农业气象灾害对粮食产量影响的实证研究——基于西南四省市数据
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摘要
文章利用滑动平均法、灰色关联度分析法,基于西南四省市的灾害数据,分析了农业气象灾害的变化特征,各省市受灾程度的空间分布特征和气象灾害对粮食产量的影响。结果表明:(1)1980—2002年洪涝灾害呈上升趋势,2002年后呈下降趋势,干旱灾害变化幅度不大;1980—1991年风雹灾害呈上升趋势,1991年后呈下降趋势,低温灾害在2005年后略呈上升趋势。(2)西南四省市中,主要的农业气象灾害是干旱。干旱灾害受灾程度:云南>贵州>重庆>四川。(3)气象灾害对粮食产量的影响程度。重庆:低温>干旱>风雹>洪涝;四川:低温>风雹>洪涝>干旱;贵州:低温>干旱>洪涝>风雹;云南:干旱>风雹>低温>洪涝。低温是西南四省市影响粮食产量的主要气象灾害,应加强防治。
Based on the data of four provinces and cities in southwest China,this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of agricultural meteorological disasters,the spatial distribution characteristics of disaster degree and the influence of meteorological disasters on grain yield by using the moving average method and the grey correlation analysis.The results showed that:(1) Flood disasters were on the rise between 1980 and 2002,and showed a downward trend after 2002,drought disasters had little change,hail disasters increased between 1980 and 1991,and it started to decrease after 1991,low-temperature disasters showed a slightly upward trend after 2005.(2) In southwest China,the drought is the main meteorological disasters,and disaster degree was as follows:Yunnan>Guizhou>Chongqing>Sichuan.(3) Degree of influence of meteorological disaster on grain yield.Chongqing:Low temperature>drought>hail>flood;Sichuan:Low temperature>hail>flood>drought;Guizhou:Low temperature>drought>flood>hail;Yunnan:Drought>hail>low temperature>flood.Low temperature is the main meteorological disasters in the southwest region,and we should strengthen the prevention and cure methods.
Based on the data of four provinces and cities in southwest China,this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of agricultural meteorological disasters,the spatial distribution characteristics of disaster degree and the influence of meteorological disasters on grain yield by using the moving average method and the grey correlation analysis.The results showed that:(1) Flood disasters were on the rise between 1980 and 2002,and showed a downward trend after 2002,drought disasters had little change,hail disasters increased between 1980 and 1991,and it started to decrease after 1991,low-temperature disasters showed a slightly upward trend after 2005.(2) In southwest China,the drought is the main meteorological disasters,and disaster degree was as follows:Yunnan>Guizhou>Chongqing>Sichuan.(3) Degree of influence of meteorological disaster on grain yield.Chongqing:Low temperature>drought>hail>flood;Sichuan:Low temperature>hail>flood>drought;Guizhou:Low temperature>drought>flood>hail;Yunnan:Drought>hail>low temperature>flood.Low temperature is the main meteorological disasters in the southwest region,and we should strengthen the prevention and cure methods.
引文
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[2]Wang F T,Zhao Z C,Wang S L,et al.Impact of the climate change to the agriculture ecology in China[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,2003:45-110.
[3]卢丽萍,程丛兰,刘伟东,等.30年来我国农业气象灾害对农业生产的影响及其空间分布特征[J].生态环境学报,2009(4):1573-1578.
[4]房世波,阳晶晶,周广胜.30年来我国农业气象灾害变化趋势和分布特点[J].自然灾害学报,2011(5):69-73.
[5]马建勇,许吟隆,潘婕.东北地区农业气象灾害的趋势变化及其对粮食产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2012(2):283-288.
[6]郭小燕,张家武,陈雪梅,等.甘肃省水旱灾害时空分布特征及其与粮食产量的关系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(6):132-137.
[7]孔坚文,王连喜,李琪,等.陕西省主要农业气象灾害分析及其对粮食产量的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015(4):220-226.
[8]刘吉平.吉林省重要农业气象灾害的地域组合规律及其预测[D].长春:东北师范大学,2002.
[9]司巧梅.基于决策树的农业气象灾害等级预测模型[J].安徽农业科学,2010(9):4925-4927.
[10]刘依兰,袁雷.日喀则市农业气象灾害风险评估与区划[J].西藏科技,2016(1):57-61.
[11]高晓容.东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评估研究[D].南京:南京信息工程,2012.
[12]陈怀亮,邓伟,张雪芬,等.河南小麦生产农业气象灾害风险分析及区划[J].自然灾害学报,2006(1):135-143.
[13]韩兰英,张强,姚玉璧,等.近60年中国西南地区干旱灾害规律与成因[J].地理学报,2014(5):632-639.
[14]李永华,徐海明,刘德.2006年夏季西南地区东部特大干旱及其大气环流异常[J].气象学报,2009(1):122-132.
[15]刘定辉,刘永红,熊洪,等.西南地区农业重大气象灾害危害及监测防控研究[J].中国农业气象,2011(S1):208-212.
[16]鲍文.西南地区农业气象灾害防灾减灾能力构建战略研究[J].广东农业科学,2012(18):206-210.
[17]王燕,黄国勤,赵其国,等.广西农业气象灾害特征分析及其对农业生产的影响[J].农学学报,2015(3):92-96.