1951～2014年中国北方地区气温突变与变暖停滞的时空变异性
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摘要
基于1951~2014年中国北方及周边地区357个气象站点平均最低气温、平均气温和平均最高气温年(月)数据,采用M~K检验等方法,分析了中国北方地区3类气温突变和变暖停滞特征的时空变异性.结果表明:研究区3类气温整体突变年(1978~1999年、1981~2002年、1981~2005年)、分布广泛的普遍突变年(1988年、1989年、1997年)及范围(3a)均依次变晚.整体上,突变年随纬度降低变晚,东北突变早于西北和华北地区.变暖停滞集中于1998和2007年及其前后,3类气温亦依次变晚(1994~2007年、1995~2009年、1998~2010年),由黄河流域中段向其他方向越来越晚.突变至变暖停滞周期整体随纬度降低缩短(3~30a),突变越早周期越长.西北地区突变与变暖停滞前后各时段均值温差最大(2.4℃),温差在1℃左右站点分布最广泛.各时段升(降)温速率整体依次在0.01℃/10a、0.05℃/10a、-0.03℃/10a左右站点分布最广泛,突变后升温最快(0.02~0.16℃/10a),且西北地区对升温贡献最大,变暖停滞后东北地区对降温贡献最大,2时段按平均最低气温、平均最高气温、平均气温顺序升(降)温速率递减.3类气温波动程度减弱,整体随纬度降低.高纬度、高海拔和山地地区突变和变暖停滞较周边地区偏早或偏晚,特征值较大.整个北方地区3类气温突变、变暖停滞、突变与变暖停滞时间及各时段特征值各自具有自身一致性的普遍规律.
Based on the annual(monthly) data of average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature at 357 meteorological stations of northern China and the surrounding region from 1951 to 2014, the detection methods, such as Mann-Kendall, are adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of the three types of temperature mutation and the warming hiatus. The results indicated that the total mutation year of the three types of temperature(1978 to 1999, 1981 to 2002 and 1981 to 2005), the general mutation year widely distributed(1988, 1989 and 1997) and the range(3 a) were delayed one by one. Overall, mutation year gradually got late with the latitude. The mutation of northeastern China was earlier than that of northwestern and northern China. Warming hiatus was mainly in 1998 and 2007 and before or after the year of 1998(2007). Three types of temperature also became later in turn(1994 to 2007, 1995 to 2009 and 1998 to 2010) from the middle of the Yellow River basin to other directions. The cycle from mutation to warm hiatus was gradually shortened with the latitude(3~30 a). The earlier the mutation occurred, the longer of the cycle. The average temperature difference between the mutation and warming hiatus of northwestern China was the highest(2.4℃). Meteorological stations, where the temperature difference was 1℃,were the most widely distributed. The stations, at which the increase(decrease) temperature rate in each time period was generally 0.01℃/10 a, 0.05℃/10 a,-0.03℃/10 a, were the most widely distributed. After the mutation, the temperature increased fastest(0.02~0.16℃/10 a). The northwestern China contributed most to the heating. However, after the warming hiatus, the northeastern China contributed most to the cooling. In those two periods, heating(cooling) rate decreases in turn according to the order of average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average temperature. The change degree of the three types of temperature gradually decreases with the latitude as a whole. In the areas of high latitudes, high altitudes and mountains, the temperature mutation and the warming hiatus were earlier or later than surrounding areas, eigenvalues were larger. The time and eigenvalues of each period about three types of temperature mutation, warming hiatus as well as mutation and warming hiatus respectively had the universal law of consistency throughout the entire northern China.
