Impacts of internal climate variability on meteorological drought changes in China
|
摘要
干旱受气候内部变率和外部强迫共同影响。本文利用地球系统模式CESM对历史时期和RCP8.5下的40个集合模拟的降水资料,并结合实际观测,研究了上述两因子对气象学干旱–标准化降水指数变化的贡献。通过对干旱频率、强度、持续时间、及最长持续时间的变化分析发现:在历史时期,气候内部变率对干旱变化起主要影响,而在未来(RCP8.5)情景下,外部强迫变得更为重要。本文建议,在利用模式模拟结果研究干旱变化时应考虑气候内部变率的影响。
Drought is one of the extreme events that can be caused by internal climate variability(ICV) and external forcing(EF). Here, the authors investigate the relative contributions of ICV and EF to meteorological drought changes in China using 40 members from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble(CESE_LE) project for historical simulations(in response to greenhouse gases and other EF) and future simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario. The authors use the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) to represent meteorological drought, and then define and analyze four drought parameters(frequency, severity, duration, and maximum duration) over eight regions of China. For historical periods, the ICV plays a dominant role in drought variation, while with global warming under the RCP8.5 scenario the EF becomes the prominent factor for drought characteristics.With the global warming signal, the effect of ICV varies with the drought parameters. This study suggests that the ICV should be taken into account when climate model simulations are used to investigate drought—in particular, for historical periods.
Drought is one of the extreme events that can be caused by internal climate variability(ICV) and external forcing(EF). Here, the authors investigate the relative contributions of ICV and EF to meteorological drought changes in China using 40 members from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble(CESE_LE) project for historical simulations(in response to greenhouse gases and other EF) and future simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario. The authors use the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) to represent meteorological drought, and then define and analyze four drought parameters(frequency, severity, duration, and maximum duration) over eight regions of China. For historical periods, the ICV plays a dominant role in drought variation, while with global warming under the RCP8.5 scenario the EF becomes the prominent factor for drought characteristics.With the global warming signal, the effect of ICV varies with the drought parameters. This study suggests that the ICV should be taken into account when climate model simulations are used to investigate drought—in particular, for historical periods.
引文
Chen,H.2013.“Projected Change in Extreme Rainfall Events in China by the End of the 21st Century Using CMIP5 Models.”Chinese Science Bulletin 58:1462-1472.doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2.
Dai,A.2013.“Increasing Drought Under Global Warming in Observations and Models.”Nature Climate Change 3:52-58.doi:10.1038/nclimate1633.
Dai,A.,and T.Zhao.2016.“Uncertainties in Historical Changes and Future Projections of Drought.Estimates of Historical Drought Changes.”Climatic Change.doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2.
Dai,A.,J.C.Fyfe,S.-P.Xie,and X.Dai.2015.“Decadal Modulation of Global Surface Temperature by Internal Climate Variability.”Nature Climate Change 5:555-559.doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2605.
Deser,C.,A.S.Phillips,V.Bourdette,and H.Teng.2012.“Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections:The Role of Internal Variability.”Climate Dynamics 38:527-546.doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
Deser,C.,A.S.Phillips,M.A.Alexander,and B.V.Smoliak.2014.“Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years:Uncertainty Due to Internal Variability.”Journal of Climate 27:2271-2296.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1.
Dong,B.,and A.Dai.2015.“The Influence of the Inter-Decadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe.”Climate Dynamics 45:2667-2681.
Feng,S.,and Q.Fu.2013.“Expansion of Global Drylands in a Warming World.”Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13:10081-10094.
Guttman,N.B.1999.“Accepting the Standardized Precipitation Index:A Calculation Algorithm.”JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35(2):311-322.
Hawkins,E.,and R.Suttond.2009.“The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:1095-2209.
Hurrell,J.,et al.2013.“The Community Earth System Model:A Framework for Collaborative Research.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94:1339-1360.doi:10.1175/BAMSWDW12W00121.1.
Kay,J.E.,et al.2015.“The Community Earth System Model(CESM)Large Ensemble Project:A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96:1333-1349.doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1.
