京津冀1980—2015年城市土地利用变化时空轨迹及未来情景模拟
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摘要
城市土地利用变化遥感监测与未来情景模拟对于准确把握城市扩张特征、优化城市用地格局进而促进区域协调发展具有重要意义。文章基于多期土地利用数据,对1980—2015年京津冀城市土地利用变化时空轨迹及驱动因素进行分析,并模拟了2015—2050年不同发展情景下城市用地空间格局。结果表明:近35年间,京津冀城市用地面积增加了5 574.80 km~2,扩张速度表现为"快速—慢速—快速—慢速"的时序特征。新增城市用地中有66.61%来源于耕地,重心整体向西北转移。GDP和城市人口增长对城市用地扩张起到重要推动作用,同时国家实施的一系列政策也有一定影响。到2050年基准情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下京津冀城市用地将分别增加4 122.14km~2、2 756.12 km~2和3 439.14 km~2,河北和北京郊区将成为城市扩张的重点潜力区和新的增长极。需要加强国土空间管控与城市生态空间优化布局以保障京津冀未来城市用地的有序开发和城市群生态安全。
Monitoring urban land use change and simulating future scenarios are important to accurately obtain the characteristic of urban expansion, optimize the development pattern of urban land, and promote the coordinated development of the region. Based on multi-stage remote sensing images and land use data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal trajectories and driving forces of the urban land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 1980 to2015, further simulated the spatial pattern of urban land use under different development scenarios from 2015 to 2050.The results showed that the area of urban land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration increased by 5574.80 km~2 in the past 35 years. The urban land expansion speed was characterized by "high speed-low speed-high speed-low speed".About 66.61% of the new developed urban land occupied cultivated land, and the gravity center of urban land had a trend to move towards the northwest. The growth of GDP(Gross Domestic Product) and urban population were the main driving factors of urban expansion, while a series of policies also had some effects on urban expansion. Until 2050, the area of urban land will increase by 4 122.14 km~2, 2 756.12 km~2 and 3 439.14 km~2 under the base scenario, cropland protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, respectively. The suburbs of Beijing and Hebei province will be the potential area and new growth pole of urban expansion. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the control of geographical space and the layout optimization of urban ecological space in order to ensure the orderly development of urban land and the ecological security of urban agglomeration.
Monitoring urban land use change and simulating future scenarios are important to accurately obtain the characteristic of urban expansion, optimize the development pattern of urban land, and promote the coordinated development of the region. Based on multi-stage remote sensing images and land use data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal trajectories and driving forces of the urban land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 1980 to2015, further simulated the spatial pattern of urban land use under different development scenarios from 2015 to 2050.The results showed that the area of urban land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration increased by 5574.80 km~2 in the past 35 years. The urban land expansion speed was characterized by "high speed-low speed-high speed-low speed".About 66.61% of the new developed urban land occupied cultivated land, and the gravity center of urban land had a trend to move towards the northwest. The growth of GDP(Gross Domestic Product) and urban population were the main driving factors of urban expansion, while a series of policies also had some effects on urban expansion. Until 2050, the area of urban land will increase by 4 122.14 km~2, 2 756.12 km~2 and 3 439.14 km~2 under the base scenario, cropland protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, respectively. The suburbs of Beijing and Hebei province will be the potential area and new growth pole of urban expansion. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the control of geographical space and the layout optimization of urban ecological space in order to ensure the orderly development of urban land and the ecological security of urban agglomeration.
引文
[1] United Nations. World Urbanization Prospects:The 2011 Revision[M]. United Nations Population Division:New York,NY,USA,2011.
[2] United Nations. World Urbanization Prospects:The 2014 Revision[M]. United Nations Population Division:New York,NY,USA,2014.
[3] Grimm N B,Faeth S H,Golubiewski N E,et al. Global change and the ecology of cities[J]. Science,2008,319(5 864):756-760.
[4] Haase D,Larondelle N,Andersson E,et al. A Quantitative Review of Urban Ecosystem Service Assessments:Concepts,Models,and Implementation[J]. AMBIO,2014,43(4):413-433.
