黑河流域上游径流变化及其归因分析
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摘要
基于莺落峡站径流资料,结合流域内气象因子及土地利用类型的变化情况,采用Budyko假设下的张橹经验公式,定性和定量分析了不同因素对黑河流域上游径流变化的影响。结果表明:(1)1960-2015年研究区径流量显著增加,在1997年和2004年存在变点,据此将研究期划分为基准期(1960-1997年)、突变期I(1998-2004年)、突变期II(2005-2015年);(2)降水、潜在蒸散发与永久性冰川雪地面积三者的变化与径流变化在一定程度上呈现一致性;降水和永久性冰川雪地融化对径流增加产生正效应,潜在蒸散发对径流增加产生负效应;(3)突变期I时段三者变化对径流变化的贡献率分别为149%、-83%和34%;突变期II时段三者的贡献率分别为138%、-35%和-3%。
Based on the hydrological and meteorological data and land types in the upper reaches of Heihe River basin,variations and attribution of runoff over the study area were investigated using several statistical methods and Zhang Lu's empirical formula under Budyko framework.The results showed that:(1)The runoff increased significantly from 1960 to 2015 and changed abruptly in 1997 and 2004.The study period was divided into three stages:the base period of 1960-1997,the abrupt change period I of 1998-2004,and the abrupt change period II of 2005-2015;(2)The changes of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and permanent glacial snow area were consistent with the changes of runoff to a certain extent.The increase of precipitation and the decrease of permanent glacial snow area had positive effects on runoff generation,while the increase of potential evapotranspiration had negative effects on runoff generation;(3)The contribution rates of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and other factors(mainly the permanent glacial snowmelt)to runoff changes during abrupt change period I were 149%,-83%and 34%,respectively;and decreased to 138%、-35% and-3%,respectively,during abrupt change period II.
Based on the hydrological and meteorological data and land types in the upper reaches of Heihe River basin,variations and attribution of runoff over the study area were investigated using several statistical methods and Zhang Lu's empirical formula under Budyko framework.The results showed that:(1)The runoff increased significantly from 1960 to 2015 and changed abruptly in 1997 and 2004.The study period was divided into three stages:the base period of 1960-1997,the abrupt change period I of 1998-2004,and the abrupt change period II of 2005-2015;(2)The changes of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and permanent glacial snow area were consistent with the changes of runoff to a certain extent.The increase of precipitation and the decrease of permanent glacial snow area had positive effects on runoff generation,while the increase of potential evapotranspiration had negative effects on runoff generation;(3)The contribution rates of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and other factors(mainly the permanent glacial snowmelt)to runoff changes during abrupt change period I were 149%,-83%and 34%,respectively;and decreased to 138%、-35% and-3%,respectively,during abrupt change period II.
引文
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[5]王欢,刘九夫,谢自银,等.青海湖流域径流变化趋势及归因分析[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(8):18-21,32.(WANG H,LIU J F,XIE Z Y,et al.Trend and attribution analysis of runoff in Qinghai Lake Basin[J].Water Resources and Power,2018,36(8):18-21,32.(in Chinese))
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[9]孙福宝.基于Budyko水热耦合平衡假设的流域蒸散发研究[D].北京:清华大学,2007.(SUN F B.Study on coupled water-energy balance in Yellow River Basin based on Budyko Hypothesis[D].Beijing:Tsinghua U-niversity,2007.(in Chinese))
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[12]刘艳丽,王国庆,金君良,等.基于Budyko假设的环境变化对流域径流影响的界定[J].水利水运工程学报,2014(6):1-8.(LIU Y L,WANG G Q,JIN J L,et al.An attribution method for catchment-scale runoff variation evaluation under environmental change based on Budyko hypothesis[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2014(6):1-8.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-640X.2014.06.001.
[13]王喆,李昱,丁伟,等.基于扩展Budyko假设的季节径流变化归因分析[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(8):22-33.(WANG Z,LI Y,DING W,et al.Attribution analysis on seasonal river runoff based on extended Budyko hypothesis[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2017,36(8):22-33.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20170803.
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[15]张连鹏,刘登峰,张鸿雪,等.气候变化和人类活动对北洛河径流的影响[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(7):55-66.(ZHANG L P,LIU D F,ZHANG H X,et al.Variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration during 1960-2011in Baiyangdian Basin[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(7):55-66.)(in Chinese)DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20160706.
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[18]贺燕子,岳大鹏,达兴,等.气候变化和人类活动对水资源影响的初探---以陕西省为例[J].江西农业学报,2016,28(12):87-93.(HE Y Z,YUE D P,DA X,et al.A preliminary study on impact of climatic change and human activity on water resources:taking Shaanxi Province as an example[J].Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi,2016,28(12):87-93.(in Chinese))DOI:10.19386/j.cnki.jxnyxb.2016.12.18.
[19]牟夏,刘强,平凡,等.1960-2007年无定河流域径流情势变化及其归因分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,53(4):465-471.(MOU X,LIU Q,PINGF,et al.Analysis of changes in annual streamflow and its influence factors in Wuding River Basin in the last 50years(1960-2007)[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2017,53(4):465-471.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2017.04.015.
[20]甄玉龙.黑河径流演变分析及探讨[J].甘肃科技,2017,33(10):49-50.(ZHEN Y L.Analysis and discussion of runoff evolution in Heihe[J].Gansu Science and Technology,2017,33(10):49-50.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0952.2017.10.018.
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