基于蒙特卡洛法和拉丁超立方采样的含风电场的概率可用输电能力研究对比
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摘要
随着可再生能源的不断发展,电力系统的随机性对电网稳定运行的影响越来越大,文章中提出了一种在间歇风源的电力系统可用输电能力的概率评估方法。利用蒙特卡洛抽样法和拉丁超立方采样法这两种采样方法对含风电场的电力系统不确定因素进行采样,并基于最优潮流的方法计算各种场景下系统的可用输电能力。通过对结果的画图以及列表,并对这两种方法所得到的结果进行分析,从而得出一种更加贴近系统实际运行结果的计算方法。
With the continuous development of renewable energy, the randomness of power system has an increasing impact on the stable operation of power grids. This paper proposes a probability assessment method for the available transmission capacity of power systems in intermittent wind sources. The Monte Carlo sampling method and the Latin hypercube sampling method are used to sample the uncertainties of the power system containing the wind farm, and the available power transmission capacity of the system in various scenarios is calculated based on the optimal power flow method. Through the drawing and list of the results, and the results obtained by the two methods are analyzed, a calculation method closer to the actual operation result of the system is obtained.
With the continuous development of renewable energy, the randomness of power system has an increasing impact on the stable operation of power grids. This paper proposes a probability assessment method for the available transmission capacity of power systems in intermittent wind sources. The Monte Carlo sampling method and the Latin hypercube sampling method are used to sample the uncertainties of the power system containing the wind farm, and the available power transmission capacity of the system in various scenarios is calculated based on the optimal power flow method. Through the drawing and list of the results, and the results obtained by the two methods are analyzed, a calculation method closer to the actual operation result of the system is obtained.
引文
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[18]罗刚,石东源,蔡德福,等.计及相关性的含风电场电力系统概率可用输电能力快速计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(7):1024-1032.LUO Gang,SHI Dong-yuan,CAI De-fu,et al.Probability of power system with wind farms based on correlation can be quickly calculated by transmission capacity[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(7):1024-1032.
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[20]邓威,李欣然,徐振华,等.考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算及影响分析[J].电网技术,2012,36(4):45-50.DENG Wei,LI Xin-ran,XU Zhen-hua,et al.Probabilistic power flow calculation and influence analysis considering wind speed correlation[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(4):45-50.
[21]蒋程,王硕,王宝庆,等.基于拉丁超立方采样的含风电电力系统的概率可靠性评估[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(10):193-206.JIANG Cheng,WANG Shuo,WANG Bao-qing,et al.Probabilistic reliability assessment of wind power systems based on Latin hypercube sampling[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(10):193-206.
[22]REIS C,BARBOSA F P M.A comparison of voltage stability indices[C]//Electrotechnical Conference,2006.MELECON2006.IEEE Mediterranean.IEEE,2006:1007-1010.
[2]刘韶平,张铭,朱滢.气象数据在风资源评估和风电场设计中的应用[J].新型工业化,2018,8(7):94-100.LIU Shao-ping,ZHANG Ming,ZHU Ying.Application of meteorological data in wind resource assessment and wind farm design[J].The Journal of New Industrialization,2018,8(7):94-100.
[3]王成山,李国庆,余贻鑫,等.电力系统区域间功率交换能力的研究(一)--连续型方法的基本理论及应用[J].电力系统自动化,1999,23(3):23-26.WANG Cheng-shan,LI Guo-qing,YU Yi-xin,et al.Research on power exchange capability between power systems(I)--Basic theory and application of continuous method[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,1999,23(3):23-26.
[4]王成山,李国庆,余贻鑫,等.电力系统区域间功率交换能力的研究(二)--最大交换功率的模型与算法[J].电力系统自动化,1999,23(4):5-9.WANG Cheng-shan,LI Guo-qing,YU Yi-xin,et al.Research on power exchange capability between power systems(II)--Model and algorithm of maximum exchange power[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,1999,23(4):5-9.
[4]刘焕志,李扬,陈霄.基于连续潮流的输电网可用输电能力计算[J].电力自动化设备,2003,23(12):5-9.LIU Huan-zhi,LI Yang,CHEN Xiao.Calculation of available transmission capacity based on continuous power flow[J].Power Automation Equipment,2003,23(12):5-9.
[5]丁晓鸾,王锡凡.最优潮流在电力市场环境下的最新发展[J].电力系统自动化,2002,26(13):1-7,19.DING Xiao-tong,WANG Xi-fan.The latest development of optimal power flow in the power market environment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2002,26(13):1-7,19.
