外商直接投资对中国参与全球价值链分工的影响
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摘要
本文构建反映外资投入产出流量的新型世界投入产出表,估算了各贸易增加值构成的内外资占比,并从部门、双边和双边部门层面评估了外资对中国出口增加值规模和结构的贡献。研究结果表明,外资凭借与跨国公司全球价值链网络的天然联系,强化了中国融入全球价值链的深度和复杂度,也因高加工贸易倾向促使中国制造业在融入过程中向全球价值链下游移动。从时间趋势看,外资对贸易增加值规模的贡献趋于下滑,对贸易增加值结构的影响与中国经济发展新阶段脱节。因此,进一步积极利用外资既需要在先进制造业和现代服务业部门开拓新的引资增长点,也应重视打造承接高端价值环节转移的有利环境。
This paper constructs a new type of world input-output table that reflects the input-output flow from foreign investment, estimates the contribution of foreign enterprises to the added value of trade and assesses the scale and structure of the foreign capital value contribution to China's exporting section level, bilateral level and bilateral-section level. Research results reveal that foreign enterprises strengthen the depth and complexity of China's integration into the global value chain through their natural connections with the network of transnational corporations within the global value chain. It is also noted that the high processing trade tendency facilitates downward migration from China's manufacturing industries to the global value chain. From the perspective of temporary trends, the contribution of foreign firms to the trade scale of value-added tends to decline, something that is related to the FDI structure, which is clearly misaligned with the new stage of China's economic development. Thus, increased active use of foreign capital requires not only opening up new investment growth points in advanced manufacturing and modern services, but also focusing on creating a favourable environment for the transfer of high-end value chains.
This paper constructs a new type of world input-output table that reflects the input-output flow from foreign investment, estimates the contribution of foreign enterprises to the added value of trade and assesses the scale and structure of the foreign capital value contribution to China's exporting section level, bilateral level and bilateral-section level. Research results reveal that foreign enterprises strengthen the depth and complexity of China's integration into the global value chain through their natural connections with the network of transnational corporations within the global value chain. It is also noted that the high processing trade tendency facilitates downward migration from China's manufacturing industries to the global value chain. From the perspective of temporary trends, the contribution of foreign firms to the trade scale of value-added tends to decline, something that is related to the FDI structure, which is clearly misaligned with the new stage of China's economic development. Thus, increased active use of foreign capital requires not only opening up new investment growth points in advanced manufacturing and modern services, but also focusing on creating a favourable environment for the transfer of high-end value chains.
引文
李昕、徐滇庆(2013):《中国外贸依存度和失衡度的重新估算——全球生产链中的增加值贸易》,《中国社会科学》第1期。
刘遵义、陈锡康、杨翠红、Cheng,L.K.、Fung,K.C.、Sung,Y.W.、祝坤福、裴建锁、唐志鹏(2007):《非竞争型投入占用产出模型及其应用——中美贸易顺差透视》,《中国社会科学》第5期。
吕越、罗伟、刘斌(2015):《异质性企业与全球价值链嵌入:基于效率和融资的视角》,《世界经济》第8期。
施炳展、邵文波(2014):《中国企业出口产品质量测算及其决定因素——培育出口竞争新优势的微观视角》,《管理世界》第9期。
王明益、毕红毅、张洪(2015):《外商直接投资、技术进步与东道国出口产品结构》,《世界经济文汇》第4期。
王直、魏尚进、祝坤福(2015):《总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量》,《中国社会科学》第9期。
张杰、陈志远、刘元春(2013):《中国出口国内附加值的测算与变化机制》,《经济研究》第10期。
张杰、郑文平、翟福昕(2014):《中国出口产品质量得到提升了么?》,《经济研究》第10期。
祝树金、戢璇、傅晓岚(2010):《出口品技术水平的决定性因素:来自跨国面板数据的证据》,《世界经济》第4期。
Acemoglu,D.;Antràs,P.and Helpman,E.“Contracts and Technology Adoption.”The American Economic Review,2007,97,pp.916-943.
