不确定环境下网络舆情突发事件应急方案评估决策研究
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摘要
网络舆情突发事件由于短时间内信息收集不完备,具有明显的不确定性和社会危害性,各相关应急部门可能会按照自身利益偏好而提前制定多个应急备选方案来应对网络舆情危机.为及时高效地辅助决策者在不确定环境下从中选择实施最优方案,设计了基于直觉模糊集决策方法和Topsis法相结合的网络舆情突发事件应急方案评估决策模型,首先构建应急方案对各评估指标的直觉模糊集评估矩阵,接着利用改进的直觉模糊熵来确定各评估指标的客观权重,进而通过加权集结计算得到各应急备选方案的相对贴近度,并根据相对贴近度的大小对各应急备选方案进行优劣排序.最后通过一个具体算例验证了模型的有效性和可行性.
due to the network public opinion emergencies have no sufficient precursor information, have obvious uncertainty and the social harmfulness, the department of emergency management based on self-interest preference tends to multiple decision-making of emergency rescue plan to cope with, the crisis of network public opinion. For the timely and efficient assist decision-makers under the uncertain environment to choose from the implementation of the optimal program, constructed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets method and Topsis method of combining the Internet public opinion emergency decision-making scheme evaluation model,The model uses the improved intuitionistic fuzzy entropy to determine the objective weight of each evaluation index, and then obtains the relative close degree of the alternative contingency plan by weighted aggregation, and arranges the merits and demerits according to the relative proximity degree. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the decision model.
due to the network public opinion emergencies have no sufficient precursor information, have obvious uncertainty and the social harmfulness, the department of emergency management based on self-interest preference tends to multiple decision-making of emergency rescue plan to cope with, the crisis of network public opinion. For the timely and efficient assist decision-makers under the uncertain environment to choose from the implementation of the optimal program, constructed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets method and Topsis method of combining the Internet public opinion emergency decision-making scheme evaluation model,The model uses the improved intuitionistic fuzzy entropy to determine the objective weight of each evaluation index, and then obtains the relative close degree of the alternative contingency plan by weighted aggregation, and arranges the merits and demerits according to the relative proximity degree. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the decision model.
引文
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[21]徐泽水.直觉模糊信息集成理论及应用[M].科学出版社,2008.
[22] Atanassov K T, Rangasamy P. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Fuzzy Sets&Systems, 1986, 20(1):87-96.
[23] Xu Z, Cai X. Dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making[J]. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2008, 48(1):246-262.
[24]孙宁宁.直觉模糊集模糊熵及其在多属性决策中的应用研究[D].云南财经大学,2013.
[25] Xu Z S, Chen J. An overview of distance and similarity measures of intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J].International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 2008, 16(4):529-555.
[26] Ye J. Two effective measures of intuitionistic fuzzy entropy[J]. Computing, 2010, 87(1):55-62.
[27] Verma R, Sharma B D. Exponential entropy on intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Kybernetika(Prague),2013, 49(1):114-127.
[28]高明美,孙涛,朱建军.一种改进的直觉模糊熵公理化定义和构造公式[J].控制与决策,2014, 29(3):470-474.
[29]林晶,王健.基于改进直觉模糊熵的混合多属性决策方法研究[J].管理现代化,2014, 34(6):114-116.
[30] Wang Z J, Li K W, Wang W Z. An approach to multi-attributed decision-making with intervalvalued intuitionistic fuzzy assessmentsand incomplete weights[J]. Information Sciences,2009, 179(17):3026-3040.
[2]张一文,齐佳音,方滨兴等.非常规突发事件中网络舆情作用机制一基于系统动力学建模分析[J].情报杂志,2010, 29(10):1-6.
[3] Zhang Q, Xie B, Zhang X. Uncertain internet public opinion emergency decision system based on case reasoning and grey relational analysis[J]. Open Cybernetics&Systemics Journal, 2015, 8(1):274-282.
