电动汽车购买意愿的离散选择分析
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摘要
探索了消费者对电动汽车购买选择行为的影响因素.研究采用意向调查方法,通过设置电动汽车的不同属性(价格、补贴政策、续航里程和充电方式)和水平来获取郑州市民购买电动汽车意愿的行为数据.应用离散选择模型,分析意向数据,建立电动汽车购买意愿的二元logit模型.研究发现:电动汽车的购买价格、政府补贴、续航里程和充电方式均是影响消费者购买的重要因素;男性消费者更容易接受电动汽车;年龄越大的消费者选择电动汽车的倾向越大;驾龄为0~4年的人群较之驾龄为4年以上的人群,选择电动汽车的概率较小;注重电动汽车性能的消费者选择电动汽车的态度更为保守.
The influential factors of the demand for electric vehicles were investigated to understand its impact on market shares.A stated preference survey was conducted to collect consumers' hypothetical choice data in Zhengzhou by setting different attributes(price,government subsidies,driving range and charging time)and levels.A binary logit model was developed to analyze the stated preference data.The results by the model show that price,government subsidies,driving range and charging time are all important attributes,and particularly individuals were willing to buy if actual price is lower,range is longer and charging time is less.It is found that male consumers prefer to buy electric vehicles.Meanwhile,older people and younger drivers are more inclined to choose.In addition,it is found that the consumers who focus on quality are less likely to choose electric cars.
The influential factors of the demand for electric vehicles were investigated to understand its impact on market shares.A stated preference survey was conducted to collect consumers' hypothetical choice data in Zhengzhou by setting different attributes(price,government subsidies,driving range and charging time)and levels.A binary logit model was developed to analyze the stated preference data.The results by the model show that price,government subsidies,driving range and charging time are all important attributes,and particularly individuals were willing to buy if actual price is lower,range is longer and charging time is less.It is found that male consumers prefer to buy electric vehicles.Meanwhile,older people and younger drivers are more inclined to choose.In addition,it is found that the consumers who focus on quality are less likely to choose electric cars.
引文
[1]Brownstone D,Bunch D S,Golob T F,et al.A transactions choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel vehicles[J].Research in Transportation Economics,1996,4:87-129.
[2]Brownstone D,Train K.Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,89(1/2):109-129.
[3]Brownstone D,Bunch D S,Train K.Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2000,34(5):315-338.
[4]Bunch D S,Bradley M,Golob T F,et al.Demand for clean-fuel vehicles in California:a discrete-choice stated preference pilot project[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,1993,27(3):237-253.
[5]Potoglou D,Kanaroglou P S.Household demand and willingness to pay for clean vehicles[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2007,12(4):264-274.
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[7]Glerum A,Stankovikj L,Thémans M,et al.Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles:accounting for attitudes and perceptions[J].Transportation Science,2013,48(4):483-499.
[8]Hidrue M K,Parsons G R,Kempton W,et al.Willingness to pay for electric vehicles and their attributes[J].Resource and Energy Economics,2011,33(3):686-705.
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[13]王涛,张友芹.论我国节能与新能源汽车的发展战略[J].汽车工业研究,2008(6):34-37.
[14]郭春林,甄子健,武力,等.电动汽车发展前景与关键因素分析[J].汽车工程,2012,34(9):852-858.
[15]马钧,冯庆.影响消费者购买纯电动车的因素研究[J].上海汽车,2010(2):54-58.
[16]关宏志.非集计模型——交通行为分析的工具[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[17]王方,陈金川,陈艳艳.交通SP调查的均匀设计方法[J].城市交通,2005,3(3):69-72.
[18]郑雪琳,干宏程.居民交通方式选择行为影响因素分析[J].上海理工大学学报,2013,35(6):563-566.
[2]Brownstone D,Train K.Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,89(1/2):109-129.
[3]Brownstone D,Bunch D S,Train K.Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2000,34(5):315-338.
[4]Bunch D S,Bradley M,Golob T F,et al.Demand for clean-fuel vehicles in California:a discrete-choice stated preference pilot project[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,1993,27(3):237-253.
[5]Potoglou D,Kanaroglou P S.Household demand and willingness to pay for clean vehicles[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2007,12(4):264-274.
[6]Beggs S,Cardell S,Hausman J.Assessing the potential demand for electric cars[J].Journal of Econometrics,1981,17(1):1-19.
[7]Glerum A,Stankovikj L,Thémans M,et al.Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles:accounting for attitudes and perceptions[J].Transportation Science,2013,48(4):483-499.
[8]Hidrue M K,Parsons G R,Kempton W,et al.Willingness to pay for electric vehicles and their attributes[J].Resource and Energy Economics,2011,33(3):686-705.
[9]弋亚群,向琴.我国新能源汽车产业分析[J].中国软科学,2009(S1):60-63.
[10]张经天,公静.促进新能源汽车产业发展的财税政策建议[J].中国财政,2010(13):49-50.
[11]孙庆洁.推动新能源汽车产业发展的税收政策研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2011.
[12]阮娴静.新能源汽车技术经济综合评价及其发展策略研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2010.
[13]王涛,张友芹.论我国节能与新能源汽车的发展战略[J].汽车工业研究,2008(6):34-37.
[14]郭春林,甄子健,武力,等.电动汽车发展前景与关键因素分析[J].汽车工程,2012,34(9):852-858.
[15]马钧,冯庆.影响消费者购买纯电动车的因素研究[J].上海汽车,2010(2):54-58.
[16]关宏志.非集计模型——交通行为分析的工具[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[17]王方,陈金川,陈艳艳.交通SP调查的均匀设计方法[J].城市交通,2005,3(3):69-72.
[18]郑雪琳,干宏程.居民交通方式选择行为影响因素分析[J].上海理工大学学报,2013,35(6):563-566.