利用多元线性回归方法评估气象条件和控制措施对APEC期间北京空气质量的影响
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摘要
气象条件对大气污染物的扩散和传输有重要影响,准确分离和定量气象因素对空气质量的影响是评估大气污染控制政策有效性的前提.本研究利用APEC会议期间及前后(2014-10-15～2014-11-30)北京城区朝阳观测站点SO_2、NO、NO_2、NO_x、CO、PM_(2.5)、PM_1和PM_(10)以及气象因素的观测数据,采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量评估了气象条件和空气污染控制措施对APEC期间北京空气质量的影响.在假定排放条件不变的情况下,基于气象因素参数建立的预测污染物浓度的多元线性回归模型模拟效果较为理想,决定系数R~2在0. 494～0. 783之间.控制措施使得APEC控制期SO_2、NO、NO_2、NO_x、CO、PM_(2.5)、PM_1和PM_(10)浓度分别降低48. 3%、53. 5%、18. 7%、40. 6%、3. 6%、34. 8%、28. 8%和40. 6%,气象因素使得APEC控制期SO_2、NO、NO_2、NO_x、CO、PM_(2.5)、PM_1和PM_(10)浓度分别降低1. 7%、-2. 8%、18. 7%、4. 5%、18. 6%、27. 5%、30. 6%和35. 6%.气象因素和控制措施共同作用使得APEC控制期北京空气质量得到了明显改善.控制措施对SO_2和氮氧化物浓度的下降起主导作用,气象因素对CO浓度的下降起主导作用,气象因素和控制措施对颗粒物浓度降低的贡献相当.本研究还利用相对权重方法研究了气象因素对污染物浓度影响的贡献,结果表明影响不同污染物浓度的决定性气象因素不同.
Meteorological conditions have important impact on the diffusion and transport of air pollutants,thus separating and quantifying the impact of meteorological factors is a prerequisite for evaluation of air pollution control measures. Using observation data on SO_2,NO,NO_2,NO_x ,CO,PM_(2.5),PM_1,and PM_(10) as well as meteorological factors at the Chaoyang site,an urban site in Beijing,we evaluated the impact of meteorological conditions and control measures on air quality in Beijing during APEC 2014( from 15 October to 30 November,2014) by the multiple linear regression method. The simulation performance of a multivariate linear regression model based on the parameters of meteorological factors for predicting pollutant concentration assuming constant emission conditions were ideal,produced a range of determination coefficient( R~2) of 0. 494-0. 783. Our results suggested that air pollution control measures reduced the concentration of SO_2,NO,NO_2,NO_x ,CO,PM_(2.5),PM_1,and PM_(10) by 48. 3%,53. 5%,18. 7%,40. 6%,3. 6%,34. 8%,28. 8%,and 40. 6%,while meteorological conditions reduced the concentration of SO_2,NO,NO_2,NO_x ,CO,PM_(2.5),PM_1,and PM_(10) by 1. 7%,-2. 8%,18. 7%,4. 5%,18. 6%,27. 5%,30. 6%,and 35. 6%. The combination of meteorological factors and control measures has significantly improved the air quality in Beijing during the APEC period. Control measures played a leading role in the reduction of SO_2 and nitrogen oxides,and meteorological factors played a leading role in the reduction of CO. Meteorological factors and control measures made roughly equal contributions to the reduction of particulate matter. We also used the relative weight method to study the contribution of meteorological factors to the pollutant concentration. The results showed that the decisive meteorological factors on the concentrations of different pollutants were different.
Meteorological conditions have important impact on the diffusion and transport of air pollutants,thus separating and quantifying the impact of meteorological factors is a prerequisite for evaluation of air pollution control measures. Using observation data on SO_2,NO,NO_2,NO_x ,CO,PM_(2.5),PM_1,and PM_(10) as well as meteorological factors at the Chaoyang site,an urban site in Beijing,we evaluated the impact of meteorological conditions and control measures on air quality in Beijing during APEC 2014( from 15 October to 30 November,2014) by the multiple linear regression method. The simulation performance of a multivariate linear regression model based on the parameters of meteorological factors for predicting pollutant concentration assuming constant emission conditions were ideal,produced a range of determination coefficient( R~2) of 0. 494-0. 783. Our results suggested that air pollution control measures reduced the concentration of SO_2,NO,NO_2,NO_x ,CO,PM_(2.5),PM_1,and PM_(10) by 48. 3%,53. 5%,18. 7%,40. 6%,3. 6%,34. 8%,28. 8%,and 40. 6%,while meteorological conditions reduced the concentration of SO_2,NO,NO_2,NO_x ,CO,PM_(2.5),PM_1,and PM_(10) by 1. 7%,-2. 8%,18. 7%,4. 5%,18. 6%,27. 5%,30. 6%,and 35. 6%. The combination of meteorological factors and control measures has significantly improved the air quality in Beijing during the APEC period. Control measures played a leading role in the reduction of SO_2 and nitrogen oxides,and meteorological factors played a leading role in the reduction of CO. Meteorological factors and control measures made roughly equal contributions to the reduction of particulate matter. We also used the relative weight method to study the contribution of meteorological factors to the pollutant concentration. The results showed that the decisive meteorological factors on the concentrations of different pollutants were different.