Based on the annual(monthly) data of average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature at 357 meteorological stations of northern China and the surrounding region from 1951 to 2014, the detection methods, such as Mann-Kendall, are adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of the three types of temperature mutation and the warming hiatus. The results indicated that the total mutation year of the three types of temperature(1978 to 1999, 1981 to 2002 and 1981 to 2005), the general mutation year widely distributed(1988, 1989 and 1997) and the range(3 a) were delayed one by one. Overall, mutation year gradually got late with the latitude. The mutation of northeastern China was earlier than that of northwestern and northern China. Warming hiatus was mainly in 1998 and 2007 and before or after the year of 1998(2007). Three types of temperature also became later in turn(1994 to 2007, 1995 to 2009 and 1998 to 2010) from the middle of the Yellow River basin to other directions. The cycle from mutation to warm hiatus was gradually shortened with the latitude(3~30 a). The earlier the mutation occurred, the longer of the cycle. The average temperature difference between the mutation and warming hiatus of northwestern China was the highest(2.4℃). Meteorological stations, where the temperature difference was 1℃,were the most widely distributed. The stations, at which the increase(decrease) temperature rate in each time period was generally 0.01℃/10 a, 0.05℃/10 a,-0.03℃/10 a, were the most widely distributed. After the mutation, the temperature increased fastest(0.02~0.16℃/10 a). The northwestern China contributed most to the heating. However, after the warming hiatus, the northeastern China contributed most to the cooling. In those two periods, heating(cooling) rate decreases in turn according to the order of average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average temperature. The change degree of the three types of temperature gradually decreases with the latitude as a whole. In the areas of high latitudes, high altitudes and mountains, the temperature mutation and the warming hiatus were earlier or later than surrounding areas, eigenvalues were larger. The time and eigenvalues of each period about three types of temperature mutation, warming hiatus as well as mutation and warming hiatus respectively had the universal law of consistency throughout the entire northern China.
引文
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[27]常军,王永光,赵宇,等.近50年黄河流域降水量及雨日的气候变化特征[J].高原气象,2014,33(1):43-54.
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[35]Ma Y,Mao R,Feng S H,et al.Does the recent warming hiatus exist over Northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?[J].International Journal of Climatology,2017,37(7):3138-3144.
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[38]Qian W H,Zhang H N,Zhu Y F.Interannual and interdecadal variability of East Asian Acas and their impact on temperature of China in winter season for the last century[J].Advances in Atmospheric Science,2001,18(4):511-523.
[39]Yang X S,Vecchi G A,Delworth T L,et al.Extreme North America Winter Storm Season of 2013/14:Roles of Radiative Forcing and the Global Warming Hiatus[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2015,96(12):S25-S28.
[40]Ridley D A,Solomon S,Barnes J E,et al.Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2014,41(22):7763-7769.
[41]Kaufmann R K,Kauppi H,Mann M L,et al.Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998~2008[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2011,108(29):11790-11793.
[42]Antonello P,Umberto T,Alessandro A.Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2017,129(3/4):873-880.
[43]Kerr R A.Both of the world’s ice sheets may be shrinking faster and faster[J].Science,2009,326(5950):217.
[2]田庆春,杨太保,石培宏.末次间冰期—末次冰期可可西里地区气候演化形式[J].地理研究,2017,36(2):336-344.
[3]Gao J,Camille R,Valerie M D,et al.Southern Tibetan Plateau ice coreδ18O reflects abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation in the late 1970s[J].Climate Dynamics,2016,46(1-2):291-302.
[4]赵艳,刘耀亮,郭正堂,等.全新世气候渐变导致中亚地区植被突变[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(8):927-938.
[5]Hu Z Y,Li Q X,Chen X,et al.Climate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in an alpine grassland of Central Asia[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2016,126(3/4):519-531.
[6]Schroeder K,Chiggiato J,Bryden H L,et al.Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea[J].Scientific Reports,2016,6:23009.
[7]阿多,赵文吉,宫兆宁,等.1981—2013年华北平原气候时空变化及其对植被覆盖度的影响[J].生态学报,2017,37(2):576-592.
[8]吕少宁,李栋梁,文军,等.全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温周期变化与突变分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(6):1378-1385.
[9]Fu C B,Fletcher J.Large signals of climatic variation over the ocean in the asian monsoon region[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1988,5(4):389-404.
[10]Carter B.There is a problem with global warming...it stopped in1998.[EB/OL].https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personalview/3624242/There-IS-a-problem-with-global-warming...-it-s topped-in-1998.html.
[11]Morello L,Abbott A,Butler D,et al.2014.365days:2014in science[J].Nature,2014,516:300-303.