[6]汪峰,白晓民.基于最优潮流方法的传输容量计算研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(11):35-40.WANG Feng,BAI Xiao-min.Research on transmission capacity calculation based on optimal power flow method[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2002,22(11):35-40.
[8]OU Y,SINGH C.Assessment of available transfer capability and margins[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2002,17(2):463-468.
[9]丁平,周孝信,严剑峰,等.考虑合理安全原则的大型互联电网在线传输极限计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(22):1-6.DING Ping,ZHOU Xiao-xin,YAN Jian-feng,et al.Calculation of online transmission limit of large-scale interconnected power grid considering reasonable safety principle[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2010,30(22):1-6.
[10]刘腊明,严正,愧以信,等.快速计算电网可用输电能力的交流灵敏度方法[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(19):11-15.LIu La-ming,YAN Zheng,KUI Yi-xin,et al.AC sensitivity method for quickly calculating the available transmission capacity of power grids[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2003,27(19):11-15.
[11]蔡晓波,吴政球,匡文凯,等.基于直流分布因子的可用输电能力灵敏度分析[J].电网技术,2006,30(18):45-48.CAI Xiao-bo,WU Zheng-qiu,QI Wen-kai,et al.Sensitivity analysis of available transmission capacity based on DC distribution factor[J].Power System Technology,2006,30(18):45-48.
[12]韩学山,李晓波.考虑元件长期载荷容许条件的最大可用输电能力的实用计算方法[J].电网技术,2004,28(24):10-15.HAN Xue-shan,LI Xiao-bo.Practical calculation method for the maximum available transmission capacity considering the long-term load tolerance of components[J].Power System Technology,2004,28(24):10-15.
[13]孙荣富,宋永华,张昌华,等.基于线路修正传输极限和交流分布因子的ATC快速计算[J].电力自动化设备,2007,27(8):1-5.SUN Rong-fu,SONG Yong-hua,ZHANG Chang-hua,et al.ATC fast calculation based on line correction transmission limit and AC distribution factor[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2007,27(8):1-5.
[14]NERC.Available transfer capability definition and determination:a reference document prepared by TTC task force[R].New Jersey:North American Electric Reliability Council,1996.
[15]黄伟,黄民翔,赵学顺.基于主从递阶决策模型的TRM评估[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(4):17-21.HUANG Wei,HUANg Min-xiang,ZHAO Xue-shun.TRMEvaluation Based on Master-Slave Hierarchical Decision Model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(4):17-21.
[16]崔雅莉,别朝红,王锡凡.输电系统可用传输能力的研究[J].电力自动化设备[J].2003,23(4):70-75.CUI Ya-li,BIE Chao-hong,WANG Xi-fan.Research on the transmission capacity available for transmission systems[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2003,23(4):70-75.
[17]孙荣富,程林,孙元章.基于区域发电可靠性的指数解析模型及其应用(二)容量效益裕度评估[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(23):5-9.SUN Rong-fu,CHENG Lin,SUN Yuan-zhang.Index Analytical Model Based on Regional Power Generation Reliability and Its Application(II)Capacity Benefit Margin Assessment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2007,31(23):5-9.
[18]罗刚,石东源,蔡德福,等.计及相关性的含风电场电力系统概率可用输电能力快速计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(7):1024-1032.LUO Gang,SHI Dong-yuan,CAI De-fu,et al.Probability of power system with wind farms based on correlation can be quickly calculated by transmission capacity[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(7):1024-1032.
[19]罗刚.电网可用输电能力的计算方法研究[D].华中科技大学,2014.LUO Gang.Research on calculation method of available transmission capacity of power grid[D].Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2014.
[20]邓威,李欣然,徐振华,等.考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算及影响分析[J].电网技术,2012,36(4):45-50.DENG Wei,LI Xin-ran,XU Zhen-hua,et al.Probabilistic power flow calculation and influence analysis considering wind speed correlation[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(4):45-50.
[21]蒋程,王硕,王宝庆,等.基于拉丁超立方采样的含风电电力系统的概率可靠性评估[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(10):193-206.JIANG Cheng,WANG Shuo,WANG Bao-qing,et al.Probabilistic reliability assessment of wind power systems based on Latin hypercube sampling[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(10):193-206.
[22]REIS C,BARBOSA F P M.A comparison of voltage stability indices[C]//Electrotechnical Conference,2006.MELECON2006.IEEE Mediterranean.IEEE,2006:1007-1010.