Li,X.,W.Zhou,and Y.Chen.2015.“Assessment of Regional Drought Trend and Risk over China:A Drought Climate Division Perspective.”Journal of Climate 28:7025-7037.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00403.1.
Lorenz,E.N.1963.“Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.”Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20:130-141.
Ma,Z.2007.“The Interdecadal Trend and Shift of Dry/Wet over the Central Part of North China and Their Relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).”Chinese Science Bulletin 52:2130-2139.
Ma,S.,T.Zhou,A.Dai,and Z.Han.2015.“Observed Changes in the Distributions of Daily Precipitation Frequency and Amount over China from 1960 to 2013.”Journal of Climate 28:6960-6978.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0011.1.
McKee,T.B.,N.J.Doeskin,and J.Kleist.1993.“The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales.”Preprint,Eighth Conf.on Applied Climatology,179-184.Anaheim,CA:Amer.Meteor.Soc.
Song,J.,H.Yang,and C.Y.Li.2011.“A Further Study of Causes of the Severe Drought in Yunnan Province during the 2009/2010Winter(in Chinese).”Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences35:1009-1019.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.06.02.
Taylor,K.E.,R.J.Stouffer,and G.A.Meehl.2012.“An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93:485-498.
van Vuuren,D.,et al.2011.“The Representative Concentration Pathways:An Overview.”Climatic Change 109:5-31.
Wang,A.,T.Bohn,P.Mahanama,R.Koster,and D.Lettenmaier.2009.“Multimodel Ensemble Reconstruction of Drought over the Continental United States.”Journal of Climate 22:2694-2712.doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2586.1.
Wang,A.,D.Lettenmaier,and J.Sheffield.2011.“Soil Moisture Drought in China,1950-2006.”Journal of Climate 24:3257-3270.doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3733.1.
Wu,J.,and X.J.Gao.2013.“A Gridded Daily Observation Dataset Over China Region and Comparison with the Other Datasets.”Chinese Journal of Geophysics 56(4):1102-1111.doi:10.6038/cjg20130406.(in Chinese)
Wu,H.,M.J.Hayes,D.A.Wilhite,and M.D.Svoboda.2005.“The Effect of the Length of Record on the Standardized Precipitation Index Calculation.”International Journal of Climatology 25:505-520.
Yu,R.,B.Wang,and T.Zhou.2004.“Tropospheric Cooling and Summer Monsoon Weakening Trend Over East Asia.”Geophysical Research Letters 31:L22212.doi:10.1029/2004GL021270.
Zeng,X.,and K.Geil.2016.“Global Warming Projection in the 21st Century Based on an Observational Data-Driven Model.”Geophysical Research Letters 43:10947-10954.doi:10.1002/2016GL071035.
Zhao,T.,and A.Dai.2016.“Uncertainties in Historical Changes and Future Projections of Drought.Part II:Model-Simulated Historical and Future Drought Changes.”Climatic Change.doi:10.1007/s10584-016-4281742-x.
Zhou,T.,F.Song,R.Lin,X.Chen,and X.Chen.2013.“The 2012North China Floods:Explaining an Extreme Rainfall Event in the Context of a Long-term Drying Tendency.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94(9):S49-S51.
Dai,A.2013.“Increasing Drought Under Global Warming in Observations and Models.”Nature Climate Change 3:52-58.doi:10.1038/nclimate1633.
Dai,A.,and T.Zhao.2016.“Uncertainties in Historical Changes and Future Projections of Drought.Estimates of Historical Drought Changes.”Climatic Change.doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2.
Dai,A.,J.C.Fyfe,S.-P.Xie,and X.Dai.2015.“Decadal Modulation of Global Surface Temperature by Internal Climate Variability.”Nature Climate Change 5:555-559.doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2605.
Deser,C.,A.S.Phillips,V.Bourdette,and H.Teng.2012.“Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections:The Role of Internal Variability.”Climate Dynamics 38:527-546.doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
Deser,C.,A.S.Phillips,M.A.Alexander,and B.V.Smoliak.2014.“Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years:Uncertainty Due to Internal Variability.”Journal of Climate 27:2271-2296.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1.