[5] Yang G,Bowling L C,Cherkauer K A,et al. The impact of urban development on hydrologic regime from catchment to basin scales[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2011,103(2):237-247.
[6] Sterling S M,Ducharne A,Polcher J. The impact of global landcover change on the terrestrial water cycle[J]. Nature Climate Change,2012,3(4):385-390.
[7]黄金川,林浩曦.京津冀城市群多情景空间演化模拟[J].地理研究,2017,36(3):506-517.
[8]姚士谋,王辰,张落成,等.我国资源环境对城镇化问题的影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(3):94-100.
[9]匡文慧,刘纪远,邵全琴,等.区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其应用[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):178-188.
[10] Li X M,Zhou W Q,Ouyang Z Y. Forty years of urban expansion in Beijing:What is the relative importance ofphysical,socioeconomic,and neighborhood factors?[J]. Applied Geography,2013,38(1):1-10.
[11]刘翠玲,龙瀛.京津冀地区城镇空间扩张模拟与分析[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(2):217-228.
[12]王翠平,王豪伟,李春明,等.基于DMSP/OLS影像的我国主要城市群空间扩张特征分析[J].生态学报,2012,32(3):942-954.
[13]曾馨漫,刘慧,刘卫东.京津冀城市群城市用地扩张的空间特征及俱乐部收敛分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(12):2 045-2 056.
[14]曹诗颂,胡德勇,赵文吉,等.不透水地表盖度视角下中美城市群空间结构对比——以“京津冀”与“波士华”为例[J].地理学报,2017,72(6):1 017-1 031.
[15]匡文慧,杨天荣,颜凤芹.河北雄安新区建设的区域地表本底特征与生态管控[J].地理学报,2017,72(6):947-959.
[16] Kuang W H,Liu J Y,Zhang Z X,et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of impervious surface areas across China during the early 21st century[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(14):1 691-1 701.
[17] Tian Y C,Yin K,Lu D S,et al. Examining Land Use and Land Cover Spatiotemporal Change and Driving Forces in Beijing from1978 to 2010[J]. Remote Sensing,2014,6(11):10 593-10 611.
[18]王利伟,冯长春.转型期京津冀城市群空间扩展格局及其动力机制——基于夜间灯光数据方法[J].地理学报,2016,71(12):2 155-2 169.
[19]李进涛,刘彦随,杨园园,等. 1985—2015年京津冀地区城市用地时空演变特征及驱动因素研究[J].地理研究,2018,37(1):37-52.
[20] Li G D,Sun S A,Fang C L. The varying driving forces of urban expansion in China:Insights from a spatial-temporal analysis[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2018,174:63-77.
[21]文雅,龚建周,胡银根,等.基于生态安全导向的城市空间扩展模拟与分析[J].地理研究,2017,36(3):518-528.
[22] Liu X P,Liang X,Li X,et al. A future land use simulation model(FLUS)for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2017,168:94-116.
[23] Dong N,You L,Cai W J,et al. Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios:Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework[J].Global Environmental Change,2018,50:164-177.
[24]刘纪远,张增祥,庄大方,等. 20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析[J].地理研究,2003,22(1):1-12.
[25] Liu J Y,Liu M L,Tian H Q,et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of China's cropland during 1990-2000:An analysis based on Landsat TM data. Remote Sensing of Environment,2005,98(4):442-456.
[26]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等. 20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.
[27]刘纪远,宁佳,匡文慧,等. 2010—2015年中国土地利用变化的时空格局与新特征[J].地理学报,2018,73(5):789-802.
[28] Kuang W H,Liu J Y,Dong J W,et al. The rapid and massive urban and industrial land expansions in China between 1990and 2010:A CLUD-based analysis of their trajectories,patterns,and drivers[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2016,145:21-33.
[29]冀咏赞,闫慧敏,刘纪远,等.基于MODIS数据的中国耕地高中低产田空间分布格局[J].地理学报,2015,70(5):766-778.
[30]牛忠恩,闫慧敏,陈静清,等.基于VPM与MOD 17产品的中国农田生态系统总初级生产力估算比较[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(4):191-198.
