三峡水库蓄水运行后入出库断面水质评价与预测
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摘要
三峡工程运行后库区水质问题关系库区环境安全和当地社会经济发展,把握三峡库区水质变化趋势是水污染治理的基础。采用内梅罗污染指数法,基于2004—2016年三峡库区长江干流入库断面(重庆朱沱)和出库断面(湖北宜昌南津关)水体DO、高锰酸盐指数和氨氮的水质监测数据评价库区水质,并利用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA模型)建立入出库断面水质变化趋势模型。结果表明:2004—2016年入库断面梅罗污染指数(Ip)为1.72～3.22,水质属轻污染—重污染,变化波动大;出库断面Ip为0.82～1.46,水质属清洁—轻污染,总体保持平稳;入库断面水质指标逐年偏向《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838—2002)中Ⅱ级标准,出库断面水质指标逐年偏向Ⅰ级标准,入出库断面首要污染物是氨氮,ARIMA模型预测显示未来入出库断面水质好转。
Water quality is essential to the environmental security and socioeconomic development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area after the Three Gorges Project operation.To analyze the changes of water quality in the reservoir after Three Gorges Project operation,the water quality and changing trends in the reservoir inflow(Zhutuo section in Chongqing)and outflow(Nanjinguan section in Hubei Yichang)of Changjiang River mainstream were evaluated based on the water quality monitoring data(DO,permanganate index,ammonia nitrogen)from 2004 to 2016 by using Nemerow pollution index method and ARIMA model.According to the calculation results,the Nemerow pollution index(Ip)of inflow section fluctuated largely from 1.72 to 3.22,the water pollution level was between light pollution and heavy pollution.The Ipof outflow section ranged smoothly from 0.82 to 1.46,the water pollution level was between clear and light pollution.The pollution factors of inflow were closer to Class Ⅱ of"Environmental quality standard of surface water"(GB 3838-2002),the pollution factors of outflow were closer to ClassⅠ.Ammonia nitrogen was the major pollutant in the reservoir.According to the ARIMA prediction model,water quality would keep well in the future.
Water quality is essential to the environmental security and socioeconomic development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area after the Three Gorges Project operation.To analyze the changes of water quality in the reservoir after Three Gorges Project operation,the water quality and changing trends in the reservoir inflow(Zhutuo section in Chongqing)and outflow(Nanjinguan section in Hubei Yichang)of Changjiang River mainstream were evaluated based on the water quality monitoring data(DO,permanganate index,ammonia nitrogen)from 2004 to 2016 by using Nemerow pollution index method and ARIMA model.According to the calculation results,the Nemerow pollution index(Ip)of inflow section fluctuated largely from 1.72 to 3.22,the water pollution level was between light pollution and heavy pollution.The Ipof outflow section ranged smoothly from 0.82 to 1.46,the water pollution level was between clear and light pollution.The pollution factors of inflow were closer to Class Ⅱ of"Environmental quality standard of surface water"(GB 3838-2002),the pollution factors of outflow were closer to ClassⅠ.Ammonia nitrogen was the major pollutant in the reservoir.According to the ARIMA prediction model,water quality would keep well in the future.
引文
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[21]刘兰玉,蒋昌潭,安贝贝,等.三峡水库175m蓄水对长江重庆段水质的影响[J].水资源保护,2012,28(2):34-36.
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[24]杨乐,张烨,侯培强,等.三峡水库中下游水体氮磷时空变化与机制分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(6).
[25]幸梅,张秀,何秀清.三峡水库156m水位蓄水前后长江干流水质的变化[J].三峡环境与生态,2008,1(3):1-4.
[26]乔飞,孟伟,郑丙辉,等.长江流域污染负荷核算及来源分析[J].环境科学研究,2013,26(1):80-87.
[27]杨磊磊,卢文喜,黄鹤,等.改进内梅罗污染指数法和模糊综合法在水质评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(6):41-44.
[28]罗芳,伍国荣,王冲,等.内梅罗污染指数法和单因子评价法在水质评价中的应用[J].环境与可持续发展,2016,41(5):87-89.
