我国贸易开放与温室气体排放动态关系实证研究
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摘要
自2001入世以来,中国对外贸易的开放程度越来越高,伴随而来的是温室气体的排放总量的快速增长。文章以温室气体CO_2为例,借助2000-2013年中国贸易和CO_2排放量数据,采取协整分析方法系统分析了中国对外贸易与CO_2排放间的动态关系,研究结果表明:贸易开放与温室气体排放间互动效果明显,呈现为正向影响,且维持长期均衡稳定,这说明我国对外贸易开放程度是温室气体排放快速变化的原因之一,即贸易开放程度越高,CO_2排放量越大,在此基础上给出了促进我国对外贸易开放与资源环境保护良性互动的相关建议。
Since China's accession to WTO, China's trade openness has been kept on a high level. At the same time, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions has sustained a rapid growth. Based on the cointegration regression method and several data concerning China's 2000-2013 import and export, and GDP and CO_2 emissions, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between China's foreign trade and greenhouse gas emissions(especially CO_2 emissions). Results are: openness to trade and the interactive effect between greenhouse gas emissions are obvious with positive influence, and it maintains a stable long-term equilibrium, suggesting that China's foreign trade openness is one of the reasons for the rapid change of greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. the higher the degree of openness to trade is, the greater the CO_2 emissions are. Then we give some specific suggestions.
Since China's accession to WTO, China's trade openness has been kept on a high level. At the same time, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions has sustained a rapid growth. Based on the cointegration regression method and several data concerning China's 2000-2013 import and export, and GDP and CO_2 emissions, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between China's foreign trade and greenhouse gas emissions(especially CO_2 emissions). Results are: openness to trade and the interactive effect between greenhouse gas emissions are obvious with positive influence, and it maintains a stable long-term equilibrium, suggesting that China's foreign trade openness is one of the reasons for the rapid change of greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. the higher the degree of openness to trade is, the greater the CO_2 emissions are. Then we give some specific suggestions.
引文
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[2]Dong Y,Ishikawa M,Liu X B,et al.An analysis of the driving forces of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(11):6784-6792.
[3]刘爱东,曾辉祥,刘文静.中国碳排放与出口贸易间脱钩关系实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(7):73-81.
[4]王惠,卞艺杰,王树乔.出口贸易、工业碳排放效率动态演进与空间溢出[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(1):3-19.
[5]陈继勇,彭巍,胡艺.中国碳强度的影响因素——基于各省市面板数据的实证研究[J].经济管理,2011(5):1-6.
[6]张云,杨来科.中国工业部门出口贸易、国内CO2排放与影响因素——基于结构分解的跨期对比分析[J].世界经济研究,2012(7):29-35,88.
[7]朱红根,卞琦娟,王玉霞.中国出口贸易与环境污染互动关系研究——基于广义脉冲响应函数的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2008(5):80-86.
[8]Jiang Y Q.Understanding openness and productivity growth in China:An empirical study of the Chinese provinces[J].China Economic Review,2011,22(3):290-298.
[9]白红菊,李晓铮.出口贸易与我国二氧化碳排放关系探讨[J].商业时代,2012(5):50-51.
[10]Shui B,Harriss R C.The role of CO2 embodiment in US-China trade[J].Energy Policy,2006,34(18):4063-4068.