引文
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[26]张裕芬,朱坦,冯银厂,等.大气污染控制有效性的评估模型及应用[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(3):225-230.Zhang Y F,Zhu T,Feng Y C,et al.Evaluation model for the effectiveness of air pollution control and its application[J].China Environmental Science,2009,29(3):225-230.
[27]Liu Y,He K B,Li S S,et al.A statistical model to evaluate the effectiveness of PM2.5emissions control during the Beijing 2008Olympic Games[J].Environment International,2012,44:100-105.
[28]Nguyen T T N,Bui H Q,Pham H V,et al.Particulate matter concentration mapping from MODIS satellite data:a Vietnamese case study[J].Environmental Research Letters,2015,10(9):095016.
[29]Liang P F,Zhu T,Fang Y H,et al.The role of meteorological conditions and pollution control strategies in reducing air pollution in Beijing during APEC 2014 and Victory Parade 2015[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2017,17(22):13921-13940.
[30]Díaz-Robles L A,Ortega J C,Fu J S,et al.A hybrid ARIMAand artificial neural networks model to forecast particulate matter in urban areas:The case of Temuco,Chile[J].Atmospheric Environment,2008,42(35):8331-8340.
[31]Kabacoff R I.R in action:data analysis and graphics with R[M].Shelter Island:Manning,2011.
[32]樊守彬,田灵娣,张东旭,等.APEC会议期间北京机动车排放控制效果评估[J].环境科学,2016,37(1):74-81.Fan S B,Tian L D,Zhang D X,et al.Evaluation on the effectiveness of vehicle exhaust emission control measures during the APEC conference in Beijing[J].Environmental Science,2016,37(1):74-81.
[33]李令军,王英,李金香,等.北京市冬春季大气颗粒物的粒径分布及消光作用[J].环境科学研究,2008,21(2):90-94.Li L J,Wang Y,Li J X,et al.The characteristic of atmospheric particle size distribution and their light extinction effect in Beijing during winter and spring time[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2008,21(2):90-94.
[2]Liu J,Mauzerall D L,Chen Q,et al.Air pollutant emissions from Chinese households:a major and underappreciated ambient pollution source[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2016,113(28):7756-7761.
[3]Zhu Y,Zhang J P,Wang J X,et al.Distribution and sources of air pollutants in the North China Plain based on on-road mobile measurements[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2016,16(19):12551-12565.
[4]Dai T,Schutgens N A J,Goto D,et al.Improvement of aerosol optical properties modeling over Eastern Asia with MODIS AODassimilation in a global non-hydrostatic icosahedral aerosol transport model[J].Environmental Pollution,2014,195:319-329.
[5]Huang Q,Wang T J,Chen P L,et al.Impacts of emission reduction and meteorological conditions on air quality improvement during the 2014 Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing,China[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2017,17(21):13457-13471.
[6]Li K,Li J L,Wang W G,et al.Evaluating the effectiveness of joint emission control policies on the reduction of ambient VOCs:implications from observation during the 2014 APEC summit in suburban Beijing[J].Atmospheric Environment,2017,164:117-127.
[7]Li X,Qiao Y B,Zhu J M,et al.The“APEC blue”endeavor:causal effects of air pollution regulation on air quality in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,168:1381-1388.
[8]Wang M,Zhu T,Zhang J P,et al.Using a mobile laboratory to characterize the distribution and transport of sulfur dioxide in and around Beijing[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2011,11(22):11631-11645.
[9]Wang G,Cheng S Y,Wei W,et al.Characteristics and emission-reduction measures evaluation of PM2.5during the two major events:APEC and Parade[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,595:81-92.
[10]Xu Z J,Shan W,Qi T,et al.Characteristics of individual particles in Beijing before,during and after the 2014 APECmeeting[J].Atmospheric Research,2018,203:254-260.
[11]Huang W,Fang D Q,Shang J,et al.Relative impact of shortterm emissions controls on gas and particle-phase oxidative potential during the 2015 China Victory Day Parade in Beijing,China[J].Atmospheric Environment,2018,183:49-56.
[12]Li Y R,Ye C X,Liu J,et al.Observation of regional air pollutant transport between the megacity Beijing and the North China Plain[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2016,16(22):14265-14283.
[13]Zhen Q,Deng Y,Wang Y Q,et al.Meteorological factors had more impact on airborne bacterial communities than air pollutants[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,601-602:703-712.
[14]程念亮,李云婷,张大伟,等.2014年APEC期间北京市空气质量改善分析[J].环境科学,2016,37(1):66-73.Cheng N L,Li Y T,Zhang D W,et al.Improvement of air quality during APEC in Beijing in 2014[J].Environmental Science,2016,37(1):66-73.
[15]李令军,王占山,张大伟,等.2013~2014年北京大气重污染特征研究[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(1):27-35.Li L J,Wang Z S,Zhang D W,et al.Analysis of heavy air pollution episodes in Beijing during 2013~2014[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(1):27-35.
