新疆艾比湖流域潜在蒸散变化特征与成因分析
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摘要
【目的】寻找新疆艾比湖蒸散主要影响因子。【方法】根据新疆艾比湖流域内6个代表气象站1960―2015年逐日气象数据,采用辐射校正的Penman-Monteith模型计算了潜在蒸散量(ET0),采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall法、Morlet小波分析等方法分析了ET0周期变化规律,同时基于通径分析原理的指标敏感性方法分析了ET0的变化成因。【结果】1960―2015年艾比湖流域年ET0多年平均值为956.1 mm,气候倾向率为-29.89 mm/10 a,呈显著下降趋势(p<0.001);四季ET0表现为夏季>春季>秋季>冬季,各季随年份序列均呈下降趋势,其中夏季ET0下降趋势最为显著,夏、春二季ET0对全年潜在蒸散的相对贡献最大;年ET0在1986年发生下降突变,降幅为10.52%。ET0在28 a的周期振荡最强烈,为时序变化的第一主周期,第二、三主周期分别为15 a和8 a;风速对ET0的通径系数为0.736,对回归方程估测可靠程度E的总贡献为0.577。【结论】风速下降是艾比湖流域ET0下降的主要因子,其次为相对湿度、净辐射、降水和最高气温。
【Objective】Find the main factor of ET0.【Method】According to the daily meteorological data from 6 representative meteorological stations in the Xinjiang Ebinur Lake Basin from 1960 to 2015, the potential evapotranspiration(ET0)was calculated by radiation-corrected Penman-Monteith model. The climate tendency rate,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the periodic change rule of potential evapotranspiration. Meanwhile, the causes of ET0 change were analyzed by index sensitivity method based on path analysis principle.【Result】The annual average of ET0 in the Ebinur Lake basin from 1960 to 2015 was 956.1 mm with a significant decreasing trend of-29.89 mm/10 a(p<0.001);The ET0 of the four seasons decreased with the sequence of summer>spring>autumn>winter, and the ET0 each season presented a downward trend with year sequence. The decreasing trend of ET0 was the most significant in summer. The ET0 of summer and spring made the biggest relative contribution to annual values;There was a significant decrease abrupt point of ET0 in 1986 with a decline of 10.52%. ET0 had a strongest intense oscillation in the 28-year period, which was the first major cycle of sequential change, while the second and third main cycles were 15 years and 8 years respectively;The path coefficient of wind speed on ET0 was 0.736, the total contribution to estimate reliability of regression equation was0.577.【Conclusion】The decrease in wind speed is the main factor for the decline of ET0 in the Ebinur Lake Basin,followed by relative humidity, net radiation, precipitation and maximum temperature.
【Objective】Find the main factor of ET0.【Method】According to the daily meteorological data from 6 representative meteorological stations in the Xinjiang Ebinur Lake Basin from 1960 to 2015, the potential evapotranspiration(ET0)was calculated by radiation-corrected Penman-Monteith model. The climate tendency rate,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the periodic change rule of potential evapotranspiration. Meanwhile, the causes of ET0 change were analyzed by index sensitivity method based on path analysis principle.【Result】The annual average of ET0 in the Ebinur Lake basin from 1960 to 2015 was 956.1 mm with a significant decreasing trend of-29.89 mm/10 a(p<0.001);The ET0 of the four seasons decreased with the sequence of summer>spring>autumn>winter, and the ET0 each season presented a downward trend with year sequence. The decreasing trend of ET0 was the most significant in summer. The ET0 of summer and spring made the biggest relative contribution to annual values;There was a significant decrease abrupt point of ET0 in 1986 with a decline of 10.52%. ET0 had a strongest intense oscillation in the 28-year period, which was the first major cycle of sequential change, while the second and third main cycles were 15 years and 8 years respectively;The path coefficient of wind speed on ET0 was 0.736, the total contribution to estimate reliability of regression equation was0.577.【Conclusion】The decrease in wind speed is the main factor for the decline of ET0 in the Ebinur Lake Basin,followed by relative humidity, net radiation, precipitation and maximum temperature.
引文
[1]董煜,海米提·依米提.艾比湖流域径流水文特征及其对降水变化响应:以博尔塔拉河为例[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):94-99.
