异常天气下飞行区运行风险评估
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摘要
近年来航空公司管理和空中交通管理水平不断提高,异常天气成了阻碍飞行区正常高效运行的首要原因。本文首先根据飞行区安全运行状态划分等级和分数段并建立经典物元,将每类异常天气作为一个待评物元,经过数据修正之后,通过物元分析模型对异常天气下飞行区安全运行等级进行评价,分析评价结果可得出不同运行环境下,不同异常天气发生时飞行区的安全等级。最后通过实例分析,验证了该评价方法的可行性。
With the vigorous development of the transportation industry,the flight area system has become more and more complicated. Complex flight areas have exposed the safety management faced with challenges. According to the standards of civil aviation industry,classical material elements were established after the classification of grades. Each abnormal weather was used as an object to be evaluated. After data correction,a matter element analysis model was used to define the safety operation level of the flight area under abnormal weather. Finally,through the case analysis,the feasibility of the assessment method was verified.
With the vigorous development of the transportation industry,the flight area system has become more and more complicated. Complex flight areas have exposed the safety management faced with challenges. According to the standards of civil aviation industry,classical material elements were established after the classification of grades. Each abnormal weather was used as an object to be evaluated. After data correction,a matter element analysis model was used to define the safety operation level of the flight area under abnormal weather. Finally,through the case analysis,the feasibility of the assessment method was verified.
引文
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3中国民用航空局.2012年民航行业发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2013-05-20)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201511/t20151102_8822.html?COLLCC=3360879167&Civil aviation administration of China.2012 Statistical bulletin of civil aviation industry development[EB/OL].(2013-05-20)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201511/t20151102_8822.html?COLLCC=3360879167&
4中国民用航空局.2013年民航行业发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2014-06-23)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201511/t20151102_8849.html?COLLCC=3360879167&Civil aviation administration of China.2013 Statistical bulletin of civil aviation industry development[EB/OL].(2014-06-23)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201511/t20151102_8849.html?COLLCC=3360879167&
5中国民用航空局.2014年民航行业发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2015-07-10)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201511/t20151102_8874.html?COLLCC=3360879167&Civil aviation administration of China.2014 Statistical bulletin of civil aviation industry development[EB/OL].(2015-07-10)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201511/t20151102_8874.html?COLLCC=3360879167&
6中国民用航空局.2015年民航行业发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2016-05-30)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201605/t20160530_37643.html Civil aviation administration of China.2015 Statistical bulletin of civil aviation industry development[EB/OL].(2016-05-30)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201605/t20160530_37643.html
7中国民用航空局.2016年民航行业发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2017-05-08)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201705/t20170508_44009.html Civil aviation administration of China.2016 Statistical bulletin of civil aviation industry development[EB/OL].(2017-05-08)[2018-10-24]http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/201705/t20170508_44009.html
8 Wong D K Y,Pitfield D E,Caves R E,et al.The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy:Part I.The development of an improved accident frequency model[J].Safety Science,2009,47(7):903-912
9 Soldatini C,Albores-Barajas Y V,Lovato T,et al.Wildlife strike risk assessment in several Italian airports:lessons from BRI and a new methodology implementation[J].Plo S one,2011,6(12):e28920
10 Breiing M,Cole M,d'Avanzo J,et al.Optimisation of critical infrastructure protection:the SiVe project on airport security[C]//International Workshop on Critical Information Infrastructures Security.Berlin:Springer Heidelberg,2009:73-84
11梅广明.浅析机场安全管理体系建设中的危险源识别工作[J].江苏航空,2011(1):46Mei Guangming.Identification of hazard sources in the construction of airport safety management system[J].Jiangsu Aviation,2011(1):46
12许红军,田俊改.支线机场安全动态预警技术研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,5(5):125-128Xu Hongjun,Tian Jungai.Research on dynamic early warning technology for regional airport safety[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2011,5(5):125-128
13赵贤利,罗帆.基于复杂网络理论的机场飞行区风险演化模型研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2013(4):31-34Zhao Xianli,Luo Fan.Research on the Risks Evolution Model Based on Complex Networks in Airport Flight Area[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition),2013(4):31-34
14高扬,吴建多.基于多级物元分析的机场安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(6):151-155Gao Yang,Wu Jianduo.Evaluation for civil operation and security based on multilevel matter element analysis[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2009,5(6):151-155