基于博弈视角的三阶段流域水量冲突协调分配研究
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摘要
针对流域水量冲突问题,基于博弈视角建立了三阶段流域水量协调分配博弈模型,并以常德市澧水流域为例进行案例分析,对流域水量冲突管理过程进行了研究。研究结果表明:阶段一是基于个体理性的顺序博弈,处于上游的地区具有取水优势,而下游用水主体则可能不能满足其基本的用水需求,易引发冲突;阶段二引入政府调控,其节水水平有了很大的提高,且能保障各地区的基本用水需求,但由于信息不对称,很难达到均衡状态;阶段三实现了政府与市场相结合,通过调整市场水权交易价格和水资源税率对流域水量冲突进行协调分配。
A three-stage coordinated allocation model based on the game theory is established to solve the problem of water conflicts in river basins. A case study of Lishui River basin in Changde City,China is carried out to study the process of water conflict management. The results show that the first stage is based on the sequent game of individual rationality,the upstream region has the advantage of water intake,while the downstream water users may not meet their basic water demand, easily leading to conflicts. At the second stage,by introducing the governmental regulation and control,the water-saving level is greatly improved,and the basic water demand of various regions can be ensured. However, because of the information asymmetry,it is difficult to achieve the equilibrium state. At the third stage,the government and the market are combined to coordinate the allocation of water resource conflicts in the river basin by adjusting the price of water right transaction and the tax rate of water resources.
A three-stage coordinated allocation model based on the game theory is established to solve the problem of water conflicts in river basins. A case study of Lishui River basin in Changde City,China is carried out to study the process of water conflict management. The results show that the first stage is based on the sequent game of individual rationality,the upstream region has the advantage of water intake,while the downstream water users may not meet their basic water demand, easily leading to conflicts. At the second stage,by introducing the governmental regulation and control,the water-saving level is greatly improved,and the basic water demand of various regions can be ensured. However, because of the information asymmetry,it is difficult to achieve the equilibrium state. At the third stage,the government and the market are combined to coordinate the allocation of water resource conflicts in the river basin by adjusting the price of water right transaction and the tax rate of water resources.
引文
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[11]FADER M,ROST S,MüLLER C,et al.Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize:present and potential future patterns[J].Journal of Hydrology,2018,384(3):218-231.
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[13]何忠奎,盖红波.水资源管理制度关键技术支撑探析[J].水资源开发与管理,2017(2):13-15.
[14]张瑞美,王亚杰,陈献.水资源管理立法现状与供给侧改革的新要求[J].水利经济,2018,36(1):27-31.
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[17]熊雪珍,何新玥,陈星,等.基于改进TOPSIS法的水资源配置方案评价[J].水资源保护,2016,32(2):14-20.
[18]马彪,钟平安,万新宇,等.水资源综合管理决策支持系统开发及应用[J].水资源保护,2015,31(5):96-101.