[31]王佳月,辛良杰.基于Globe Land 30数据的中国耕地与粮食生产的时空变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(22):1-8.
[32]刘彦随,王介勇,郭丽英.中国粮食生产与耕地变化的时空动态[J].中国农业科学,2009,42(12):4 269-4 274.
[33]王开泳,丁俊,王甫园.全面二孩政策对中国人口结构及区域人口空间格局的影响[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(11):1 305-1 316.
[34]王开泳,陈妤凡,丁俊.全面放开二孩政策下中国人口增长对城乡建设用地的影响与需求预测[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(9):37-47.
[35] Pijanowski B C,Brown D G,Shellito B A,et al. Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes:A land transformation model[J]. Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2002,26(6):553-575.
[36]徐颖,吕斌.基于GIS与ANN的土地转化模型在城市空间扩展研究中的应用——以北京市为例[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2008,44(2):262-270.
[37]徐新良,闵稀碧,田展.基于GIS与LTM模型的上海市城市扩展模拟与预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(S2):136-139.
[38] Lu S S,Guan X L,He C,et al. Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Policy Implications of Urban Land Expansion in Metropolitan Areas:A Case Study of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration,Central China[J]. Sustainability,2014,6(8):4 723-4 748.
[39]樊杰.中国主体功能区划方案[J].地理学报,2015,70(2):186-201.
[40]顾朝林,管卫华,刘合林.中国城镇化2050:SD模型与过程模拟[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(7):818-832.
[41]王海军,张彬,刘耀林,等.基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群城镇扩展格局与驱动力多维解析[J].地理学报,2018,73(6):1 076-1 092.
[42] Tan M H,Li X B,Xie H,et al. Urban land expansion and arable land loss in China:a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Land Use Policy,2005,22(3):187-196.
[2] United Nations. World Urbanization Prospects:The 2014 Revision[M]. United Nations Population Division:New York,NY,USA,2014.
[3] Grimm N B,Faeth S H,Golubiewski N E,et al. Global change and the ecology of cities[J]. Science,2008,319(5 864):756-760.
[4] Haase D,Larondelle N,Andersson E,et al. A Quantitative Review of Urban Ecosystem Service Assessments:Concepts,Models,and Implementation[J]. AMBIO,2014,43(4):413-433.
[5] Yang G,Bowling L C,Cherkauer K A,et al. The impact of urban development on hydrologic regime from catchment to basin scales[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2011,103(2):237-247.
[6] Sterling S M,Ducharne A,Polcher J. The impact of global landcover change on the terrestrial water cycle[J]. Nature Climate Change,2012,3(4):385-390.
[7]黄金川,林浩曦.京津冀城市群多情景空间演化模拟[J].地理研究,2017,36(3):506-517.
[8]姚士谋,王辰,张落成,等.我国资源环境对城镇化问题的影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(3):94-100.
[9]匡文慧,刘纪远,邵全琴,等.区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其应用[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):178-188.
[10] Li X M,Zhou W Q,Ouyang Z Y. Forty years of urban expansion in Beijing:What is the relative importance ofphysical,socioeconomic,and neighborhood factors?[J]. Applied Geography,2013,38(1):1-10.
[11]刘翠玲,龙瀛.京津冀地区城镇空间扩张模拟与分析[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(2):217-228.
[12]王翠平,王豪伟,李春明,等.基于DMSP/OLS影像的我国主要城市群空间扩张特征分析[J].生态学报,2012,32(3):942-954.
[13]曾馨漫,刘慧,刘卫东.京津冀城市群城市用地扩张的空间特征及俱乐部收敛分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(12):2 045-2 056.
[14]曹诗颂,胡德勇,赵文吉,等.不透水地表盖度视角下中美城市群空间结构对比——以“京津冀”与“波士华”为例[J].地理学报,2017,72(6):1 017-1 031.
[15]匡文慧,杨天荣,颜凤芹.河北雄安新区建设的区域地表本底特征与生态管控[J].地理学报,2017,72(6):947-959.
[16] Kuang W H,Liu J Y,Zhang Z X,et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of impervious surface areas across China during the early 21st century[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(14):1 691-1 701.
