气候工程对中国不同等级降雨结构的可能影响
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摘要
气候工程作为人类快速有效给地球降温的手段,在应对气候变化的国际谈判中越来成为各界讨论的焦点话题之一。为诊断当前GeoMIP设定的当量下,气候工程不同实施阶段是否对中国降雨结构产生影响。依据中国气象局中央气象台的日降雨强度划分标准,基于BNU～ESM模式的太阳辐射管理气候工程G4实验和RCP4.5情景下非气候工程的0.5°×0.5°空间分辨率日值降水数据,对比分析气候工程实施的3个不同时段,即2010～2099、2020～2069和2070～2099年,中国不同等级降雨雨量和雨日贡献率空间差异特征。结果表明:(1)在气候态上,3个时段两种情景下的中国不同等级降雨结构的气候态高低分异特征具有较好的一致性。气候工程并未改变中国降雨结构的空间高低分异特征。(2)在气候工程与非气候工程差异上,气候工程实施的不同阶段确实可以对中国不同区域的降雨结构产生影响,且不同时段差异性有所不同。(3)在气候工程实施前后差异上,气候工程实施中相比实施后促进了中雨、大雨和总暴雨事件,而抑制了小雨事件。在当前GeoMIP模式设定的当量下,气候工程实施会对中国降雨结构会产生不同层面的影响。
Climate engineering, as a fast and effective means of cooling the earth, has become one of the focuses of discussion in the international negotiations on climate change. To diagnose whether different stages of climate engineering have an impact on rainfall structure in China under the current GeoMIP model. According to the daily rainfall intensity classification standard of the Central Meteorological Observatory of China Meteorological Administration, 0.5°×0.5°spatial resolution daily precipitation data of the solar radiation management climate engineering G4 experiment and RCP 4.5 scenario based on the BNU-ESM model, the spatial differences of rainfall amounts and rainfall days contribution rate of different grades in China during the three different periods of implementation of climate engineering, namely, 2010-2099, 2020-2069 and 2070-2099, are compared and analyzed. The results show that: Firstly, in the climatic state, there is a good consistency between the climatic state of different grades rainfall in China in three periods under the two scenarios. Climate engineering has not changed the spatial characteristics of rainfall structure in China. Secondly, in the differences between climate engineering and non-climate engineering, different stages of implementation of climate engineering can indeed have an impact on rainfall structure in different regions of China, and the differences are different in different periods. Thirdly, in the difference before and after the implementation of climate engineering, the implementation of climate engineering promote moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall and total rainstorm events, but restrained light rainfall events. Under the current GeoMIP model, the implementation of climate engineering will have different impacts on rainfall structure in China.
Climate engineering, as a fast and effective means of cooling the earth, has become one of the focuses of discussion in the international negotiations on climate change. To diagnose whether different stages of climate engineering have an impact on rainfall structure in China under the current GeoMIP model. According to the daily rainfall intensity classification standard of the Central Meteorological Observatory of China Meteorological Administration, 0.5°×0.5°spatial resolution daily precipitation data of the solar radiation management climate engineering G4 experiment and RCP 4.5 scenario based on the BNU-ESM model, the spatial differences of rainfall amounts and rainfall days contribution rate of different grades in China during the three different periods of implementation of climate engineering, namely, 2010-2099, 2020-2069 and 2070-2099, are compared and analyzed. The results show that: Firstly, in the climatic state, there is a good consistency between the climatic state of different grades rainfall in China in three periods under the two scenarios. Climate engineering has not changed the spatial characteristics of rainfall structure in China. Secondly, in the differences between climate engineering and non-climate engineering, different stages of implementation of climate engineering can indeed have an impact on rainfall structure in different regions of China, and the differences are different in different periods. Thirdly, in the difference before and after the implementation of climate engineering, the implementation of climate engineering promote moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall and total rainstorm events, but restrained light rainfall events. Under the current GeoMIP model, the implementation of climate engineering will have different impacts on rainfall structure in China.
引文
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[30] 孔锋,方建,吕丽莉,等.1961-2015年中国不同强度降雨的变化趋势和波动特征[J].热带地理,2017,37(4):473-483.KONG F,FANG J,LV L L,et al.Variation trend and fluctuation characteristics of different intensity rainfall in China from 1961 to 2015[J].Journal of Tropical Geography,2017,37(4):473-483.
[31] LI Z,NIU F,FAN J,et al.Long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation[J].Nature Geoscience,2011,4(12):888-894.
[2] IPCC AR5.Intergovernmental panel on climate change climate change fifth assessment report (AR5)[R].London:Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,UK,2013.
[3] DORE M.Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns:what do we know?[J].Environment International,2005,31(8):1167-1181.
[4] ABOLVERDI J,FERDOSIFAR G,KHALILI D,et al.Spatial and temporal changes of precipitation concentration in Fars province,southwestern Iran[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2016,128(2):181-196.
[5] 陈迎,辛源.1.5℃温控目标下地球工程问题剖析和应对政策建议[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(4):337-345.CHEN Y,XIN Y.Analysis of geoengineering problems and policy suggestions under the target of 1.5℃ temperature control[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2017,13(4):337-345.
[6] 辛源.地球工程情景下的中国气象灾害风险研究[D].北京:中国社会科学院研究生院,2017.XIN Y.Study on the risk of meteorological disasters in china under geoengineering scenario[D].Beijing:Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,2017.
[7] 孔锋.地球工程应对全球变暖最后的猛药[N].北京日报,2018-06-27(013).KONG F.Geoengineering,last big drug for global warming[N].Beijing Daily,2018-06-27(013).
[8] JI D,WANG L,FENG J,et al.Basic evaluation of Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) Version 1[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2014,7(5):2039-2064.
