中国少数民族人口年龄结构问题研究——基于稳定人口理论的分析
|
摘要
文章基于稳定人口理论,利用人口普查数据,探讨中国少数民族人口年龄结构问题。研究发现,与汉族基准人口比例快速下降到1.0以下不同,少数民族基准人口比例目前仍在1.0以上。不同民族基准人口比例的差距扩大,离散程度大大增加。尽管少数民族人口年龄结构总体类型仍属于增长型,人口年龄结构类型变动与汉族人口的差距大体为10年左右。百万以上少数民族人口年龄结构类型转变为稳定型或衰减型的已有6个;虽然少数民族人口惯性比汉族人口大很多,而且与汉族人口惯性持续下降不同,但个别少数民族人口惯性在下降过程中出现波动。从人口年龄结构性问题来看,汉族、朝鲜族和满族将面临人口快速衰减问题的挑战;其他民族已经开始进入人口转变过程,处于人口转变不同阶段的少数民族人口将会走上汉族等超低生育率人口的道路。
Based on the theory of stable population, this paper uses census data to analyze the age structure of minority population in China. The study shows that, compared with Han whose benchmark ratio has declined dramatically to below 1.0, the benchmark ratio of minority population is still above 1.0. There is an enlarging gap between the benchmark ratios of different minorities, and the variation increases over time. Although the age structure of minority population still belongs to the growth type, its development process is lagged behind Han by about 10 years.Among the minorities with a population over one million, six of them have changed population age structure into the stable-or decreasing-type. Although the population momentum of minorities is much larger than that of Han,it assumes a downward trend over time as well, in spite of its fluctuations sometimes. Viewing from the population age structure, Han, Korean and Manchu will have very serious challenges of rapid population decline. Other minorities have begun the process of population transition as well, albeit at different stages at present. They will be unavoidably on the path toward low fertility as Han already did.
Based on the theory of stable population, this paper uses census data to analyze the age structure of minority population in China. The study shows that, compared with Han whose benchmark ratio has declined dramatically to below 1.0, the benchmark ratio of minority population is still above 1.0. There is an enlarging gap between the benchmark ratios of different minorities, and the variation increases over time. Although the age structure of minority population still belongs to the growth type, its development process is lagged behind Han by about 10 years.Among the minorities with a population over one million, six of them have changed population age structure into the stable-or decreasing-type. Although the population momentum of minorities is much larger than that of Han,it assumes a downward trend over time as well, in spite of its fluctuations sometimes. Viewing from the population age structure, Han, Korean and Manchu will have very serious challenges of rapid population decline. Other minorities have begun the process of population transition as well, albeit at different stages at present. They will be unavoidably on the path toward low fertility as Han already did.
引文
1.黄荣清(1996):《年龄结构对人口增长的作用力度量---兼谈中国少数民族人口年龄结构》,《中国人口科学》,第2期。
2.马瀛通(2012):《中国人口年龄结构合理转化问题研究》,《中国人口科学》,第1期。
3.马正亮(2013),《我国少数民族人口发展状况分析》,《贵州大学学报(社会科学版)》,第2期。
4.茅倬彦(2011):《人口惯性的测量方法》,《南方人口》,第3期。
5.王广州(2017):《生育政策调整目标人群总量与预期效果再检验》,《人口学刊》,第6期。
6.王广州(2018):《中国人口预测方法及未来人口政策》,《财经智库》,第3期。
7.张丽萍(2013),《中国少数民族人口的生育转变》,《黑龙江社会科学》,第5期。
8.张丽萍、王广州(2018):《全面二孩政策下的中国人口年龄结构问题---基于稳定人口理论的思考》,《华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)》,第3期。
9.查瑞传(1981):《静止人口和稳定人口》,《人口研究》,第1期。
10.Blue,L.,Espenshade,T.J.(2011),Population MomentumAcross the Demographic Transition.Population and Development Review.37(4):721-747.
11.Espenshade,T.J.,Tannen,J.B.C.(2015),Population Dynamics:Momentum of Population Growth.In Wright,J.D.,International Encyclopedia of the Social&Behavior Sciences.2nd edition.Elsevier.
12.Keyfitz,N.(1971),On the Momentum of Population Growth,Demography,8(1):71-80.
13.Keyfitz,N.,Caswell,H.(2005),Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility.Applied Mathematical Demography.New Youk Springer.
14.Lotka,A.J.(1925),Elements of Physical Biology.Baltimore:Williams and Wilkins Co.
15.Paul Vincent(1945),Potentiel d’accroissement d’une Population,Journal de la Scociétéde Statistique de Paris,1 re Série.Janvier-Février.86(1-2):16-39.
16.Smith,D.P.,Keyfitz,N.(1977),Mathematical Demography(Selected Paper),Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
(1)由于部分年份人口普查数据中分民族出生人口数无法获得,故以0岁人口近似代替。
2.马瀛通(2012):《中国人口年龄结构合理转化问题研究》,《中国人口科学》,第1期。
3.马正亮(2013),《我国少数民族人口发展状况分析》,《贵州大学学报(社会科学版)》,第2期。
4.茅倬彦(2011):《人口惯性的测量方法》,《南方人口》,第3期。
5.王广州(2017):《生育政策调整目标人群总量与预期效果再检验》,《人口学刊》,第6期。
6.王广州(2018):《中国人口预测方法及未来人口政策》,《财经智库》,第3期。
7.张丽萍(2013),《中国少数民族人口的生育转变》,《黑龙江社会科学》,第5期。
8.张丽萍、王广州(2018):《全面二孩政策下的中国人口年龄结构问题---基于稳定人口理论的思考》,《华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)》,第3期。
9.查瑞传(1981):《静止人口和稳定人口》,《人口研究》,第1期。
10.Blue,L.,Espenshade,T.J.(2011),Population MomentumAcross the Demographic Transition.Population and Development Review.37(4):721-747.
11.Espenshade,T.J.,Tannen,J.B.C.(2015),Population Dynamics:Momentum of Population Growth.In Wright,J.D.,International Encyclopedia of the Social&Behavior Sciences.2nd edition.Elsevier.
12.Keyfitz,N.(1971),On the Momentum of Population Growth,Demography,8(1):71-80.
13.Keyfitz,N.,Caswell,H.(2005),Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility.Applied Mathematical Demography.New Youk Springer.
14.Lotka,A.J.(1925),Elements of Physical Biology.Baltimore:Williams and Wilkins Co.
15.Paul Vincent(1945),Potentiel d’accroissement d’une Population,Journal de la Scociétéde Statistique de Paris,1 re Série.Janvier-Février.86(1-2):16-39.
16.Smith,D.P.,Keyfitz,N.(1977),Mathematical Demography(Selected Paper),Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
(1)由于部分年份人口普查数据中分民族出生人口数无法获得,故以0岁人口近似代替。