[17] Tian Y C,Yin K,Lu D S,et al. Examining Land Use and Land Cover Spatiotemporal Change and Driving Forces in Beijing from1978 to 2010[J]. Remote Sensing,2014,6(11):10 593-10 611.
[18]王利伟,冯长春.转型期京津冀城市群空间扩展格局及其动力机制——基于夜间灯光数据方法[J].地理学报,2016,71(12):2 155-2 169.
[19]李进涛,刘彦随,杨园园,等. 1985—2015年京津冀地区城市用地时空演变特征及驱动因素研究[J].地理研究,2018,37(1):37-52.
[20] Li G D,Sun S A,Fang C L. The varying driving forces of urban expansion in China:Insights from a spatial-temporal analysis[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2018,174:63-77.
[21]文雅,龚建周,胡银根,等.基于生态安全导向的城市空间扩展模拟与分析[J].地理研究,2017,36(3):518-528.
[22] Liu X P,Liang X,Li X,et al. A future land use simulation model(FLUS)for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2017,168:94-116.
[23] Dong N,You L,Cai W J,et al. Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios:Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework[J].Global Environmental Change,2018,50:164-177.
[24]刘纪远,张增祥,庄大方,等. 20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析[J].地理研究,2003,22(1):1-12.
[25] Liu J Y,Liu M L,Tian H Q,et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of China's cropland during 1990-2000:An analysis based on Landsat TM data. Remote Sensing of Environment,2005,98(4):442-456.
[26]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等. 20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.
[27]刘纪远,宁佳,匡文慧,等. 2010—2015年中国土地利用变化的时空格局与新特征[J].地理学报,2018,73(5):789-802.
[28] Kuang W H,Liu J Y,Dong J W,et al. The rapid and massive urban and industrial land expansions in China between 1990and 2010:A CLUD-based analysis of their trajectories,patterns,and drivers[J]. Landscape&Urban Planning,2016,145:21-33.
[29]冀咏赞,闫慧敏,刘纪远,等.基于MODIS数据的中国耕地高中低产田空间分布格局[J].地理学报,2015,70(5):766-778.
[30]牛忠恩,闫慧敏,陈静清,等.基于VPM与MOD 17产品的中国农田生态系统总初级生产力估算比较[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(4):191-198.
[31]王佳月,辛良杰.基于Globe Land 30数据的中国耕地与粮食生产的时空变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(22):1-8.
[32]刘彦随,王介勇,郭丽英.中国粮食生产与耕地变化的时空动态[J].中国农业科学,2009,42(12):4 269-4 274.
[33]王开泳,丁俊,王甫园.全面二孩政策对中国人口结构及区域人口空间格局的影响[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(11):1 305-1 316.
[34]王开泳,陈妤凡,丁俊.全面放开二孩政策下中国人口增长对城乡建设用地的影响与需求预测[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(9):37-47.
[35] Pijanowski B C,Brown D G,Shellito B A,et al. Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes:A land transformation model[J]. Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2002,26(6):553-575.
[36]徐颖,吕斌.基于GIS与ANN的土地转化模型在城市空间扩展研究中的应用——以北京市为例[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2008,44(2):262-270.
[37]徐新良,闵稀碧,田展.基于GIS与LTM模型的上海市城市扩展模拟与预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(S2):136-139.
[38] Lu S S,Guan X L,He C,et al. Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Policy Implications of Urban Land Expansion in Metropolitan Areas:A Case Study of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration,Central China[J]. Sustainability,2014,6(8):4 723-4 748.
[39]樊杰.中国主体功能区划方案[J].地理学报,2015,70(2):186-201.
[40]顾朝林,管卫华,刘合林.中国城镇化2050:SD模型与过程模拟[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(7):818-832.
[41]王海军,张彬,刘耀林,等.基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群城镇扩展格局与驱动力多维解析[J].地理学报,2018,73(6):1 076-1 092.
[42] Tan M H,Li X B,Xie H,et al. Urban land expansion and arable land loss in China:a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Land Use Policy,2005,22(3):187-196.