货币政策、行政管制与房地产价格变动——基于百城住宅数据的经验分析
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摘要
基于货币总量、工具结构和行政管制的视角,分析货币政策市场化方式和房价管制行政化方式对房地产市场的影响,运用2010年6月至2018年6月百城住宅数据进行城市分级检验。研究发现:货币政策调控房价存在理论和现实的必要,货币政策工具紧缩操作抑制房价上涨;数量型工具调控房价效果优于价格型工具,行政管制间断性导致货币政策和行政管制对房价影响产生方向"差异";货币政策和行政管制调控一、二、三线城市房价的效果逐级递减。
From the perspective of monetary aggregates,tool structure and administrative control,this paper analyses the impacts of marketization methods of monetary policy and the housing control administrative means on the real estate market. Housing price data of 100 cities from June 2010 to June 2018 are used for city grading test. The result? proves? that there is a theoretical and practical necessity for monetary policy to regulate housing prices,and tightening monetary policy instruments can curb housing prices. Quantitative tools are better than price tools in regulating housing prices. Intermittent administrative control leads to the direction difference between monetary policy and administrative regualtion. The effect of monetary policy and administrative control on regulating housing price in first-tier,second-tier and third-tier cities decreases gradually.
From the perspective of monetary aggregates,tool structure and administrative control,this paper analyses the impacts of marketization methods of monetary policy and the housing control administrative means on the real estate market. Housing price data of 100 cities from June 2010 to June 2018 are used for city grading test. The result? proves? that there is a theoretical and practical necessity for monetary policy to regulate housing prices,and tightening monetary policy instruments can curb housing prices. Quantitative tools are better than price tools in regulating housing prices. Intermittent administrative control leads to the direction difference between monetary policy and administrative regualtion. The effect of monetary policy and administrative control on regulating housing price in first-tier,second-tier and third-tier cities decreases gradually.
引文
[1]Mccarthy J,Peach R W.Monetary Policy Transmission to Residential Investment[J].Economic Policy Review,2002,8(May):139-158.
[2]Iacoviello M.House Prices,Borrowing Constraints,and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle[C].Boston College Department of Economics,2005,95(3):739-764.
[3]Lastrapes W D,Potts T B.Durable Goods and the Forward-Looking Theory of Consumption:Estimates Implied by the Dynamic Effects of Money[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control,2006,30(8):1409-1430.
[4]Demary M.The Link between Output,Inflation,Monetary Policy and Housing Price Dynamics[J].Mpra Paper,2009,(6):1-38.
[5]Mishkin F S.Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism[R].Nber Working Papers,2007,11(Supplement s1):359-413.
[6]Aalbers M B.The Financialization of Home and the Mortgage Market Crisis[J].Seventeenth-Century French Studies,2008,31(2):137-149.
[7]Tsai I C.The Asymmetric Impacts of Monetary Policy on Housing Prices:A Viewpoint of Housing Price Rigidity[J].Economic Modelling,2013,31(1):405-413.
[8]Mcdonald J F,Stokes H H.Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble[J].Journal of Real Estate Finance&Economics,2013,46(3):437-451.
[9]Williams,John C.Measuring Monetary Policy's Effect on House Prices[J].Frbsf Economic Letter,2015,28(8):1-6.
[10]邓富民,王刚.货币政策对房地产价格与投资影响的实证分析[J].管理世界,2012,(6):177-179.
[11]张红,李洋.房地产市场对货币政策传导效应的区域差异研究---基于GVAR模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2013,(2):114-128.
[12]郭娜,李政.我国货币政策工具对房地产市场调控的有效性研究---基于有向无环图的分析[J].财贸经济,2013,34(9):130-136.
[13]徐淑一,殷明明,陈平.央行货币政策工具调控房地产价格的可行性[J].国际金融研究,2015,339(2):35-44.
[14]陈诗一,王祥.融资成本、房地产价格波动与货币政策传导[J].金融研究,2016,(3):1-14.
[15]尹虹潘.不同房地产调控政策在城市层面的运行机制---基于城市房价空间分布曲线的理论分析[J].经济学家,2012,(12):67-73.
[16]陈继勇,袁威,肖卫国.流动性、资产价格波动的隐含信息和货币政策选择---基于中国股票市场与房地产市场的实证分析[J].经济研究,2013,(11):43-55.
[17]Carlino G,Defina R.The Differential Regional Effects of Monetary Policy[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1998,80(4):572-587.
