1986年-1991年日本经济泡沫程度的度量——基于虚拟经济与实体经济背离现象的研究
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摘要
以虚拟经济指数与实体经济指数的背离程度考察日本经济,股价指数年增长率与企业投资年增长率的背离程度超过3.93%时,地价指数年增长率与企业投资指数年增长率的偏离幅度超过-0.46%时,可视为严重经济泡沫。经计算,1986年-1989年日本经济的平均泡沫程度为18.56%,1986年-1990年日本经济的平均泡沫程度为12.04%。判断一个国家的经济泡沫程度或是否发生了经济泡沫,都应以该国宏观经济运行正常时段的虚拟经济与实体经济的背离程度作为参照。同时,经济泡沫的程度应该是一个时段的平均值。
The divergence of the virtual economic index and the real economic index can be used to examine Japanese economy.An economyis considered to have a serious bubble when the annual growth rate of the stock price deviates from the annual growth rate of the enterprise investment by more than 3.93%,or when the annual growth rate of the land price deviates from the annual growth rate of the enterprise investment by less than-0.46%.The results show that the average bubble degree of the Japanese economy in 1986-1989 was 18.56%,and the average bubble degree of the Japanese economy in 1986-1990 was 12.04%.Judging whether the economic bubble of a country has occured should be based on the degree of deviation between the virtual economy and the real economy during the normal period of macroeconomic operation.Meanwhile,the degree of economic bubble should be the average of a period.
The divergence of the virtual economic index and the real economic index can be used to examine Japanese economy.An economyis considered to have a serious bubble when the annual growth rate of the stock price deviates from the annual growth rate of the enterprise investment by more than 3.93%,or when the annual growth rate of the land price deviates from the annual growth rate of the enterprise investment by less than-0.46%.The results show that the average bubble degree of the Japanese economy in 1986-1989 was 18.56%,and the average bubble degree of the Japanese economy in 1986-1990 was 12.04%.Judging whether the economic bubble of a country has occured should be based on the degree of deviation between the virtual economy and the real economy during the normal period of macroeconomic operation.Meanwhile,the degree of economic bubble should be the average of a period.
引文
[1]邓美薇,张季风.日本泡沫经济生成与货币政策效果的内在关联---基于货币政策传导机制的实证分析[J].日本问题研究,2017,(3):27-35.
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[3]李伯瑜.浅析日本的泡沫经济[J].日本问题研究,1994(4):34-37.
[4]野口悠纪雄.土地经济学[M].北京商务印书馆,1997.
[5]JONATHAN MCCARTHY,RICHARD W PEACH.Are home prices the next"bubbles"?[J]FRBNY Economic Policy Review,2004,(11):26-41.
[6]袁志刚,樊潇彦.房地产市场理性泡沫分析[J].经济研究,2003(3):34-43.
[7]刘熀松.股票内在投资价值理论与中国股市泡沫问题[J].经济研究,2005(2):45-53.
[8]吕江林,曾鹏.中国股票市场泡沫度量---基于流通股内在价值分析[J].金融经济学研究,2012(1):78-86.
[9]李维哲,曲波.地产泡沫预警指标体系与方法研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2002,(4):99-101.
[10]野口悠纪雄.泡沫经济学[M].上海生活·读书·新知三联书店,2005.
[11]刘巍,张乃丽.日本总供求态势之历史演变研究[M].北京经济科学出版社,2016.
[2]谢芳.日本泡沫经济的原因[J].日本问题研究,1999(2):1-4.
[3]李伯瑜.浅析日本的泡沫经济[J].日本问题研究,1994(4):34-37.
[4]野口悠纪雄.土地经济学[M].北京商务印书馆,1997.
[5]JONATHAN MCCARTHY,RICHARD W PEACH.Are home prices the next"bubbles"?[J]FRBNY Economic Policy Review,2004,(11):26-41.
[6]袁志刚,樊潇彦.房地产市场理性泡沫分析[J].经济研究,2003(3):34-43.
[7]刘熀松.股票内在投资价值理论与中国股市泡沫问题[J].经济研究,2005(2):45-53.
[8]吕江林,曾鹏.中国股票市场泡沫度量---基于流通股内在价值分析[J].金融经济学研究,2012(1):78-86.
[9]李维哲,曲波.地产泡沫预警指标体系与方法研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2002,(4):99-101.
[10]野口悠纪雄.泡沫经济学[M].上海生活·读书·新知三联书店,2005.
[11]刘巍,张乃丽.日本总供求态势之历史演变研究[M].北京经济科学出版社,2016.