Dong,B.,and A.Dai.2015.“The Influence of the Inter-Decadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe.”Climate Dynamics 45:2667-2681.
Feng,S.,and Q.Fu.2013.“Expansion of Global Drylands in a Warming World.”Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13:10081-10094.
Guttman,N.B.1999.“Accepting the Standardized Precipitation Index:A Calculation Algorithm.”JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35(2):311-322.
Hawkins,E.,and R.Suttond.2009.“The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:1095-2209.
Hurrell,J.,et al.2013.“The Community Earth System Model:A Framework for Collaborative Research.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94:1339-1360.doi:10.1175/BAMSWDW12W00121.1.
Kay,J.E.,et al.2015.“The Community Earth System Model(CESM)Large Ensemble Project:A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96:1333-1349.doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1.
Li,X.,W.Zhou,and Y.Chen.2015.“Assessment of Regional Drought Trend and Risk over China:A Drought Climate Division Perspective.”Journal of Climate 28:7025-7037.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00403.1.
Lorenz,E.N.1963.“Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.”Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20:130-141.
Ma,Z.2007.“The Interdecadal Trend and Shift of Dry/Wet over the Central Part of North China and Their Relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).”Chinese Science Bulletin 52:2130-2139.
Ma,S.,T.Zhou,A.Dai,and Z.Han.2015.“Observed Changes in the Distributions of Daily Precipitation Frequency and Amount over China from 1960 to 2013.”Journal of Climate 28:6960-6978.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0011.1.
McKee,T.B.,N.J.Doeskin,and J.Kleist.1993.“The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales.”Preprint,Eighth Conf.on Applied Climatology,179-184.Anaheim,CA:Amer.Meteor.Soc.
Song,J.,H.Yang,and C.Y.Li.2011.“A Further Study of Causes of the Severe Drought in Yunnan Province during the 2009/2010Winter(in Chinese).”Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences35:1009-1019.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.06.02.
Taylor,K.E.,R.J.Stouffer,and G.A.Meehl.2012.“An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93:485-498.
van Vuuren,D.,et al.2011.“The Representative Concentration Pathways:An Overview.”Climatic Change 109:5-31.
Wang,A.,T.Bohn,P.Mahanama,R.Koster,and D.Lettenmaier.2009.“Multimodel Ensemble Reconstruction of Drought over the Continental United States.”Journal of Climate 22:2694-2712.doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2586.1.
Wang,A.,D.Lettenmaier,and J.Sheffield.2011.“Soil Moisture Drought in China,1950-2006.”Journal of Climate 24:3257-3270.doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3733.1.
Wu,J.,and X.J.Gao.2013.“A Gridded Daily Observation Dataset Over China Region and Comparison with the Other Datasets.”Chinese Journal of Geophysics 56(4):1102-1111.doi:10.6038/cjg20130406.(in Chinese)
Wu,H.,M.J.Hayes,D.A.Wilhite,and M.D.Svoboda.2005.“The Effect of the Length of Record on the Standardized Precipitation Index Calculation.”International Journal of Climatology 25:505-520.
Yu,R.,B.Wang,and T.Zhou.2004.“Tropospheric Cooling and Summer Monsoon Weakening Trend Over East Asia.”Geophysical Research Letters 31:L22212.doi:10.1029/2004GL021270.
Zeng,X.,and K.Geil.2016.“Global Warming Projection in the 21st Century Based on an Observational Data-Driven Model.”Geophysical Research Letters 43:10947-10954.doi:10.1002/2016GL071035.
Zhao,T.,and A.Dai.2016.“Uncertainties in Historical Changes and Future Projections of Drought.Part II:Model-Simulated Historical and Future Drought Changes.”Climatic Change.doi:10.1007/s10584-016-4281742-x.
Zhou,T.,F.Song,R.Lin,X.Chen,and X.Chen.2013.“The 2012North China Floods:Explaining an Extreme Rainfall Event in the Context of a Long-term Drying Tendency.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94(9):S49-S51.