中国影子银行业务规模与宏观经济增长影响研究
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摘要
本文在将影子银行业务分为体系内影子银行和体系外影子银行业务的基础上,运用了θ值法、资金流量核算和国民经济核算法对外部影子银行业务整体规模进行了系统测算;通过Granger因果检验方法对影子银行发展与中国宏观经济增长的关系进行了实证检验,最终确认了有效的测算方法。结果表明:国民经济核算法测算出的外部影子银行规模回归结果较好,认为国民经济核算法是基于实际最为有效的方法,并以此推算出截至2015年年末中国影子银行总体规模达30万亿,预计2016年总规模达36万亿,其中影子银行规模在2008~2009年急增,近两年速度有所放缓;格兰杰因果检验结果显示,中国经济增长与内外部影子银行的发展之间均存在单向因果关系,中国宏观经济发展是外部影子银行规模迅猛发展的原因,反之,外部影子银行规模扩大不是宏观经济发展的原因,但是内部影子银行发展是中国宏观经济发展的原因。文章最后,针对内外部影子银行业务扩张情况分别给予了建议。
This paper divides shadow banking into shadow banking in the system and shadow banking in the sys-tem, using the method of theta value, capital flow accounting and national economy accounting to make a sys-tematic calculation of the overall scale of the external shadow banking. Through the Granger causality test,this paper tests the relationship between the development of shadow banking and the macroeconomic growth in China and finally confirms the effective measurement method. The results show that the regression of the ex-ternal shadow banking scale calculated by the National Economic Accounting Law is better and the national eco-nomic accounting method is based on the most practical and practical method. Based on this, the total size of the shadow banking in China as of the end of 2015 reaches 30 trillion, The total size is expected to reach 36 trillion in 2016, of which the size of the shadow banking sector increased sharply in 2008 ~ 2009 and has slowed down in the past two years. The result of Granger causality test shows that the growth of China's econo-my and the development of internal and external shadow banking However, the development of internal shadow banking is the reason for the development of China's macroeconomy. On the contrary, the expansion of external shadow banking is not the reason of macroeconomic development. However, Finally, we give suggestions respec-tively for the expansion of the shadow banking in the external and internal markets.
This paper divides shadow banking into shadow banking in the system and shadow banking in the sys-tem, using the method of theta value, capital flow accounting and national economy accounting to make a sys-tematic calculation of the overall scale of the external shadow banking. Through the Granger causality test,this paper tests the relationship between the development of shadow banking and the macroeconomic growth in China and finally confirms the effective measurement method. The results show that the regression of the ex-ternal shadow banking scale calculated by the National Economic Accounting Law is better and the national eco-nomic accounting method is based on the most practical and practical method. Based on this, the total size of the shadow banking in China as of the end of 2015 reaches 30 trillion, The total size is expected to reach 36 trillion in 2016, of which the size of the shadow banking sector increased sharply in 2008 ~ 2009 and has slowed down in the past two years. The result of Granger causality test shows that the growth of China's econo-my and the development of internal and external shadow banking However, the development of internal shadow banking is the reason for the development of China's macroeconomy. On the contrary, the expansion of external shadow banking is not the reason of macroeconomic development. However, Finally, we give suggestions respec-tively for the expansion of the shadow banking in the external and internal markets.
引文
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[10]易宪容.美国次贷危机的信用扩张过度的金融分析[J].国际金融研究,2009(12):14-22.
[11]巴曙松.加强对影子银行系统的监管[J].中国金融,2009(14):24-25.
[12]李扬.影子银行体系发展与金融创新[J].中国金融,2011(12):31-32.
[13]周莉萍.论影子银行体系国际监管的进展、不足、出路[J].国际金融研究,2012(1):44-53.
[2]王浡力,李建军.中国影子银行的规模、风险评估与监管对策[J].中央财经大学学报,2013,1(5):20-25.
[3]沈悦,谢坤锋.影子银行发展与中国的经济增长[J].金融论坛,2013(3):9-14.
[4]Allen,Franklin,Qian,Jun,and Qian,Meijun,2005.Law,Finance,and Economics Growth in China[J.Journal of Financial Economics,77(1):57-116.
[5]余永.影子银行与银行系统性金融风险传递的理论与实证研究[J].全国商情·理论研究,2016(34):50-51.
[6]Arrow,Kenneth,J.What Has Economics to Say about Racial Discrimination[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1998,12(2):91-100.
[7]Becker,Gary,S.The Evidence against Banks Doesn’t Prove Bias[J].Business Week,1993,4.
[8]徐大怀.中国影子银行的研究现状[J].商,2016(10):195.
[9]王锦阳,刘锡良.影子银行体系:信用创造机制、内在不稳定性与宏观审慎监管[J].当代经济科学,2017,39(4):11-18.
[10]易宪容.美国次贷危机的信用扩张过度的金融分析[J].国际金融研究,2009(12):14-22.
[11]巴曙松.加强对影子银行系统的监管[J].中国金融,2009(14):24-25.
[12]李扬.影子银行体系发展与金融创新[J].中国金融,2011(12):31-32.
[13]周莉萍.论影子银行体系国际监管的进展、不足、出路[J].国际金融研究,2012(1):44-53.