Ahmad,N.;Araújo,S.;Turco,A.L.and Maggioni,D.“Trade in Value Added:Developing New Measures of Cross-Border Trade,” in A.Mattoo;Z.Wang and S.J.Wei eds.,The World Bank,2013,pp.187-220.
Antràs,P.“Firms,Contracts,and Trade Structure.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118,pp.1375-1418.
Antràs,P.and Chor,D.“Organizing the Global Value Chain.” Econometrica,2013,81,pp.2127-2204.
Antràs,P.and Helpman,E.“Global Sourcing.”Journal of Political Economy,2004,112,pp.552-580.
Antràs,P.and Rossi-Hansberg,E.“Organizations and Trade.” Annual Review of Economics,2009,1,pp.43-64.
Arkolakis,C.;Ramondo,N.;Rodríguez-Clare,A.and Yeaple,S.“Innovation and Production in the Global Economy.” NBER Working Papers,No.18972,2013.
Basco,S.“Financial Development and the Product Cycle.”Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,2013,94,pp.295-313.
Carluccio,J.and Fally,T.“Global Sourcing under Imperfect Capital Markets.”Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94,pp.740-763.
Coase,R.H.“The Nature of the Firm.”Economica,1937,4,pp.386-405.
Chen,X.;Cheng,L.K.;Fung,K.C.;Lau,L.J.;Sung,Y.W.;Zhu,K.;Yang,C.;Pei,J.and Duan,Y.“Domestic Value Added and Employment Generated by Chinese Exports:A Quantitative Estimation.” China Economic Review,2012,23(4),pp.850-864.
Dean,J.M.;Fung,K.C.and Wang Z.“Measuring Vertical Specialization:The Case of China.” Review of International Economics,2011,19(4),pp.609-625.
Eaton,J.and Kortum,S.“Technology,Geography,and Trade.” Econometrica,2002,70,pp.1741-1779.
Feenstra,R.C.and Jensen,J.B.“Evaluating Estimates of Materials Offshoring from US Manufacturing.”Economics Letters,2012,117,pp.170-173.
Gereffi,G.;Humphrey,J.and Sturgeon,T.“The Governance of Global Value Chains.” Review of International Political Economy,2005,12,pp.78-104.
Grossman,G.M.and Helpman,E.“Integration versus Outsourcing in Industry Equilibrium.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2002,117,pp.85-120.
Grossman,G.M.and Helpman,E.“Outsourcing versus FDI in Industry Equilibrium.” Journal of the European Economic Association,2003,1,pp.317-327.
Grossman,G.M.;Helpman,E.and Szeidl,A.“Optimal Integration Strategies for the Multinational Firm.” Journal of International Economics,2006,70,pp.216-238.
Grossman,S.J.and Hart,O.D.“The Costs and Benefits of Ownership:A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration.”Journal of Political Economy,1986,94,pp.691-719.
Harding,T.and Javorcik,B.S.“Foreign Direct Investment and Export Upgrading.” The Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94(4),pp.964-980.
Hummels,D.;Ishii,J.and Yi,K.M.“The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade.” Journal of International Economics,2001,54,pp.75-96.
Johnson,R.C.and Noguera,G.“Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added.” Journal of International Economics,2012,86,pp.224-236.
Liang,Y.“Why Are China's Exports Special?The Role of FDI,Regional Trade,and Government Policies.” The Chinese Economy,Routledge,2008,41,pp.99-118.
Kee,H.L.and Tang,H.“Domestic Value Added in Exports:Theory and Firm Evidence from China.” The American Economic Review,2016,106,pp.1402-1436.
Koopman,R.;Wang,Z.and Wei,S.J.“Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports”NBER Working Papers,No.18579,2012a.