[12]Trenberth K E.Has there been a hiatus?[J].Science,2015,349(6249):691-692.
[13]Li C,Bjorn S,Jochem M.Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998~2012[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2015,42(19):8131-8139.
[14]Li Q X,Yang S,Xu W H,et al.China experiencing the recent warming hiatus[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2015,42(3):889-898.
[15]Li F L,Jo Y H,Yan X H,et al.Climate Signals in the Mid-to High-Latitude North Atlantic from Altimeter Observations[J].Journal of Climate,2016,29(13):4905-4925.
[16]Cohen J,Barlow M,Saito K.Decadal fluctuations in planetary wave forcing modulate global warming in late boreal winter[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(16):4418-4426.
[17]王绍武,罗勇,唐国利,等.近10年全球变暖停滞了吗?[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(2):95-99.
[18]黄星,马龙,刘廷玺,等.近60年黄河流域典型区域气温突变与变暖停滞研究[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(11):3253-3262.
[19]Easterling D R,Wehner M F.Is the climate warming or cooling[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:1160-1172.
[20]Karl T R,Arguez A,Huang B,et al.Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J].Science,2015,348(6242):1469-1472.
[21]郭志梅,缪启龙,李雄,等.中国北方地区近50年来气温变化特征的研究[J].地理科学,2005,28(2):176-182.
[22]向辽元,陈星.近55年中国大陆气温突变的区域特征和季节特征[J].气象,2006,32(6):44-47.
[23]Chen Y N,Deng H J,Li B F,et al.Abrupt change of temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of Northwest China[J].Quaternary International,2014,336:35-43.
[24]陈隆勋,朱义琴,王文,等.中国近45年气候变化的研究[J].气象学报,1998,56(3):257-271.
[25]丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):794-805.
[26]汤懋苍,白重瑗,冯松,等.本世纪青藏高原气候的三次突变及与天文因素的相关[J].高原气象,1998,17(3):250-257.
[27]常军,王永光,赵宇,等.近50年黄河流域降水量及雨日的气候变化特征[J].高原气象,2014,33(1):43-54.
[28]IPCC,2013:Summary for policymakers.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge University Press,2013:33-115.
[29]Ai W X,Lin X C.Climatic abrupt change in the Northern Hemisphere for 1920s and 1950s[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1995,9(2):190-198.
[30]Sun W Y,Mu X M,Song X Y,et al.Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau(China)during 1960~2013 under global warming[J].Atmospheric Research,2016,168(22):33-48.
[31]王玉洁,周波涛,任玉玉,等.全球气候变化对我国气候安全影响的思考[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(6):750-758.
[32]陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮,等.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报,2004,62(5):634-646.
[33]吴绍洪,黄季焜,刘艳华,等.气候变化对中国的影响利弊[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(1):7-13.
[34]Foster G,Rahmstorf S.Global temperature evolution 1979-2010[J].Environmental Research Letters,2011,6(4):44022-44029.
[35]Ma Y,Mao R,Feng S H,et al.Does the recent warming hiatus exist over Northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?[J].International Journal of Climatology,2017,37(7):3138-3144.
[36]Duan A,Xiao Z.Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?[J].Scientific Reports,2015,5:13711.
[37]Kosaka Y,Xie S P.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J].Nature,2013,501(7467):403-407.
[38]Qian W H,Zhang H N,Zhu Y F.Interannual and interdecadal variability of East Asian Acas and their impact on temperature of China in winter season for the last century[J].Advances in Atmospheric Science,2001,18(4):511-523.
[39]Yang X S,Vecchi G A,Delworth T L,et al.Extreme North America Winter Storm Season of 2013/14:Roles of Radiative Forcing and the Global Warming Hiatus[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2015,96(12):S25-S28.
[40]Ridley D A,Solomon S,Barnes J E,et al.Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2014,41(22):7763-7769.
[41]Kaufmann R K,Kauppi H,Mann M L,et al.Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998~2008[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2011,108(29):11790-11793.
[42]Antonello P,Umberto T,Alessandro A.Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2017,129(3/4):873-880.
[43]Kerr R A.Both of the world’s ice sheets may be shrinking faster and faster[J].Science,2009,326(5950):217.