[16]王媛林,王哲,陈学舜,等.珠三角秋季典型气象条件对空气污染过程的影响分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(9):3229-3239.Wang Y L,Wang Z,Chen X S,et al.Impact of typical meteorological conditions on air pollution over Pearl River Delta in autumn[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(9):3229-3239.
[17]Gao M,Liu Z R,Wang Y S,et al.Distinguishing the roles of meteorology,emission control measures,regional transport,and co-benefits of reduced aerosol feedbacks in“APEC Blue”[J].Atmospheric Environment,2017,167:476-486.
[18]Liu H L,He J,Guo J P,et al.The blue skies in Beijing during APEC 2014:a quantitative assessment of emission control efficiency and meteorological influence[J].Atmospheric Environment,2017,167:235-244.
[19]韩旸,吴宇峰,董海燕,等.APEC期间京津冀及周边城市PM2.5中化学组分特征[J].环境科学与技术,2017,40(8):134-138,158.Han Y,Wu Y F,Dong H Y,et al.Characteristics of PM2.5and its chemical composition during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding cities[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2017,40(8):134-138,158.
[20]聂滕,李璇,王占山,等.APEC期间北京市PM2.5时空分布与过程分析[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(2):349-355.Nie T,Li X,Wang Z S,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution and process analysis of PM2.5pollution over Beijing during APEC[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(2):349-355.
[21]王浩,李轶,高健,等.APEC会议期间石家庄市大气污染特征及空气质量保障措施效果评估[J].环境科学研究,2016,29(2):164-174.Wang H,Li Y,Gao J,et al.Characteristics of air pollution and evaluation of the effects of air quality assurance measures in Shijiazhuang city during the 2014 APEC meeting[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2016,29(2):164-174.
[22]杨懂艳,刘保献,张大伟,等.2014年APEC前后北京城区PM2.5中水溶性离子特征分析[J].环境科学,2015,36(12):4325-4330.Yang D Y,Liu B X,Zhang D W,et al.Characterization of water-soluble ions in PM2.5of Beijing During 2014 APEC[J].Environmental Science,2015,36(12):4325-4330.
[23]张东旭,樊守彬,林雅妮,等.APEC会议期间北京市交通扬尘控制效果研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(2):684-689.Zhang D X,Fan S B,Lin Y N,et al.Evaluation of the effectiveness of road fugitive dust control measures during the APEC conference in Beijing[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(2):684-689.
[24]王占山,李云婷,张大伟,等.2014年APEC会议期间北京市空气质量分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(2):675-683.Wang Z S,Li Y T,Zhang D W,et al.Analysis on air quality in Beijing during the 2014 APEC conference[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(2):675-683.
[25]张礁石,陆亦怀,桂华侨,等.APEC会议前后北京地区PM2.5污染特征及气象影响因素[J].环境科学研究,2016,29(5):646-653.Zhang J S,Lu Y H,Gui H Q,et al.Variations of PM2.5pollution and related meteorological factors before and after the2014 APEC conference in Beijing[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2016,29(5):646-653.
[26]张裕芬,朱坦,冯银厂,等.大气污染控制有效性的评估模型及应用[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(3):225-230.Zhang Y F,Zhu T,Feng Y C,et al.Evaluation model for the effectiveness of air pollution control and its application[J].China Environmental Science,2009,29(3):225-230.
[27]Liu Y,He K B,Li S S,et al.A statistical model to evaluate the effectiveness of PM2.5emissions control during the Beijing 2008Olympic Games[J].Environment International,2012,44:100-105.
[28]Nguyen T T N,Bui H Q,Pham H V,et al.Particulate matter concentration mapping from MODIS satellite data:a Vietnamese case study[J].Environmental Research Letters,2015,10(9):095016.
[29]Liang P F,Zhu T,Fang Y H,et al.The role of meteorological conditions and pollution control strategies in reducing air pollution in Beijing during APEC 2014 and Victory Parade 2015[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2017,17(22):13921-13940.
[30]Díaz-Robles L A,Ortega J C,Fu J S,et al.A hybrid ARIMAand artificial neural networks model to forecast particulate matter in urban areas:The case of Temuco,Chile[J].Atmospheric Environment,2008,42(35):8331-8340.
[31]Kabacoff R I.R in action:data analysis and graphics with R[M].Shelter Island:Manning,2011.
[32]樊守彬,田灵娣,张东旭,等.APEC会议期间北京机动车排放控制效果评估[J].环境科学,2016,37(1):74-81.Fan S B,Tian L D,Zhang D X,et al.Evaluation on the effectiveness of vehicle exhaust emission control measures during the APEC conference in Beijing[J].Environmental Science,2016,37(1):74-81.
[33]李令军,王英,李金香,等.北京市冬春季大气颗粒物的粒径分布及消光作用[J].环境科学研究,2008,21(2):90-94.Li L J,Wang Y,Li J X,et al.The characteristic of atmospheric particle size distribution and their light extinction effect in Beijing during winter and spring time[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2008,21(2):90-94.