Koopman,R.;Wang,Z.and Wei,S.J.“Estimating Domestic Content in Exports when Processing Trade is Pervasive.”Journal of Development Economics,2012b,99,pp.178-189.
Koopman,R.;Wang,Z.and Wei,S.J.“Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports.” The American Economic Review,2014,104,pp.459-494.
Ma,H.;Wang,Z.and Zhu,K.“Domestic Content in China's Exports and Its Distribution by Firm Ownership.”Journal of Comparative Economics,2015,43,pp.3-18.
Pei,J.;Oosterhaven,J.and Dietzenbacher,E.“How Much Do Exports Contribute to China's Income Growth?”Economic Systems Research,2014,24(3),pp.275-297.
Ramondo,N.and Rodríguez-Clare,A.“Trade,Multinational Production,and the Gains from Openness.”Journal of Political Economy,2013,121,pp.273-322.
Tang,H.;Wang,F.and Wang,Z.“Extending the Input-Output Table Based on Firm-level Data.”CESifo working paper series,No.5811,2016.
Timmer,M.P.;Dietzenbacher,E.;Los,B.;Stehrer,R.and de Vries,G.J.“An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input-Output Database:The Case of Global Automotive Production.”Review of International Economics,2015,23,pp.575-605.
Tintelnot,F.“Global Production with Export Platforms.”NBER Working Papers,No.22236,2016.
UNCTAD.“World Investment Report 2013-Global Value Chains:Investment and Trade for Development.”UNCTAD/WIR/2013,New York and Geneva:United Nations,2013.
Upward,R.;Wang,Z.and Zheng,J.“Weighing China's Export Basket:The Domestic Content and Technology Intensity of Chinese Exports.” Journal of Comparative Economics,2013,41,pp.527-543.
Wang,Z.;Wei,S.J.and Zhu,K.“Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels.”NBER Working Papers,No.19677,2013.
Wang,Z.;Wei,S.J.;Yu,X.and Zhu,K.“Characterizing Global Value Chains:Production Length and Upstreamness.” NBER Working Papers,No.23261,2017a.
Wang,Z.;Wei,S.J.;Yu,X.and Zhu,K.“Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles.”NBER Working Papers,No.23222,2017b.
Williamson,O.E.The Economic Institutions of Capitalism.New York:Free Press,1985.
Xu,B.and Lu,J.“Foreign Direct Investment,Processing Trade,and the Sophistication of China's Exports.”China Economic Review,2009,20,pp.425-439.
Yang,C.;Dietzenbacher,E.;Pei,J.;Chen,X.;Zhu,K.and Tang,Z.“Processing Trade Biases the Measurement of Vertical Specialization in China.”Economic Systems Research,2015,27,pp.60-76.
Yeaple,S.R.“The Complex Integration Strategies of Multinationals and Cross Country Dependencies in the Structure of Foreign Direct Investment.”Journal of International Economics,2003,60,pp.293-314.