[9] 孔锋,孙劭,史纬恒,等.气候工程对中国极端降雨强度的影响(2010-2099)[J].灾害学,2018,33(2):106-113.KONG F,SUN S,SHI W H,et al.Study on the impact of Climate engineercly on extreme rainfau intensoty in China from 2010 to 2099[J].Journal of Catastrology,2018,33(2):106-113.
[10] 辛源.地球工程的研究进展简介与展望[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(4):30-36.XIN Y.Brief introduction and prospect of research progress in geoengineering[J].Advanced in Meteorological Science and Technology,2016,6(4):30-36.
[11] 辛源,潘家华.认知气候工程:气候主宰还是气候缓和?[J].中国软科学,2016(12):15-23.XIN Y,PAN J H.Cognitive climate engineering:climate dominance or climate mitigation?[J].Soft Science in China,2016(12):15-23.
[12] 张莹,陈迎,潘家华.气候工程的经济评估和治理核心问题探讨[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(05):442-449.ZHANG Y,CHEN Y,PAN J H.Discussion on the core issues of economic assessment and governance of climate engineering[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2016,12(05):442-449.
[13] 陈迎.地球工程的国际争论与治理问题[J].国外理论动态,2016(3):57-66.CHEN Y.International debate and governance of geoengineering[J].Theoretical Development Abroad,2016(3):57-66.
[14] XIA L,ROBOCK A,TILMES S,et al.Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could enhance the terrestrial photosynthesis rate[J].Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics,2016,16(3):1479-1489.
[15] PARKER A,GEDEN O.No fudging on geoengineering[J].2016.Nature Geoscience.2016,17(9):859-860.
[16] HEMPEL S,FRIELER K,WARSZAWSKI L,et al.A trend-preserving bias correction - the ISI-MIP approach[J].Earth System Dynamics,2013,4(2):219-236.
[17] MCCORMACK C G,BORN W,IRVINE P J,et al.Key impacts of climate engineering on biodiversity and ecosystems,with priorities for future research[J].Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences,2016,13(2):1-26.
[18] MCLAREN D,PARKHILL K A,CORNER A,et al.Public conceptions of justice in climate engineering:Evidence from secondary analysis of public deliberation[J].Global Environmental Change,2016,41(2):64-73.
[19] BELLAMY R.A Sociotechnical framework for governing climate engineering[J].Science Technology & Human Values,2016,41(2):135-162.
[20] 孔锋,王一飞,吕丽莉,等.全球气候变化多样性及应对措施[J].安徽农业科学,2018,46(6):142-148,189.KONG F,WANG Y F,LV L L,et al.Global climate change diversity and response measures[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2018,46(6):142-148,189.
[21] 孔锋,王品,吕丽莉.全球气候变化背景下雄安新区建设水资源安全风险与治理对策[J].水利发展研究,2018,18(2):12-14,39.KONG F,WANG P,LV L L.Risks of water resources security in Xiong’an New Area under the background of global climate change and countermeasures[J].Water Resources Development Research,2018,18(2):12-14,39.
[22] 孔锋,吕丽莉,王一飞.透视中国综合防灾减灾的主要进展及其挑战和战略对策[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(1):42-51.KONG F,LV L L,WANG Y F.Perspective on the major progress,challenges and strategic measures of comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation in China[J].Water Conservancy and Hydropower Technology,2018,49(1):42-51.
[23] 孔锋,刘凡,王一飞,等.中国气候变化与水灾发生频次的时空关系研究(1961-2010)[J].灾害学,2017,32(4):35-42.KONG F,LIU F,WANG Y F,et al.Spatial-temporal relationship between climate change and flood frequency in China (1961-2010)[J].Journal of Catastrology,2017,32(4):35-42.
[24] 柳琴,史军,李超.气候地球工程的政治影响[J].阅江学刊,2016,8(1):26-31,143-144.LIU Q,SHI J,LI C.Political impacts of climate geoengineering[J].Journal of Yuejiang,2016,8(1):26-31,143-144.
[25] 曹志杰,陈绍军,史明宇.气候变化条件下的气候工程移民问题及对策分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(S3):32-35.CAO Z J,CHEN S J,SHI M Y.Migration of climate engineering under climate change conditions and countermeasure analysis[J].Population,Resources and Environment in China,2014,24(S3):32-35.
[26] 郝晓雅.气候地球工程的道德反思[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2014.HAO X Y.Moral reflection on climate geoengineering[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,2014.
[27] 王金平.旨在减缓全球变化的海洋地球工程有可能加速气候变暖[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(03):316.WANG J P.Ocean geoengineering aimed at mitigating global change may accelerate climate warming[J].Advanced in Earth Science,2010,25(03):316.
[28] 银森录,李俊生,吴晓莆,等.地球工程开展现状及其对生物多样性的影响[J].生物多样性,2013,21(3):375-382.YIN S L,LI J S,WU X P,et al.Current status of geoengineering and its impact on biodiversity[J].Biodiversity,2013,21(3):375-382.
[29] 孙凯,王刚.气候变化背景下地球工程研究的国际管制探析[J].鄱阳湖学刊,2012(5):5-10.SUN K,WANG G.International regulation of geoengineering research in the context of climate change[J].Journal of Poyang Lake,2012(5):5-10.
[30] 孔锋,方建,吕丽莉,等.1961-2015年中国不同强度降雨的变化趋势和波动特征[J].热带地理,2017,37(4):473-483.KONG F,FANG J,LV L L,et al.Variation trend and fluctuation characteristics of different intensity rainfall in China from 1961 to 2015[J].Journal of Tropical Geography,2017,37(4):473-483.
[31] LI Z,NIU F,FAN J,et al.Long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation[J].Nature Geoscience,2011,4(12):888-894.