forecasts?[J].The Accounting Review, 2018, 93(3):349-377.
[11] Hobbs J, Singh V. A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts[J]. Review of Financial Economics, 2015,24(1):42-51.
[12]廖明情,邓路,宋顺林.证券分析师角色:平抑情绪还是随波逐流?[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016, 36(6):1399-1414.Liao M Q,Deng L,Song S L. Analyst roles:Stabilizing mood or swimming?[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2016, 36(6):1399-1414.
[13]序明情,邓路,宋顺林.内部“军师”和外部“谋士”谁更重要——基于基金公司内部数据的经验证据[J1.南开管理评论,2018, 21(3):191—202.Liao M Q, Deng L, Song S L. Who is more important, internal counselor or external advisor? Empirical analysis based on internal data from fund manager companies[J]. Nankai Business Review, 2018, 21(3):191-202.
[14]徐广成,于悦,陈智.信息环境变化、投资者信息解读与特质信息含量[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016, 36(9):2226-2239.Xu G C, Yu Y, Chen Z. Information environment change, investors'comprehension and firm-specific information content[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2016, 36(9):2226-2239.
[15]韩洁,田髙良,封华.分析师跟进对并购绩效的影响研究[J]·系统工程理论与实践,2016, 36(2):400-412.Han J, Tian G L, Feng H. The impact of analyst following on merger performance[J]. Systems Engineering一Theory&Practice, 2016, 36(2):400-412.
[16] Bhandaxi A, Mammadov B, Thevenot M. The impact of executive inside debt on sell-side financial analyst forecast characteristics[J]. Review of Quantitative Finance&Accounting, 2018, 51(1):1-33.
[17] O'Brien P C, Tan H. Geographic proximity and analyst coverage decisions:Evidence from IPOs[J]. Journal of Accounting&Economics, 2015, 59(1):41-59.
[18] Wu Y, Liu T, Han L, et al. Optimistic bias of analysts'earnings forecasts:Does investor sentiment matter in China?[J]. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2018, 49:147-163.
[19] Lorenz T, Homburg C. Determinants of analysts'revenue forecast accuracy[J]. Review of Quantitative Finance&Accounting, 2017(1):1-43.
[20] Ramnath S, Rock S, Shane P. The financial analyst forecasting literature:A taxonomy with suggestions for further research[J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 2008, 24(1):34-75.
[21] Duru A, Reeb D M. International diversification and analysts'forecast accuracy and bias[J]. Accounting Review,2002, 77(2):415-433.
[22] Zuckerman E W. The categorical imperative:Securities analysts and the legitimacy discount[J]. American Journal of Sociology, 1999, 104(5):1398-1397.
[23] Zuckerman E W. Focusing the corporate product:Securities analysts and de-diversification[J]. Administrative Science Quarterly, 2000, 45(3):591-619.
[24] Gilson S C, Healy P M, Noe C F, et al. Analyst specialization and conglomerate stock breakups[J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 2001, 39(3):565-582.
[25] Benner M J. Securities analysts and incumbent response to radical technological change:Evidence from digital photography and internet telephony[J]. Organization Science, 2010, 21(1):42-62.
[26] Brown L D, Call A C, Clement M B, et al. Inside the"black box"of sell-side financial analysts[J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 2015, 53(1):1-47.
[27] Bhushan R. Firm characteristics and analyst folIowing[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2006, 11(2):255-274.
[28] Nichols N B, Street D L, Cereola S J. An analysis of the impact of adopting IFRS 8 on the segment disclosures of European blue chip companies[J]. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 2012, 21(2):79-105.
[29] Bens D A, Monahan S J, Steele L B. Aggregation and accounting informativeness[R]. Working Paper, 2015.
[30] Bugeja M, Czernkowski R, Moran D. The impact of the management approach on segment reporting[J]. Journal of Business Finance&Accounting, 2015, 42(3-4):310-366.
[31] Andr6 P, Filip A, Moldovan R. Segment disclosure quantity and quality under IFRS 8:Determinants and the effect of financial analysts'earnings forecast errors[J]. The International Journal of Accounting, 2016, 51(4):443-461.
[32] Herrmann D, Kang T, Kim J. International diversification and management earnings guidance:The effects of Reg FD[J]. Journal of International Accounting Research, 2010, 9(1):1-22.
[33] Denis D J, Denis D K, Yost K. Global diversification, industrial diversification, and firm value[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2002, 57(5):1951-1979.
[34]蔡卫星,曾诚·公司多元化对证券分析师关注度的影响——基于证券分析师决策行为视角的经验分析[J].南开管理评论,2010, 13(4):125-133.Cai W X, Zeng C. Research for the impact of diversification on security analysts following:Empirical analysis based on behavioral decision-making process[J]. Nankai Business Review, 2010, 13(4):125-133.
[35]许谨良.风险管理[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2006:354-389.Xu J L. Risk management[M]. Beijing:China Financial Press, 2006:354-389.
[36]胡铭.企业核心竟争力及其评估分析模型[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2002(1):34-37.Hu M. Enterprise core competitiveness and appraisal model[J]. Journal of Harbin University of Commerce,2002(1):34-37.
[37]刘湘斌.企业多元化经营及其条件分析[D].南京:河海大学,2003.Liu X B. The business diversification and its condition analysis[D]. Nanjing:Hohai University, 2003.
[38]楚岩枫.建立核心竞争力实施虚拟企业运作[J].南京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版),2002, 4(2):32-35.Chu Y F. Building up the competitiveness of virtual operation[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics&Astronautics, 2002, 4(2):32-35.
[39]孙维峰,孙华平.国际多元化、代理成本与资本结构——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(10):2556-2564.Sun W F, Sun H P. International diversification, agency cost and capital structure:Empirical evidence from Chinese listing corporations[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2014, 34(10):2556-2564.
[40] Shleifer A, Vishny R. Management entrenchment:The case of manager-specific investments[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 1989, 25:123-139.
[41] Jensen M C, Murphy K J. Performance pay and top-management incentives[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1990, 98(2):225-264.
[42] Stulz R. Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 1990, 26(1):3-27.
[43] Rajan R, Servaes H, Zingales L. The cost of diversity:The diversification discount and inefficient investment[J].Journal of Finance, 2000, 55(1):35-80.
[44]戴德明,邓璠.信息不对称与多元化折价关系研究——来自中国沪市上市公司的证据[J].财经研究,2008, 34(4):82-92.Dai D M, Deng F. The relation between the information asymmetry and the diversification discount:Evidence from listed firms in Shanghai exchange[J]. Study of Finance and Economics, 2008, 34(4):82-92.
[45] Hodder L, Hopkins P, Wood D. The effects of financial statement and informational complexity on analysts'cash flow forecasts[J]. The Accounting Review, 2008, 83(4):915-956.
[46] Jensen M. Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers[J]. American Economic Review, 1986,46(2):323-329.
[47] Bens D A, Monahan S J. Disclosure quality and the excess value of diversification[J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 2004, 42(4):691-730.
[48] Huang P, Zhang Y. Does enhanced disclosure really reduce agency costs? Evidence from the value of corporate cash holdings and dividends[C]//China Finance International Annual Conference, 2008.
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