贵州兴仁县烟草生长期内旱涝急转特征分析
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摘要
为了探究兴仁县烟草生长期内旱涝急转特征,利用兴仁县1961—2012年烟草生长期内(5—8月)的日降水资料,通过定义长、短周期旱涝急转指数,采用滑动平均法、降水距平法等,全面分析兴仁县烟草生长期内的长、短周期旱涝急转变化趋势、月降水变化规律。研究结果表明:烟草生长期内长周期旱涝急转以旱转涝为主,在今后涝转旱事件有增多趋势,并且强度有所降低;短周期旱转涝事件演变趋势为增加—减少—减少;5—6月旱转涝事件有增多趋势;6—7月是旱涝急转易发时段,且强度较高;7—8月涝转旱事件有减少趋势,且强度有所降低。在烟草成熟期,月均降水较多,降水波动较大,极易发生旱涝急转。此研究成果可为防灾减灾对策的制定提供理论依据。
In order to study the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alteration during the tobacco growing period in Xingren County, daily precipitation data within the tobacco growing period(May to August) was analyzed from 1961 to 2012. Therefore, Long Short-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index(LDFAI SDFAI) was defined with the employ of slip averaging method and precipitation anomaly method. A comprehensive analysis was carried out for the change trend of long short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation, as well as the monthly precipitation variation pattern during the tobacco growth period. The results showed that during the growing period, leading events of the long-cycle alteration was from drought to flood, but the alteration from flood to drought tended to increase in the future with weak impacts. The general trend for short-cycle alteration was increase-decrease-decrease: events of drought turning into flood increased during May and June; from June to July was the most occurring period of drought-flood abrupt alteration with strong impacts; and the events of flood-drought alteration reduced with weaker impacts during July and August. Generally, the monthly average precipitation was heavy with great fluctuation during the tobacco maturation period, and the chance of drought-flood would be high. This research results can provide theoretical basis to formulate countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation.
In order to study the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alteration during the tobacco growing period in Xingren County, daily precipitation data within the tobacco growing period(May to August) was analyzed from 1961 to 2012. Therefore, Long Short-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index(LDFAI SDFAI) was defined with the employ of slip averaging method and precipitation anomaly method. A comprehensive analysis was carried out for the change trend of long short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation, as well as the monthly precipitation variation pattern during the tobacco growth period. The results showed that during the growing period, leading events of the long-cycle alteration was from drought to flood, but the alteration from flood to drought tended to increase in the future with weak impacts. The general trend for short-cycle alteration was increase-decrease-decrease: events of drought turning into flood increased during May and June; from June to July was the most occurring period of drought-flood abrupt alteration with strong impacts; and the events of flood-drought alteration reduced with weaker impacts during July and August. Generally, the monthly average precipitation was heavy with great fluctuation during the tobacco maturation period, and the chance of drought-flood would be high. This research results can provide theoretical basis to formulate countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation.
引文
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[14]闪丽洁,张利平,陈心池,等.长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(12):2100-2107.
[15]邱雪柏,尹鹏达,陈伟,等.近51年遵义县气候变化对烤烟移栽期的影响[J].中国烟草科学,2013,34(4):36—41.
[16]孙小婷,李清泉,王黎娟.我国西南地区夏季长周期旱涝急转及其大气环流异常[J].大气科学,2017,41(6):1332-1342.
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[18]冉法芬,王海涛,许自成,等. 许昌烟区气候变化趋势和不同移栽期下气候适生性的综合评价[J].河南农业大学学报,2010,44(2):217-223.
[2] 黄茹.淮河流域旱涝急转事件演变及应对研究[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2015.
[3] 牛建利,何紫云,张天宇,等.旱涝急转对生产、生活与生态的影响及应对措施效果分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(S1):108-115.
[4] VOGEL J L, HUFF F A. Relation between St-Louis Urban Precipitation Anomaly and Synoptic Weather Factors [J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1978,17(8): 1141-1152.
[5] TINGM F ,WANG H. Summertime U. S. precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific sea surface temperature[J]. Journal of Climate,1997(10): 1853-1873.
[6] 李迅,袁东敏,尹志聪,等. 2011年长江中下游旱涝急转成因初步分析[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(1):41-50.
[7] 孙鹏,刘春玲,张强.东江流域汛期旱涝急转的时空演变特征[J].人民珠江,2012,33(5):29-34.
[8] 沈柏竹,张世轩,杨涵洧,等.2011年春夏长江中下游地区旱涝急转特征分析[J].物理学报,2012,61(10):530-540.
[9] 袁静,蒋新会,黄锦珠.水稻拔节孕穗期旱涝急转对其生理特性的影响[J]. 水利科技与经济,2008,14(4):259-263.
[10]周西,李林,单世华,等.旱涝急转对不同花生品种生理生化指标的影响[J].中国油料作物学报, 2012,34(1):56-61.
[11]肖伟,崔庭. 贵州省兴仁县发展烤烟种植的气候条件研究[J].北京农业,2014(21):198-200.
[12]贵州省质量技术监督局.贵州省干旱标准:DB52/T 1030—2015[S].
[13]吴志伟,李建平,何金海,等 . 大尺度大气环流异常与长江中下游夏季长周期旱涝急转[J]. 科学通报,2006,51(14) :1717-1724.
[14]闪丽洁,张利平,陈心池,等.长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(12):2100-2107.
[15]邱雪柏,尹鹏达,陈伟,等.近51年遵义县气候变化对烤烟移栽期的影响[J].中国烟草科学,2013,34(4):36—41.
[16]孙小婷,李清泉,王黎娟.我国西南地区夏季长周期旱涝急转及其大气环流异常[J].大气科学,2017,41(6):1332-1342.
[17]唐世凯.烟草生境[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,2011.
[18]冉法芬,王海涛,许自成,等. 许昌烟区气候变化趋势和不同移栽期下气候适生性的综合评价[J].河南农业大学学报,2010,44(2):217-223.