京津冀及周边“2+26”城市秋冬季大气重污染气象条件及其气候特征研究
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摘要
基于1961—2017年的地面常规气象观测资料以及ERA-Interim再分析资料等数据,采用大气自净能力指数(ASI)建立了重污染气象条件等级判别方法。通过对京津冀及周边"2+26"城市秋冬季大气重污染气象条件的长年代变化特征及其成因的分析,得出以下结论:从大气重污染气象条件多年平均水平来看,山西晋城从发生频次到极端性均为最高,北京、河北廊坊和河南郑州多发,河北保定、石家庄和衡水极端性较高。自1961年以来,虽然京津冀及周边"2+26"城市秋冬季大气重污染气象条件在历史上均有发生,但发生次数在2010年后显著增加,这是导致大气重污染频发的重要因素之一。相比2013—2016年,2017年秋冬季京津冀及周边"2+26"城市大气对污染物的清除能力相对较好,虽然北京不利于污染物扩散的气象条件仍然多发,但极端性明显降低。20世纪80年代和2010年以来京津冀及周边地区大气重污染气象条件发生频次均较多,这受到了气候变化背景下冷空气强度和大气滞留条件变化的明显影响,同时也在一定程度上受到了城市化的影响。
Based on surface observation meteorological data during 1961-2017 and ERA-interim reanalysis data, an evaluation method of different meteorological conditions for heavy air pollution(MCHAP) was set up by using atmospheric self-cleaning ability index(ASI). Through analyzing the historical variation characteristics of MCHAP of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in autumn and winter, the results were as follows. During 1961-2017,the frequency and extremity of MCHAP in Jincheng of Shanxi province ranked the first. MCHAP occurred more frequently in Beijing, Langfang of Hebei province and Zhengzhou of Henan province and more extremely in Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Hengshui of Hebei province. MCHAP had occurred in "2+26" cities around BeijingTianjin-Hebei region in history since 1961, but which were more common in recent years and caused much more sever air pollution events. During the period of 2013-2017, MCHAP occurred the least frequently in 2017 in "2+26"cities around Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region except Beijing. However the extremity of MCHAP in 2017 receded a lot in Beijing. Both in the 1980 s and the period of 2010-2017, MCHAP in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas took place the most frequently, which was affected by both the cold air intensity and the change of large-scale air stagnation condition. To some extent, the development of urbanization also plays a role in the decadal change of MCHAP.
Based on surface observation meteorological data during 1961-2017 and ERA-interim reanalysis data, an evaluation method of different meteorological conditions for heavy air pollution(MCHAP) was set up by using atmospheric self-cleaning ability index(ASI). Through analyzing the historical variation characteristics of MCHAP of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in autumn and winter, the results were as follows. During 1961-2017,the frequency and extremity of MCHAP in Jincheng of Shanxi province ranked the first. MCHAP occurred more frequently in Beijing, Langfang of Hebei province and Zhengzhou of Henan province and more extremely in Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Hengshui of Hebei province. MCHAP had occurred in "2+26" cities around BeijingTianjin-Hebei region in history since 1961, but which were more common in recent years and caused much more sever air pollution events. During the period of 2013-2017, MCHAP occurred the least frequently in 2017 in "2+26"cities around Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region except Beijing. However the extremity of MCHAP in 2017 receded a lot in Beijing. Both in the 1980 s and the period of 2010-2017, MCHAP in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas took place the most frequently, which was affected by both the cold air intensity and the change of large-scale air stagnation condition. To some extent, the development of urbanization also plays a role in the decadal change of MCHAP.