(1)如无特殊说明,本文的外资参与指外资企业作为投入产出流量的采购方或供货方,内资参与指内资企业作为投入产出流量的采购方或供货方。
(2)在后文分析中,外资均指中国(S国)外资企业。
(3)上标q代表R或T国。
(4)有关上述出口分解公式的严谨论证和详细过程参见王直等(2015)与Wang等 (2013)的研究。
(5)我们使用小写字母f表示外资参与的投入产出流量占比,比如Z=Z/Z、Y=Y/Y及Xsfj=X/X。对于S国国内企业之间的中间投入和最终使用,我们使用双小写字母表示,如Z=Z/Z表示S国j部门外资产出被l部门外资用于中间投入的部分占l部门从j部门采购中间投入的比重;Y=Y/Y表示j部门内资产出被外资用于最终使用的部分占j部门产出在国内被用于最终使用品的比重,其他依此类推。
(6)比如无法获取能够准确反映外资企业在国内服务业的经营情况的数据;双边服务贸易数据的质量不高,无法识别双边服务贸易中的外资参与情况;即便是海关统计的中国企业贸易明细数据,也难以区分外资企业进口用途或出口流向。
(7)WITS是世界银行、世界贸易组织、联合国统计局和贸易与发展会议等国际机构共同开发的,用于分析关税变化对贸易流动、市场准入和经济效益等影响的综合模型,提供了各种产品编码的对应表,详细请参阅http://wits.worldbank.org/product_concordance.html。
(8)对于GB/T 4754-2002到ISIC 3.0的转换表而言,913个行业小类,902个对应1个2位ISIC行业,11个对应2个2位ISIC行业,2个对应3个2位ISIC行业。对于HS 2002、2007和ISIC 3.0的转换表而言,每个6位HS产品均只对应1个2位ISIC行业。
(9)限于篇幅,未报告具体估算过程,如感兴趣可向作者索取。
(10)该数值与 Ma等(2015)基于2007年工业部门数据测算的结果(56.91%)接近。
(11)本文我们以3位字符标注部门。第1位均为“W”,指示部门分类编码来自WIOD 2013年版部门分类和编码;后2位标注部门编码,在编码为个位数时在十位加0补齐。2013年版WIOD的部门分类和编码见Timmer等(2015)的研究。
(12)具体数值根据图形数据计算得到,限于篇幅,未报告图形对应表格,备索。
刘遵义、陈锡康、杨翠红、Cheng,L.K.、Fung,K.C.、Sung,Y.W.、祝坤福、裴建锁、唐志鹏(2007):《非竞争型投入占用产出模型及其应用——中美贸易顺差透视》,《中国社会科学》第5期。
吕越、罗伟、刘斌(2015):《异质性企业与全球价值链嵌入:基于效率和融资的视角》,《世界经济》第8期。
施炳展、邵文波(2014):《中国企业出口产品质量测算及其决定因素——培育出口竞争新优势的微观视角》,《管理世界》第9期。
王明益、毕红毅、张洪(2015):《外商直接投资、技术进步与东道国出口产品结构》,《世界经济文汇》第4期。
王直、魏尚进、祝坤福(2015):《总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量》,《中国社会科学》第9期。
张杰、陈志远、刘元春(2013):《中国出口国内附加值的测算与变化机制》,《经济研究》第10期。
张杰、郑文平、翟福昕(2014):《中国出口产品质量得到提升了么?》,《经济研究》第10期。
祝树金、戢璇、傅晓岚(2010):《出口品技术水平的决定性因素:来自跨国面板数据的证据》,《世界经济》第4期。
Acemoglu,D.;Antràs,P.and Helpman,E.“Contracts and Technology Adoption.”The American Economic Review,2007,97,pp.916-943.
Ahmad,N.;Araújo,S.;Turco,A.L.and Maggioni,D.“Trade in Value Added:Developing New Measures of Cross-Border Trade,” in A.Mattoo;Z.Wang and S.J.Wei eds.,The World Bank,2013,pp.187-220.
Antràs,P.“Firms,Contracts,and Trade Structure.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118,pp.1375-1418.
Antràs,P.and Chor,D.“Organizing the Global Value Chain.” Econometrica,2013,81,pp.2127-2204.
Antràs,P.and Helpman,E.“Global Sourcing.”Journal of Political Economy,2004,112,pp.552-580.
Antràs,P.and Rossi-Hansberg,E.“Organizations and Trade.” Annual Review of Economics,2009,1,pp.43-64.
Arkolakis,C.;Ramondo,N.;Rodríguez-Clare,A.and Yeaple,S.“Innovation and Production in the Global Economy.” NBER Working Papers,No.18972,2013.
Basco,S.“Financial Development and the Product Cycle.”Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,2013,94,pp.295-313.
Carluccio,J.and Fally,T.“Global Sourcing under Imperfect Capital Markets.”Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94,pp.740-763.
Coase,R.H.“The Nature of the Firm.”Economica,1937,4,pp.386-405.
