基于模糊认知图的航天商业发射服务竞价影响因素分析
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摘要
影响航天商业发射服务市场竞价的因素相互关联。根据航天商业市场竞价特点及影响因素的划分原则,将航天商业发射服务市场竞价影响因素分为宏观环境、成本、市场需求、竞争需求、品牌因素。运用模糊认知图对各影响因素进行推理分析,并借助灰关联计算各影响因素与竞价的关联度,判断影响竞价的重要因素,以作为航天企业决策依据。
The influencing factors of the bidding for aerospace commercial launching service market are interrelated. According to the characteristics of the bidding for aerospace commercial market and the division principle of influencing factors, we divide the factors into macro environment, cost, market demand, competitive demand and brand factors. Fuzzy cognitive map is used to analyze the influencing factors. The correlation between each influencing factor and the bidding is calculated by the grey correlation and then can be used to judge the importance of the factors. Aerospace enterprises can use it to make decisions.
The influencing factors of the bidding for aerospace commercial launching service market are interrelated. According to the characteristics of the bidding for aerospace commercial market and the division principle of influencing factors, we divide the factors into macro environment, cost, market demand, competitive demand and brand factors. Fuzzy cognitive map is used to analyze the influencing factors. The correlation between each influencing factor and the bidding is calculated by the grey correlation and then can be used to judge the importance of the factors. Aerospace enterprises can use it to make decisions.
引文
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[2] Lim W S. A lemons market? an incentive scheme to induce truth-telling in third party logistics providers[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2000, 125(3): 519-525.
[3] Dan A, Norrman A. Procurement of logistics services—a minutes work or a multi-year project?[J]. European Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management, 2010, 8(1): 3-14.
[4] Repullo R, Suarez J. Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements[J]. Journal of Financial intermediation, 2004, 13(4): 496-521.
[5] 叶晓甦,杨俊萍.基于多目标规划模型的PPP项目定价方式研究[J].统计与决策,2012,6:74-76.
[6] 陈贻龙,邵振一.运输经济学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[7] 王志新.我国管理咨询服务定价研究[D].吉林:东北师范大学,2008.
[8] Elpiniki et al. A concept reduction approach for fuzzy cognitive map models in decision making and management[J]. Neurocomputing, 2017, 232: 16-33.
[9] 崔军辉,等.基于FCM的UAV事故成因预测方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(12):3258-3264.
[10] 张桂芸,马希荣,杨炳儒.复杂系统模糊认知图的分解研究[J].计算机科学,2007,34(4):129-132.
[11] Mourhir A, et al. A cognitive map framework to support integrated environmental assessment[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016, 77: 81-94.
[12] Mendonca M, et al. A dynamic fuzzy cognitive map applied to chemical process supervision[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 2013, 26: 1199-1210.
[13] Salmeron J, Papageorgiou E. A fuzzy grey cognitive maps-based decision support system for radiotherapy treatment planning[J]. Knowledge-based Systems, 2012, 30: 151-160.
[14] Azadeh A, et al. A hybrid fuzzy regression-fuzzy cognitive map algorithm for forecasting and optimization of housing market fluctuations[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39: 298-315.
[15] Ruan D, Hardeman F, Mkrtchyan L. A novel approach for safety culture assessment[J]. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-based Systems, 2012, 20: 1-15.
[16] Axelord R. Structure of decision: the cognitive maps of political elites[M]. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1976.
[17] Kosko B. Fuzzy cognitive maps[J]. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, 1986, 24: 65-75.
[18] Elpiniki I, et al. Application of fuzzy cognitive maps for cotton yield management in precision farming[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2009, 36: 12399-12413.
[19] 邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[20] 刘丽华.固体火箭发动机价格估算及模型研究[D].西安:西北工业大学,2001.
[21] 刘泰江,于亮,刘靖,等.航天型号产品价格指数APPI测算标准化研究[J].中国管理信息化,2013,16(9):41- 43.
[22] Hempsell M, et al. A business analysis of a SKYLON-based european launch service operator[J]. Acta Astronautica, 2015, 121: 1-12.
[23] 袁家军.航天产品成熟度研究[J].航天器工程,2011,20(1):1-7.
[24] John M, Jurist M. Commercial suborbital sounding rocket market: a role for reusable launch vehicles[J]. Astropolitics, 2009, 7(7): 32- 49.
[25] 冯云皓.“渐进一次性运载火箭”项目和空间发射的未来[J].防务视点,2015,5:61- 62.
[26] 高远洋,钱勇刚,王文杰.我国航空军品定价体制下的博弈及效率分析[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2006,32(5):536-539.
[27] Chen R R, Poma R. Group buying of competing retailers[J]. Production & Operations Management, 2011, 20(2): 181-197.
[28] 周威.2007年商业通信卫星与发射服务市场综述[J].中国航天,2008,1:16-21.
[29] 姜刚,高星,董佳.武器装备研制概算价格影响因素分析[J].国防科技,2010,31(3):5- 8.
[30] 陈国宇,李畅.基于分承研制价格的航天器产品市场定价策略初探[J].国际太空,2016,4:58- 61.
[31] 王堃,郑卓,张欣,等.军贸产品定价策略研究[J].航天工业管理,2014,4:3- 8.
[32] Lin R J. Using fuzzy DEMATEL to evaluate the green supply chain management practices[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2013, 40: 32-39.