温州市区手足口病SARIMA模型建立及应用
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摘要
基于温州市区(鹿城区、瓯海区、龙湾区)2011年1月至2017年12月月报手足口病新发病人数统计数据,构建了季节求和自回归-移动平均模型(SARIMA).结果表明SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)_([12])模型平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)为6.002%,能较好的拟合出温州市区手足口新发病人数的季节性和趋势性特征.在对拟合值进行指数化和周期性还原后,预测2018年1-6月温州市区手足口新发病人数仍维持较高水平,其中6月份达到最高1094 (95%CI:321-3723)例.研究结果将可为相关部门制定手足口病防控措施提供决策依据.
Based on the statistical data of the number of new cases of Hand, Foot and Mouth diseases reported monthly from January 2011 to December 2017 in Wenzhou urban districts(Lucheng, Ouhai and Longwan District), a seasonal summation autoregressive moving average model(SARIMA) is constructed. The results show that the average absolute percentage error of SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)_([12]) model is MAPE=6.002%, which can well fit seasonal and trend characteristics of the number of monthly cases of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou urban area. After exponential and periodic reduction of the fitted values, it is predicted that the number of new cases of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou urban area will remain at a high level from January to June 2018, with the highest number of 1,094(95% CI:321-2723) in June, 2018. These results will be helpful for developing prevention and control measures for Hand, Foot and Mouth disease.
Based on the statistical data of the number of new cases of Hand, Foot and Mouth diseases reported monthly from January 2011 to December 2017 in Wenzhou urban districts(Lucheng, Ouhai and Longwan District), a seasonal summation autoregressive moving average model(SARIMA) is constructed. The results show that the average absolute percentage error of SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)_([12]) model is MAPE=6.002%, which can well fit seasonal and trend characteristics of the number of monthly cases of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou urban area. After exponential and periodic reduction of the fitted values, it is predicted that the number of new cases of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou urban area will remain at a high level from January to June 2018, with the highest number of 1,094(95% CI:321-2723) in June, 2018. These results will be helpful for developing prevention and control measures for Hand, Foot and Mouth disease.
引文
[1]孙宝昌,陈栋,朱传新,等.温州地区手足口病流行特征及病原分析[J].预防医学,2015, 7:700-702.
[2]Nguyen HX, Chu C, Nguyen HLT, et al. Temporal and spatial analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in relation to climate factors:a study in the mekong delta region, Vietnam[J]. Sci. Total Environ, 2017, 581:766-772.
[3]张利萍,唐丹丹,郑彦玲,等.SARIMA模型在新疆手足口病发病率预测中的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2017, 47(9):115-122.
[4]常彩云,许华茹,赵梦娇,等.SARIMA模型在济南市手足口病预警预测中的应用[J].国际病毒学杂志,2017(6):397-401.
[5]吴喜之,刘苗.应用时间序列分析[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2014.
[6]钱素云,李兴旺.我国手足口病流行及诊治进展十年回首[J].中华儿科杂志,2018, 56(5):3:21-323.
[7]张珺茹,蔡源益,王爱,等. 2014年至2016年全国手足口病发病季节高峰的圆形分布分析[J].中国医科大学学报,2017,46(6):524-526.
[8]Chen C, Lin H, Li X, et al. Short-term effects of meteorological factors on children hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangzhou, China[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2014, 58(7):1605-1614.
[9]Wang J F, Guo Y S, Christakos G, et al. Hand, foot and mouth disease:spatiotemporal transmission and climate[J]. International Journal of Health Geographics, 2011, 10(1):25(pages 1-10).
[2]Nguyen HX, Chu C, Nguyen HLT, et al. Temporal and spatial analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in relation to climate factors:a study in the mekong delta region, Vietnam[J]. Sci. Total Environ, 2017, 581:766-772.
[3]张利萍,唐丹丹,郑彦玲,等.SARIMA模型在新疆手足口病发病率预测中的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2017, 47(9):115-122.
[4]常彩云,许华茹,赵梦娇,等.SARIMA模型在济南市手足口病预警预测中的应用[J].国际病毒学杂志,2017(6):397-401.
[5]吴喜之,刘苗.应用时间序列分析[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2014.
[6]钱素云,李兴旺.我国手足口病流行及诊治进展十年回首[J].中华儿科杂志,2018, 56(5):3:21-323.
[7]张珺茹,蔡源益,王爱,等. 2014年至2016年全国手足口病发病季节高峰的圆形分布分析[J].中国医科大学学报,2017,46(6):524-526.
[8]Chen C, Lin H, Li X, et al. Short-term effects of meteorological factors on children hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangzhou, China[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2014, 58(7):1605-1614.
[9]Wang J F, Guo Y S, Christakos G, et al. Hand, foot and mouth disease:spatiotemporal transmission and climate[J]. International Journal of Health Geographics, 2011, 10(1):25(pages 1-10).