Chen,X.;Cheng,L.K.;Fung,K.C.;Lau,L.J.;Sung,Y.W.;Zhu,K.;Yang,C.;Pei,J.and Duan,Y.“Domestic Value Added and Employment Generated by Chinese Exports:A Quantitative Estimation.” China Economic Review,2012,23(4),pp.850-864.
Dean,J.M.;Fung,K.C.and Wang Z.“Measuring Vertical Specialization:The Case of China.” Review of International Economics,2011,19(4),pp.609-625.
Eaton,J.and Kortum,S.“Technology,Geography,and Trade.” Econometrica,2002,70,pp.1741-1779.
Feenstra,R.C.and Jensen,J.B.“Evaluating Estimates of Materials Offshoring from US Manufacturing.”Economics Letters,2012,117,pp.170-173.
Gereffi,G.;Humphrey,J.and Sturgeon,T.“The Governance of Global Value Chains.” Review of International Political Economy,2005,12,pp.78-104.
Grossman,G.M.and Helpman,E.“Integration versus Outsourcing in Industry Equilibrium.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2002,117,pp.85-120.
Grossman,G.M.and Helpman,E.“Outsourcing versus FDI in Industry Equilibrium.” Journal of the European Economic Association,2003,1,pp.317-327.
Grossman,G.M.;Helpman,E.and Szeidl,A.“Optimal Integration Strategies for the Multinational Firm.” Journal of International Economics,2006,70,pp.216-238.
Grossman,S.J.and Hart,O.D.“The Costs and Benefits of Ownership:A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration.”Journal of Political Economy,1986,94,pp.691-719.
Harding,T.and Javorcik,B.S.“Foreign Direct Investment and Export Upgrading.” The Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94(4),pp.964-980.
Hummels,D.;Ishii,J.and Yi,K.M.“The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade.” Journal of International Economics,2001,54,pp.75-96.
Johnson,R.C.and Noguera,G.“Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added.” Journal of International Economics,2012,86,pp.224-236.
Liang,Y.“Why Are China's Exports Special?The Role of FDI,Regional Trade,and Government Policies.” The Chinese Economy,Routledge,2008,41,pp.99-118.
Kee,H.L.and Tang,H.“Domestic Value Added in Exports:Theory and Firm Evidence from China.” The American Economic Review,2016,106,pp.1402-1436.
Koopman,R.;Wang,Z.and Wei,S.J.“Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports”NBER Working Papers,No.18579,2012a.
Koopman,R.;Wang,Z.and Wei,S.J.“Estimating Domestic Content in Exports when Processing Trade is Pervasive.”Journal of Development Economics,2012b,99,pp.178-189.
Koopman,R.;Wang,Z.and Wei,S.J.“Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports.” The American Economic Review,2014,104,pp.459-494.
Ma,H.;Wang,Z.and Zhu,K.“Domestic Content in China's Exports and Its Distribution by Firm Ownership.”Journal of Comparative Economics,2015,43,pp.3-18.
Pei,J.;Oosterhaven,J.and Dietzenbacher,E.“How Much Do Exports Contribute to China's Income Growth?”Economic Systems Research,2014,24(3),pp.275-297.
Ramondo,N.and Rodríguez-Clare,A.“Trade,Multinational Production,and the Gains from Openness.”Journal of Political Economy,2013,121,pp.273-322.
Tang,H.;Wang,F.and Wang,Z.“Extending the Input-Output Table Based on Firm-level Data.”CESifo working paper series,No.5811,2016.
Timmer,M.P.;Dietzenbacher,E.;Los,B.;Stehrer,R.and de Vries,G.J.“An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input-Output Database:The Case of Global Automotive Production.”Review of International Economics,2015,23,pp.575-605.
Tintelnot,F.“Global Production with Export Platforms.”NBER Working Papers,No.22236,2016.
