中国省域交通碳排放强度空间分异与聚类分析
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摘要
为评价中国省域异质性交通碳排放强度、提供差异化碳减排政策依据,基于IPCC法,对2002—2012年中国省域交通碳排放强度进行定量测算和空间特征分析。通过半变异函数、高低值聚类等方法,对中国省域交通碳排放强度的空间特征进行可视化表达,并重新划分了排放区域。结果表明:在2002,2007,2012年时间节点上,碳排强度在空间上均存在各向异性,最明显角度分别为43°、46°、41°,主变程变化不大,次变程变动明显;存在高值聚集和低值聚集,高值聚集一直分布于西北以及西南地区,但随时间推移,数量略有减少,低值聚集逐渐向中部地区延伸,异常值逐渐减少;综合聚类分析可分为东部及中部—甘宁地区—西部边区—云南地区四大类,各省市区的平均碳排强度在该分类方向上呈现递增势态。
In order to evaluate the heterogeneous transport carbon intensity in China's provincial region and provide policy recommendations of carbon-reduction for different provinces,this paper measured the China's provincial transport carbon intensity in 2002—2012 and analyzed its spatial characteristics based on the method of IPCC. By means of semi-variogram and high and low value clustering,this paper visualized the spatial characteristics of transport carbon intensity in China 's provincial regions. The results showed that: In 2002,2007 and 2012,the carbon intensity had anisotropy in space,which the most obvious angles were 43°、46°、41°,and the change of main variable range was little while the change of secondary variable range was obvious; There was a high value and low value aggregation. The high value aggregation distributed in the northwest and southwest regions,but over time the amount was slightly reduced. The low value aggregation extended to the midland and the abnormal value was gradually reduced; the east and central hinterland—the Gansu-Ningxia region—the west region—the Yunnan province four categories were clustered by comprehensive analysis,and the average carbon intensity showed an increasing trend in this direction.
In order to evaluate the heterogeneous transport carbon intensity in China's provincial region and provide policy recommendations of carbon-reduction for different provinces,this paper measured the China's provincial transport carbon intensity in 2002—2012 and analyzed its spatial characteristics based on the method of IPCC. By means of semi-variogram and high and low value clustering,this paper visualized the spatial characteristics of transport carbon intensity in China 's provincial regions. The results showed that: In 2002,2007 and 2012,the carbon intensity had anisotropy in space,which the most obvious angles were 43°、46°、41°,and the change of main variable range was little while the change of secondary variable range was obvious; There was a high value and low value aggregation. The high value aggregation distributed in the northwest and southwest regions,but over time the amount was slightly reduced. The low value aggregation extended to the midland and the abnormal value was gradually reduced; the east and central hinterland—the Gansu-Ningxia region—the west region—the Yunnan province four categories were clustered by comprehensive analysis,and the average carbon intensity showed an increasing trend in this direction.
引文
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[2]Saija,Salvatore,Romano D.A methodology for the estimation of road transport air emissions in urban areas of Italy[J].Atmospheric Environment,2002,36(34):5377-5383.
[3]Timilasina G R,Shrestha A.Transport sector CO2emissions growth in Asia:Underlying factors and policy options[J].Energy Policy,2009(37):4523-4539.
[4]谢守红,蔡海亚,夏刚祥.交通运输业碳排放的测算及影响因素[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(5):6-13
[5]杨彬,宁小莉.新型城镇化视角下中国交通运输碳排放测度及其空间格局分布[J].内蒙古师范大学学报(自然科学汉文版),2015(5):667-673.
[6]张诗青,王建伟,郑文龙.中国交通运输碳排放及影响因素时空差异分析[J].环境科学学报,2007,37(12):4789-4797.
[7]姚奕,倪勤.中国地区碳强度与FDI的空间计量分析:基于空间面板模型的实证研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(9):1432-1438.
[8]高洁.交通运输碳排放时空特征及演变机理研究[D].西安:长安大学,2013.
[9]IPCC.2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories[M].Tokyo:IGES,2006.
[10]Matheron G.Principles of geostatistics[J].Economic Geology,1963,58:1246-1266.
[11]Moran P.Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J].Biometrika,1950,37:17-23.