[18]Negro M D,Otrok C.Monetary Policy and the Housing Boom Across US States[J].Journal of Monetary E-conomics,2007,54(7):1962-1985.
[19]Yang Z,Wang S,Campbell R.Monetary Policy and Regional Price boom in Sweden[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2010,32(6):865-879.
[20]常飞,李秀婷,郭琨,董纪昌.货币政策对区域房地产住宅市场的差异化影响---基于国内十城市房地产住宅市场的实证研究[J].管理评论,2013,25(10):3-9+156.
[21]余华义,黄燕芬.货币政策效果区域异质性、房价溢出效应与房价对通胀的跨区影响[J].金融研究,2015,(2):95-113.
[22]张清源,梁若冰,朱峰.货币政策加剧城市房价的冷热不均吗[J].统计研究,2018,35(5):75-87.
[23]Ihlanfeldt K R.The Effect of Land use Regulation on Housing and Land Prices[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2007,61(3):420-435.
[24]Dumm R E,Sirmans G S,Smersh G.Building Codes,Wind Contours,and House Prices[J].Journal of Real Estate Research,2012,34(1):73-98.
[25]Wang Z F,Gao H.Analysis of Housing Price Regulation in Game Theory[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Technology,2012,43(6):1209-1210.
[26]李稻葵.我这样看房地产限购[J].IT时代周刊,2011,(7):19-19.
[27]冯科,何理.中国房地产市场“限购政策”研究---基于反需求函数的理论与经验分析[J].经济学动态,2012,(2):53-60.
[28]朱国钟,颜色.住房市场调控新政能够实现“居者有其屋”吗?---一个动态一般均衡的理论分析[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(1):103-126.
[29]蔡明超,黄徐星,赵戴怡.房地产市场反周期宏观调控政策绩效的微观分析[J].经济研究,2011,(1):80-89.
[30]彭爽,刘丹.宏观调控、微观管制与房地产市场稳定[J].经济学家,2017,(6):58-66.
[31]约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆1999,304-314.
[32]顾海峰,张元姣.货币政策与房地产价格调控:理论与中国经验[J].经济研究,2014,(1):29-43.
[33]杨继生,冯焱.货币供给与PPI的动态响应机制和结构性差异[J].统计研究,2013,30(8):45-54.
(1)本文选取全国100个重点城市的房地产价格数据作为研究对象。根据中国房地产指数系统,对百城等级划分如下。一线城市:北京、上海、广州、深圳,共4个;二线城市:天津、重庆、杭州、南京、武汉、沈阳、成都、西安、大连、青岛、宁波、苏州、长沙、济南、厦门、长春、哈尔滨、太原、郑州、合肥、南昌、福州,共22个;三线城市:百城除一线城市、二线城市之外的其他74个城市。
(1)政策信息来源于国务院、中国人民银行、住房和城乡建设部、国家发展和改革委员会、银保监会。
(1)在中国人民银行的货币政策操作实践中,存在贷款基准利率与法定存款准备金率在相同年月进行调整的情况。由于本文旨在分析货币政策数量型工具与价格型工具调控分别对房地产价格的作用,因此,针对两类货币政策工具同时调整的情形不在本文的讨论范围内。事实上,在本文97组样本数据中,只有5组数据出现数量型工具与价格型工具同时调整的情况,可以忽略不计。
[2]Iacoviello M.House Prices,Borrowing Constraints,and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle[C].Boston College Department of Economics,2005,95(3):739-764.
[3]Lastrapes W D,Potts T B.Durable Goods and the Forward-Looking Theory of Consumption:Estimates Implied by the Dynamic Effects of Money[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control,2006,30(8):1409-1430.
[4]Demary M.The Link between Output,Inflation,Monetary Policy and Housing Price Dynamics[J].Mpra Paper,2009,(6):1-38.
[5]Mishkin F S.Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism[R].Nber Working Papers,2007,11(Supplement s1):359-413.
[6]Aalbers M B.The Financialization of Home and the Mortgage Market Crisis[J].Seventeenth-Century French Studies,2008,31(2):137-149.
[7]Tsai I C.The Asymmetric Impacts of Monetary Policy on Housing Prices:A Viewpoint of Housing Price Rigidity[J].Economic Modelling,2013,31(1):405-413.
[8]Mcdonald J F,Stokes H H.Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble[J].Journal of Real Estate Finance&Economics,2013,46(3):437-451.
[9]Williams,John C.Measuring Monetary Policy's Effect on House Prices[J].Frbsf Economic Letter,2015,28(8):1-6.