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[4]热孜宛古丽·麦麦提依明,杨建军,刘巍.艾比湖流域1957—2013年潜在蒸散、气温、降水变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(1):69-76.
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[9]宋小园,朱仲元,刘艳伟,等.通径分析在SPSS逐步线性回归中的实现[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(1):108-113.
[10]蔡甲冰,许迪,刘钰,等.冬小麦返青后腾发量时空尺度效应的通径分析[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(8):69-76.
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[12]范文波,吴普特,韩志全,等.玛纳斯河流域ET0影响因子分析及对Hargreaves法的修正[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(8):19-24.
[13]张青雯,崔宁博,冯禹,等.中国西南五省参考作物蒸散量时空变化分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):80-87.
[14]董煜,胡江玲,王瑾杰,等.新疆1961—2013年参考作物蒸散量时空变异[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(3):304-308.
[15]张山清,普宗朝.新疆参考作物蒸散量时空变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(5):73-79.
[16]石鑫,吴普特,王玉宝,等.近50年新疆参考作物蒸发蒸腾量的时空演变分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(1):10-14.
[17]曾丽红,宋开山,张柏,等.近60年来东北地区参考作物蒸散量时空变化[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):194-200.
[18]董煜,海米提·依米提.1961—2013年新疆潜在蒸散量变化特征及趋势[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(1):153-161.
[19]VAUTARD R,CATTIAUX J,YIOU P,et al.Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness[J].Nature Geoscience,2010,3(11):756-761.
[20]李媛,谢应忠,王亚娟.宁夏中部干旱带潜在蒸散量变化及影响因素[J].生态学报,2016,36(15):4 680-4 688.
[21]李艳红,姜黎,佟林.新疆艾比湖流域生态环境空间分异特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(11):59-62.
[2]许兴斌,王勇辉,姚俊强.艾比湖流域气候变化及对地表水资源的影响[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(3):121-126.
[3]陈志军,朱健,张晶.艾比湖流域气温变化基本特征分析[J].水资源研究,2009,3(2):38-41.
[4]热孜宛古丽·麦麦提依明,杨建军,刘巍.艾比湖流域1957—2013年潜在蒸散、气温、降水变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(1):69-76.
[5]谭娇,丁建丽,董煜,等.新疆艾比湖绿洲潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(5):143-148.
[6]ALLAN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al.Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements-FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No.56[M].Rome:FAO-Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,1998.
[7]王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[8]张红丽,张强,刘骞,等.中国南方和北方气候干燥程度的变化特征及差异性分析[J].高原气象,2016,35(5):1 339-1 351.
[9]宋小园,朱仲元,刘艳伟,等.通径分析在SPSS逐步线性回归中的实现[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(1):108-113.
[10]蔡甲冰,许迪,刘钰,等.冬小麦返青后腾发量时空尺度效应的通径分析[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(8):69-76.
[11]冯禹,崔宁博,魏新平,等.川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征与成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(14):78-86.
[12]范文波,吴普特,韩志全,等.玛纳斯河流域ET0影响因子分析及对Hargreaves法的修正[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(8):19-24.
[13]张青雯,崔宁博,冯禹,等.中国西南五省参考作物蒸散量时空变化分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):80-87.
[14]董煜,胡江玲,王瑾杰,等.新疆1961—2013年参考作物蒸散量时空变异[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(3):304-308.
[15]张山清,普宗朝.新疆参考作物蒸散量时空变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(5):73-79.
[16]石鑫,吴普特,王玉宝,等.近50年新疆参考作物蒸发蒸腾量的时空演变分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(1):10-14.
[17]曾丽红,宋开山,张柏,等.近60年来东北地区参考作物蒸散量时空变化[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):194-200.
[18]董煜,海米提·依米提.1961—2013年新疆潜在蒸散量变化特征及趋势[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(1):153-161.
[19]VAUTARD R,CATTIAUX J,YIOU P,et al.Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness[J].Nature Geoscience,2010,3(11):756-761.
[20]李媛,谢应忠,王亚娟.宁夏中部干旱带潜在蒸散量变化及影响因素[J].生态学报,2016,36(15):4 680-4 688.
[21]李艳红,姜黎,佟林.新疆艾比湖流域生态环境空间分异特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(11):59-62.