[4]邹凯,包明林,张晓瑜等.基于三角模糊软集的多属性灰色关联决策方法[J].中国管理科学,2015, 23(s1):23-27.
[5]左春荣,田涛,马英.基于Markov链的非常规突发事件应急决策模型[J].统计与决策,2012(19):57-60.
[6]吴凤平,程铁军.不确定环境下突发事件动态应急决策研究[J].软科学,2014, 28(3):26-29+34.
[7]王亮,王应明.基于前景理论的动态参考点应急决策方法研究[C]//中国管理科学学术年会.2013:9.
[8]徐选华,蔡晨光,杜志娇等.基于区间直觉模糊数的多属性多阶段冲突型大群体应急决策方法[J].运筹与管理,2016, 25(4):12-22.
[9]孙玲芳,周加波,林伟健等.基于BP神经网络和遗传算法的网络舆情危机预警研究[J].情报杂志,2014,33(11):18-24.
[10]兰月新.突发事件网络衍生舆情监测模型研究[J].现代图书情报技术,2013, 29(3):51-57.
[11]李浩,李佼瑞.网络舆情的安全预警方法研究[J].统计与决策,2014(17):4-7.
[12]邓尚民,董亚倩.基于AHP的高校网络舆情安全评估指标体系构建研究[J].情报杂志,2012, 31(8):31-36.
[13]孙瑞英,王旭.突发事件网络舆情传播的实证研究[J].现代情报,2016, 36(12):65-72+77.
[14]马颖,丁周敏,张园园.食品安全突发事件网络舆情演变的模仿传染行为研究[J].科研管理,2015, 36(6):168-176.
[15]方薇,何留进,孙凯等.采用元胞自动机的网络舆情传播模型研究[J].计算机应用,2010, 30(3):751-755.
[16]张倩生,谢柏林,张新猛.区间值模糊环境下的不确定网络舆情突发事件应急决策方案优选方法[J].计算机科学,2015, 42(S1):70-74.
[17]曹学艳,张仙,刘樑等.基于应对等级的突发事件网络舆情热度分析[J].中国管理科学,2014, 22(3):82-89.
[18] Sanayei A, Mousavi S F, Yazdankhah A.Group decision making process for supplier selection with VIKOR under fuzzy environment[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2010, 37(1):24-30.
[19] Bustince H, Burillo P. Entropy for intuitionistic fuzzy sets and on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1996, 78(3):305-316.
[20] Zhang Y J,Ma P J,Su X H, et al. Entropy on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets and its application in multi-attributed decision making[P]. Proceeding Information Fusion, of the 14th International Conference on-formationFusion, 2011:1-7.
[21]徐泽水.直觉模糊信息集成理论及应用[M].科学出版社,2008.
[22] Atanassov K T, Rangasamy P. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Fuzzy Sets&Systems, 1986, 20(1):87-96.
[23] Xu Z, Cai X. Dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making[J]. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2008, 48(1):246-262.
[24]孙宁宁.直觉模糊集模糊熵及其在多属性决策中的应用研究[D].云南财经大学,2013.
[25] Xu Z S, Chen J. An overview of distance and similarity measures of intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J].International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 2008, 16(4):529-555.
[26] Ye J. Two effective measures of intuitionistic fuzzy entropy[J]. Computing, 2010, 87(1):55-62.
[27] Verma R, Sharma B D. Exponential entropy on intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Kybernetika(Prague),2013, 49(1):114-127.
[28]高明美,孙涛,朱建军.一种改进的直觉模糊熵公理化定义和构造公式[J].控制与决策,2014, 29(3):470-474.
[29]林晶,王健.基于改进直觉模糊熵的混合多属性决策方法研究[J].管理现代化,2014, 34(6):114-116.
[30] Wang Z J, Li K W, Wang W Z. An approach to multi-attributed decision-making with intervalvalued intuitionistic fuzzy assessmentsand incomplete weights[J]. Information Sciences,2009, 179(17):3026-3040.