人民币国际化进程中的货币替代效应研究——以香港地区离岸人民币为例
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摘要
人民币国际化进程中既有人民币"走出去"替代他国或地区货币的正向替代效应,也有被其他货币替代的逆向替代效应,且两种替代效应差异甚大。香港地区是人民币国际化进程中的"桥头堡"和"试验田",人民币在香港地区发生货币替代效应已呈常态化趋势。聚焦人民币在香港地区的货币替代效应,构建TVP-VAR模型,研究人民币在香港地区货币替代对人民币区域化国际化、两地经贸一体化、人民币币值稳定等的影响,分析不同替代效应可能引发的"特里芬难题""三元悖论"困境,并提出对应的政策选择建议。以期通过人民币在香港地区的货币替代研究总结人民币"走出去"的货币替代规律,防范各类风险,推进人民币国际化的同时保持经济和金融稳定运行。
In the process of RMB internationalization,not only does the positive substitution effect of RMB "going out"to replace the currency of other countriesor regions exist,but also a reverse substitution effect replaced by other currencies,and the two kinds of substitution effects are significantly different. Hong Kong is the bridgehead and experimental field in the RMB internationalization process,RMB in Hong Kong has a normal effect of currency substitution. This paper focuses on the monetary substitution effect of RMB in Hong Kong,builds TVP-VAR model,Analyzes how the different substitution effects of offshore RMB in Hong Kong influence the regional andinternationalization of RMB,the cross-strait economic integration,the exchangerate stability and so on. This paper analyzes different substitution effects may lead to "Triffin problems","ternary paradox"predicament and puts forward suggestions onpolicy choices under different substitution effects. These studies will help us to sum up the monetary substitution rule of the RMB "going out"around the world,toprevent all kinds of risks,promoting the internationalization of the RMB while maintaining economic and financial stability.
In the process of RMB internationalization,not only does the positive substitution effect of RMB "going out"to replace the currency of other countriesor regions exist,but also a reverse substitution effect replaced by other currencies,and the two kinds of substitution effects are significantly different. Hong Kong is the bridgehead and experimental field in the RMB internationalization process,RMB in Hong Kong has a normal effect of currency substitution. This paper focuses on the monetary substitution effect of RMB in Hong Kong,builds TVP-VAR model,Analyzes how the different substitution effects of offshore RMB in Hong Kong influence the regional andinternationalization of RMB,the cross-strait economic integration,the exchangerate stability and so on. This paper analyzes different substitution effects may lead to "Triffin problems","ternary paradox"predicament and puts forward suggestions onpolicy choices under different substitution effects. These studies will help us to sum up the monetary substitution rule of the RMB "going out"around the world,toprevent all kinds of risks,promoting the internationalization of the RMB while maintaining economic and financial stability.
引文
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[4]AIRAUDO M.Currency substitution,riskpremia and the Taylor principle[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control,2014(48):202–217.
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[10]刘再起,范强强.跨境贸易结算引发的货币反替代现象研究[J].国际经贸探索,2015(7):75-84.
[11]石建勋,金政.基于Morishima替代弹性的人民币货币替代经验研究[J].财经问题研究,2016(1):56-63.
[12]石建勋,叶亚飞.人民币替代港澳台货币的影响因素分析及对策研究[J].经济学家,2016(11):63-70.
[13]叶亚飞,石建勋.人民币市场汇率定价研究——基于DCC-GARCH模型的实证分析[J].上海经济研究,2016(6):36-42.
[14]NAKAJIMA J,KASUYA M,WATANABE T.Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive odel for the Japanese economy and monetary policy[J].Journal of Japanese and International Economies,2011(25):225-245.
[15]李稻葵.人民币“入篮”开启伟大航程解决世界货币难题需中国智慧[N/OL].新华社,2016-09-29.
[16]伯南克.中国应如何解决“三元悖论”?[N/OL].腾讯证券,2016-03-10.
(1)2010年8月16日在中国人民银行和香港地区金融管理局的共同推动下,香港地区CNH市场正式成立;CNH市场一成立就吸引了大量的交投活动,逐渐替代了NDF市场的功能;因香港地区财资公会2011年6月27日正式公布CNH市场每日汇率报价,故本文选取2011年6月前因香港地区NDF数据作为离岸汇率代表指标,2011年6月后选取CNH数据作为离岸汇率代表指标;并将日度数据加权平均后转化为月度数据。
(1)本篇幅原因,研究结果略,有需要的读者向作者联系索取。后同。
[2]DUTU R.Currency interdependence and dollarization[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2008(30):1673-1687.
[3]SHARMA S C,KANDI M,CHAISRISAWATSUK S.Currency substitution in Asian countries[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2005(16):489-532.
[4]AIRAUDO M.Currency substitution,riskpremia and the Taylor principle[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control,2014(48):202–217.
[5]SAMRETH S.Currency substitution and seigniorage-maximizing inflation:The case of Cambodia[J].Applied Economics,2010(42):1907-1916.
[6]OZBILGIN H M.Currency substitution,inflation,and welfare[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012(99):358-369.
[7]范从来,卞志村.论中国的反向货币替代[J].学术月刊,2008(9):64-70.
[8]何国华,袁仕栋.货币替代和反替代对我国货币政策独立性的影响[J].国际金融研究,2011(7):4-10.
[9]冯鑫明,卜亚.人民币国际化进程中的货币替代与反向货币替代研究[J].华东经济管理,2012(6):83-86.
[10]刘再起,范强强.跨境贸易结算引发的货币反替代现象研究[J].国际经贸探索,2015(7):75-84.
[11]石建勋,金政.基于Morishima替代弹性的人民币货币替代经验研究[J].财经问题研究,2016(1):56-63.
[12]石建勋,叶亚飞.人民币替代港澳台货币的影响因素分析及对策研究[J].经济学家,2016(11):63-70.
[13]叶亚飞,石建勋.人民币市场汇率定价研究——基于DCC-GARCH模型的实证分析[J].上海经济研究,2016(6):36-42.
[14]NAKAJIMA J,KASUYA M,WATANABE T.Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive odel for the Japanese economy and monetary policy[J].Journal of Japanese and International Economies,2011(25):225-245.
[15]李稻葵.人民币“入篮”开启伟大航程解决世界货币难题需中国智慧[N/OL].新华社,2016-09-29.
[16]伯南克.中国应如何解决“三元悖论”?[N/OL].腾讯证券,2016-03-10.
(1)2010年8月16日在中国人民银行和香港地区金融管理局的共同推动下,香港地区CNH市场正式成立;CNH市场一成立就吸引了大量的交投活动,逐渐替代了NDF市场的功能;因香港地区财资公会2011年6月27日正式公布CNH市场每日汇率报价,故本文选取2011年6月前因香港地区NDF数据作为离岸汇率代表指标,2011年6月后选取CNH数据作为离岸汇率代表指标;并将日度数据加权平均后转化为月度数据。
(1)本篇幅原因,研究结果略,有需要的读者向作者联系索取。后同。