黔西南州降水及干旱特征分析
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摘要
利用贵州省黔西南州9个典型水文站、11个雨量站1985—2015年长系列降水量数据,采用一元回归分析、小波分析、Mann-Kendall、降水距平百分率分析等现代水文分析方法研究黔西南州的降水、干旱特征及变化规律。研究结果表明:黔西南州的降水量年际分布不均,3~5 a周期性出现一次降水高峰;降水量年内分布不均,夏秋多春冬少;降水量空间分布西多东少;干旱发生在秋冬季概率高且会延续影响春季,空间分布自南向北逐渐减小。
Based on the precipitation data of 9 typical hydrological stations and 11 rainfall stations from 1985 to 2015 in Southwestern Guizhou Autonomous Prefecture, the characteristics of precipitation and drought and the change regularity were studied by using modern hydrological analysis methods such as mathematical regression analysis, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall and precipitation anomaly percentage analysis. The result showed that the precipitation was unevenly distributed year to year, and a precipitation peak would occur periodically from 3 to 5 a. The precipitation was also uneven in a year, which was much more in summer and autumn. The precipitation in eastwas less than that of in west. Drought would appear in autumn and winter, which hadhigher probabilitythat it wouldcontinue into spring. Also, the spatial distribution of precipitation gradually decreasedfrom south to north.
Based on the precipitation data of 9 typical hydrological stations and 11 rainfall stations from 1985 to 2015 in Southwestern Guizhou Autonomous Prefecture, the characteristics of precipitation and drought and the change regularity were studied by using modern hydrological analysis methods such as mathematical regression analysis, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall and precipitation anomaly percentage analysis. The result showed that the precipitation was unevenly distributed year to year, and a precipitation peak would occur periodically from 3 to 5 a. The precipitation was also uneven in a year, which was much more in summer and autumn. The precipitation in eastwas less than that of in west. Drought would appear in autumn and winter, which hadhigher probabilitythat it wouldcontinue into spring. Also, the spatial distribution of precipitation gradually decreasedfrom south to north.
引文
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[9]贵州省干旱标准:DB 52/T 1030—2015[S].
[2]罗宇,郑俊.黔西南州工程性缺水问题初探[J].陕西水利,2011(1):53-54.
[3]蒋海明,魏娜.贵州省近47a来降水的小波变换分析[J].贵州气象,2008(1):18-20.
[4]王芬,孙旭东,杨溢,等.黔西南暴雨多时间尺度特征及其天气学成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2015,36(2):15-20+126.
[5]范元品,赵玉金,袁洪钊.近30a黔西南州气象干旱特征分析[J].贵州气象,2014,38(3):23-25.
[6]于延胜,陈兴伟.基于Mann-Kendall法的水文序列趋势成分比重研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(9):1585-1591.
[7]邱庆栋,章竹青,彭梦霜,等.基于Morlet小波的长沙降水周期分析[J].低碳世界,2016(33):97-98.
[8]桑燕芳.水文序列小波分析与预报方法的研究及应用[D].南京:南京大学,2011.
[9]贵州省干旱标准:DB 52/T 1030—2015[S].