UNCTAD.“World Investment Report 2013-Global Value Chains:Investment and Trade for Development.”UNCTAD/WIR/2013,New York and Geneva:United Nations,2013.
Upward,R.;Wang,Z.and Zheng,J.“Weighing China's Export Basket:The Domestic Content and Technology Intensity of Chinese Exports.” Journal of Comparative Economics,2013,41,pp.527-543.
Wang,Z.;Wei,S.J.and Zhu,K.“Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels.”NBER Working Papers,No.19677,2013.
Wang,Z.;Wei,S.J.;Yu,X.and Zhu,K.“Characterizing Global Value Chains:Production Length and Upstreamness.” NBER Working Papers,No.23261,2017a.
Wang,Z.;Wei,S.J.;Yu,X.and Zhu,K.“Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles.”NBER Working Papers,No.23222,2017b.
Williamson,O.E.The Economic Institutions of Capitalism.New York:Free Press,1985.
Xu,B.and Lu,J.“Foreign Direct Investment,Processing Trade,and the Sophistication of China's Exports.”China Economic Review,2009,20,pp.425-439.
Yang,C.;Dietzenbacher,E.;Pei,J.;Chen,X.;Zhu,K.and Tang,Z.“Processing Trade Biases the Measurement of Vertical Specialization in China.”Economic Systems Research,2015,27,pp.60-76.
Yeaple,S.R.“The Complex Integration Strategies of Multinationals and Cross Country Dependencies in the Structure of Foreign Direct Investment.”Journal of International Economics,2003,60,pp.293-314.
(1)如无特殊说明,本文的外资参与指外资企业作为投入产出流量的采购方或供货方,内资参与指内资企业作为投入产出流量的采购方或供货方。
(2)在后文分析中,外资均指中国(S国)外资企业。
(3)上标q代表R或T国。
(4)有关上述出口分解公式的严谨论证和详细过程参见王直等(2015)与Wang等 (2013)的研究。
(5)我们使用小写字母f表示外资参与的投入产出流量占比,比如Z=Z/Z、Y=Y/Y及Xsfj=X/X。对于S国国内企业之间的中间投入和最终使用,我们使用双小写字母表示,如Z=Z/Z表示S国j部门外资产出被l部门外资用于中间投入的部分占l部门从j部门采购中间投入的比重;Y=Y/Y表示j部门内资产出被外资用于最终使用的部分占j部门产出在国内被用于最终使用品的比重,其他依此类推。
(6)比如无法获取能够准确反映外资企业在国内服务业的经营情况的数据;双边服务贸易数据的质量不高,无法识别双边服务贸易中的外资参与情况;即便是海关统计的中国企业贸易明细数据,也难以区分外资企业进口用途或出口流向。
(7)WITS是世界银行、世界贸易组织、联合国统计局和贸易与发展会议等国际机构共同开发的,用于分析关税变化对贸易流动、市场准入和经济效益等影响的综合模型,提供了各种产品编码的对应表,详细请参阅http://wits.worldbank.org/product_concordance.html。
(8)对于GB/T 4754-2002到ISIC 3.0的转换表而言,913个行业小类,902个对应1个2位ISIC行业,11个对应2个2位ISIC行业,2个对应3个2位ISIC行业。对于HS 2002、2007和ISIC 3.0的转换表而言,每个6位HS产品均只对应1个2位ISIC行业。
(9)限于篇幅,未报告具体估算过程,如感兴趣可向作者索取。
(10)该数值与 Ma等(2015)基于2007年工业部门数据测算的结果(56.91%)接近。
(11)本文我们以3位字符标注部门。第1位均为“W”,指示部门分类编码来自WIOD 2013年版部门分类和编码;后2位标注部门编码,在编码为个位数时在十位加0补齐。2013年版WIOD的部门分类和编码见Timmer等(2015)的研究。
(12)具体数值根据图形数据计算得到,限于篇幅,未报告图形对应表格,备索。