[10]邓富民,王刚.货币政策对房地产价格与投资影响的实证分析[J].管理世界,2012,(6):177-179.
[11]张红,李洋.房地产市场对货币政策传导效应的区域差异研究---基于GVAR模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2013,(2):114-128.
[12]郭娜,李政.我国货币政策工具对房地产市场调控的有效性研究---基于有向无环图的分析[J].财贸经济,2013,34(9):130-136.
[13]徐淑一,殷明明,陈平.央行货币政策工具调控房地产价格的可行性[J].国际金融研究,2015,339(2):35-44.
[14]陈诗一,王祥.融资成本、房地产价格波动与货币政策传导[J].金融研究,2016,(3):1-14.
[15]尹虹潘.不同房地产调控政策在城市层面的运行机制---基于城市房价空间分布曲线的理论分析[J].经济学家,2012,(12):67-73.
[16]陈继勇,袁威,肖卫国.流动性、资产价格波动的隐含信息和货币政策选择---基于中国股票市场与房地产市场的实证分析[J].经济研究,2013,(11):43-55.
[17]Carlino G,Defina R.The Differential Regional Effects of Monetary Policy[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1998,80(4):572-587.
[18]Negro M D,Otrok C.Monetary Policy and the Housing Boom Across US States[J].Journal of Monetary E-conomics,2007,54(7):1962-1985.
[19]Yang Z,Wang S,Campbell R.Monetary Policy and Regional Price boom in Sweden[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2010,32(6):865-879.
[20]常飞,李秀婷,郭琨,董纪昌.货币政策对区域房地产住宅市场的差异化影响---基于国内十城市房地产住宅市场的实证研究[J].管理评论,2013,25(10):3-9+156.
[21]余华义,黄燕芬.货币政策效果区域异质性、房价溢出效应与房价对通胀的跨区影响[J].金融研究,2015,(2):95-113.
[22]张清源,梁若冰,朱峰.货币政策加剧城市房价的冷热不均吗[J].统计研究,2018,35(5):75-87.
[23]Ihlanfeldt K R.The Effect of Land use Regulation on Housing and Land Prices[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2007,61(3):420-435.
[24]Dumm R E,Sirmans G S,Smersh G.Building Codes,Wind Contours,and House Prices[J].Journal of Real Estate Research,2012,34(1):73-98.
[25]Wang Z F,Gao H.Analysis of Housing Price Regulation in Game Theory[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Technology,2012,43(6):1209-1210.
[26]李稻葵.我这样看房地产限购[J].IT时代周刊,2011,(7):19-19.
[27]冯科,何理.中国房地产市场“限购政策”研究---基于反需求函数的理论与经验分析[J].经济学动态,2012,(2):53-60.
[28]朱国钟,颜色.住房市场调控新政能够实现“居者有其屋”吗?---一个动态一般均衡的理论分析[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(1):103-126.
[29]蔡明超,黄徐星,赵戴怡.房地产市场反周期宏观调控政策绩效的微观分析[J].经济研究,2011,(1):80-89.
[30]彭爽,刘丹.宏观调控、微观管制与房地产市场稳定[J].经济学家,2017,(6):58-66.
[31]约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆1999,304-314.
[32]顾海峰,张元姣.货币政策与房地产价格调控:理论与中国经验[J].经济研究,2014,(1):29-43.
[33]杨继生,冯焱.货币供给与PPI的动态响应机制和结构性差异[J].统计研究,2013,30(8):45-54.
(1)本文选取全国100个重点城市的房地产价格数据作为研究对象。根据中国房地产指数系统,对百城等级划分如下。一线城市:北京、上海、广州、深圳,共4个;二线城市:天津、重庆、杭州、南京、武汉、沈阳、成都、西安、大连、青岛、宁波、苏州、长沙、济南、厦门、长春、哈尔滨、太原、郑州、合肥、南昌、福州,共22个;三线城市:百城除一线城市、二线城市之外的其他74个城市。
(1)政策信息来源于国务院、中国人民银行、住房和城乡建设部、国家发展和改革委员会、银保监会。
(1)在中国人民银行的货币政策操作实践中,存在贷款基准利率与法定存款准备金率在相同年月进行调整的情况。由于本文旨在分析货币政策数量型工具与价格型工具调控分别对房地产价格的作用,因此,针对两类货币政策工具同时调整的情形不在本文的讨论范围内。事实上,在本文97组样本数据中,只有5组数据出现数量型工具与价格型工具同时调整的情况,可以忽略不计。