引文
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[25]Xu X,Zhao T,Liu F,et al.Climate modulation of the Tibetan Plateau on haze in China[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions,2016,15(3):28915-28937
[2]丁一汇,王会军.近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识[J].科学通报,2016,61(10):1029-1041.Ding Y H,Wang H J.Newly acquired knowledge on the scientific issues related to climate change over the recent 100 years in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2016,61(10):1029-1041(in Chinese)
[3]张人禾,李强,张若楠.2013年1月中国东部持续性强雾霾天气产生的气象条件分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,2014,44(1):27-36.Zhang R H,Li Q,Zhang R N.Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2014,44(1):27-36(in Chinese)
[4]蒋伊蓉,朱蓉,朱克云,等.京津冀地区重污染天气过程的污染气象条件模拟研究[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(9):2681-2692.Jiang Y R,Zhu R,Zhu K Y,et al.Numerical simulation on the air pollution potential in the severe air pollution episodes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2015,35(9):2681-2692(in Chinese)
[5]段云霞,李德勤,田莉,等.沈阳市一次持续性重污染天气过程特征分析[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5):803-810.Duan Y X,Li D Q,Tian L,et al.Characteristic analysis of a continuous and serious pollution weather process in Shenyang[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2016,34 (5):803-810(in Chinese)
[6]杨晓亮,杨敏.一次雾霾过程中气象因子与细颗粒物浓度关系的研究[J].干旱气象,2014,32(5):781-787.Yang X L,Yang M.Relationship between mereorological factors and fine particulate matter concentration during a fog and haze weather process[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2014,32(5):781-787(in Chinese)
[7]Wu P,Ding Y H,Liu Y J.Atmospheric circulation and dynamic mechanism for persistent haze events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Advances Atmospheric Sciences,2017,34(4):429-440
[8]张恒德,吕梦瑶,张碧辉,等.2014年2月下旬京津冀持续重污染过程的静稳天气及传输条件分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(12):4340-4351.Zhang H D,LüM Y,Zhang B H,et al.Analysis of the stagnant meteorological situation and the transmission condition of continuous heavy pollution course from February 20 to 26,2014 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(12):4340-4351(in Chinese)
[9]丁一汇,柳艳菊.近50年我国雾和霾的长期变化特征及其与大气湿度的关系[J].中国科学:地球科学,2014,44(1):37-48.Ding YH,Liu Y J.Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2014,44(1):37-48(in Chinese)
[10]Chen H P,Wang H J.Haze days in North China and the associated atmospheric circulations based on daily visibility data from 1960 to2012[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2015,120(12):5895-5909
[11]尹志聪,王会军,袁东敏.华北黄淮冬季霾年代际增多与东亚冬季风的减弱[J].科学通报,2015,60(15):1395-1400.Yin Z C,Wang HJ,Yuan D M.Interdecadal increase of haze in winter over North China and the Huang-Huai area and the weakening of the East Asia winter monsoon[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(15):1395-1400(in Chinese)
[12]吴萍,丁一汇,柳艳菊,等.中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风和大气湿度的关系[J].气象学报,2016,74(3):352-366.Wu P,Ding Y H,Liu Y J,et al.Influence of the East Asian winter monsoon and atmospheric humidity on the wintertime haze frequency over central-eastern China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2016,74(3):352-366(in Chinese)
[13]Cai W J,Li K,Liao H,et al.Weather conditions conductive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2017,7(4):257-262
[14]Han Z Y,Zhou B T,Xu Y,et al.Projected changes in haze pollution potential in China:an ensemble of regional climate model simulations[J].Atmospheric Chemistry&Physics,2017,17(16):1-46
[15]朱蓉,张存杰,梅梅.大气自净能力指数的气候特征与应用研究[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(10):3601-3610.Zhu R,Zhang C J,Mei M.The climate characteristics of atmospheric self-cleaning ability index and its application in China[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(10):3601-3610(in Chinese)
[16]国家技术监督局,国家环境保护局.制定地方大气污染物排放标准的技术方法:GB/T 13201-91[S].北京:中国标准出版社,1991.National Bureau of Technical Supervision,National Bureau of Environmental Protection.Techanical methods for making local emission standards of air pollutants:GB/T 13201-91[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,1991(in Chinese)
[17]梅梅,朱蓉.污染防治重点区域大气扩散条件变化趋势及成因[J].环境影响评价,2017,39(5):1-6.Mei M,Zhu R.Variation trend and genesis analysis of atmospheric diffusion conditions in key areas for pollution control[J].Environmental Impact Assessment,2017,39(5):1-6(in Chinese)
[18]张恒德,张碧辉,吕梦瑶,等.北京地区静稳天气综合指数的初步构建及其在环境气象中的应用[J].气象,2017,43(8):998-1004.Zhang H D,Zhang B H,LüM Y,et.al.Development and application of stable weather index of Beijing in environmental meteorology[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,43(8):998-1004(in Chinese)
[19]Wang J X L,Angell J K.Air stagnation climatology for the United States(1948-1998)[R/OL].NOAA.Air Resources Laboratory ATLASNo.1,1999[2018-09-20].http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/atlas.pdf
[20]王遵娅,司东,段丽瑶.冷空气过程检测指标:QX/T 393-2017[S].北京:气象出版社,2018.Wang Z Y,Si D,Duan L Y.Monitoring indices of cold air processes:QX/T 393-2017[S].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2018(in Chinese)
[21]张爱英,任国玉,郭军,等.近30年我国高空风速变化趋势分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(3):680-686.Zhang A Y,Ren G Y,Guo J,et al.Change trend analyses on upper-air wind speed over China in the past30 years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2009,28(3):680-686(in Chinese)
[22]Yin Z C,Wang H J,Chen H P.Understanding severe winter haze events in the North China Plain in 2014:roles of climate anomalies[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2017,17(3):1641-1651
[23]Wang H J,Chen H P,Liu J P,et al.Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze pollution in eastern China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2015,8(1):1-9
[24]Zhao S,Li J,Cheng S.Decadal variability in the occurrence of wintertime haze in central eastern China tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation[J].Scientific Reports,2016,6(1):27424
[25]Xu X,Zhao T,Liu F,et al.Climate modulation of the Tibetan Plateau on haze in China[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions,2016,15(3):28915-28937