[2]邹家祥,翟红娟.三峡工程对水环境与水生态的影响及保护对策[J].水资源保护,2016,32(5):136-140.
[3]彭春兰,江玉姣,张馨月.三峡水库蓄水前后库区及坝下游水质变化与成因探讨[J].水利水电快报,2016,37(11):35-40.
[4]刘跃晨,袁兴中,王云.三峡库区重庆段水质安全综合评价研究[J].人民长江,2014,45(18):10-14.
[5]王小焕,邵景安,王金亮,等.三峡库区长江干流入出库水质评价及其变化趋势[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(2).
[6]张光贵,王丑明,田琪.三峡工程运行前后洞庭湖水质变化分析[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(4):734-742.
[7]王书锦,刘云根,侯磊,等.基于内梅罗指数的阳宗海湖滨湿地水环境质量评价[J].环境污染与防治,2016,38(8):6-9.
[8]王耕,王嘉丽,苏柏灵.基于ARIMA模型的辽河流域生态足迹动态模拟与预测[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(4).
[9]夏炳训,宁璇璇,杨鲁宁,等.浅谈海水溶解氧污染指数计算中的有关问题[J].环境污染与防治,2013,35(4):107-109.
[10]申锐莉,鲍征宇,周旻,等.洞庭湖湖区水质时空演化(1983-2004年)[J].湖泊科学,2007,19(6):677-682.
[11]刘微微,宋汉周,霍吉祥,等.基于季节ARIMA模型的紧水滩水库近坝区水质分析预测[J].勘察科学技术,2013(4):31-35.
[12]钟荣华,傅开道,何大明,等.基于ARIMA模型的补远江含沙量预测[J].水文,2011,31(6):48-52.
[13]张东莱.ARIMA模型在水位预测中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(2):238-240.
[14]唐启义,冯明光.DPS数据处理系统---实验设计、统计分析及模型优化[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[15]旦木仁加甫.中长期水文预报与SPSS应用[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2011.
[16]朱庆云.ARIMA模型在南京站月最高潮位预报中的应用[J].人民长江,2013,44(增刊1):20-21.
[17]周银军,金中武,徐涛.三峡水库库区上段水流特性分析[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(6):131-137.
[18]李锦秀,廖文根,黄真理.三峡工程对库区水流水质影响预测[J].水利水电技术,2002,33(10).
[19]吕怡兵,宫正宇,连军,等.长江三峡库区蓄水后水质状况分析[J].环境科学研究,2007,20(1):1-6.
[20]尹真真,李琎.三峡水库蓄水前后长江干流主要污染物浓度变化趋势分析研究[J].环境科学与管理,2014,39(3):42-45.
[21]刘兰玉,蒋昌潭,安贝贝,等.三峡水库175m蓄水对长江重庆段水质的影响[J].水资源保护,2012,28(2):34-36.
[22]NI J P,SHAO J A.The drivers of land use change in the migration area,Three Gorges Project,China:advances and prospects[J].Journal of Earth Science,2013,24(1):136-144.
[23]蔡庆华,孙志禹.三峡水库水环境与水生态研究的进展与展望[J].湖泊科学,2012,24(2):169-177.
[24]杨乐,张烨,侯培强,等.三峡水库中下游水体氮磷时空变化与机制分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(6).
[25]幸梅,张秀,何秀清.三峡水库156m水位蓄水前后长江干流水质的变化[J].三峡环境与生态,2008,1(3):1-4.
[26]乔飞,孟伟,郑丙辉,等.长江流域污染负荷核算及来源分析[J].环境科学研究,2013,26(1):80-87.
[27]杨磊磊,卢文喜,黄鹤,等.改进内梅罗污染指数法和模糊综合法在水质评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(6):41-44.
[28]罗芳,伍国荣,王冲,等.内梅罗污染指数法和单因子评价法在水质评价中的应用[J].环境与可持续发展,2016,41(5):87-89.