1980—2013年湖北省地表太阳辐射时空特征及其驱动因子分析
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摘要
太阳辐射是驱动地表能量交换的源泉,其变化对人类生存环境影响重大。本文利用Yang Hybrid model(YHM)模型模拟地表太阳辐射值,通过线性倾向估计、相关分析等方法探讨了34年间(1980—2013年)湖北地区地表太阳辐射的时空变化特征及其驱动因子。研究表明:1)湖北地区地表太阳总辐射1980—2013年间增加了2.54×10-3MJ m-2day-1,四季变化差异明显,夏季>春季>秋季>冬季; 2)地表太阳总辐射值在湖北区域呈现出"东高西低、北多南少"的空间分布特征; 3)其主要影响因子是低云量和总云量,随着LCC减少(增加)研究区的SSR在增加(减少),LCC与SSR四季负相关关系明显(RWVE.LCC:-0.83—-0.59,RWVE.TCC:-0.70—-0.36)。
Solar radiation is the source of surface energy exchange,and its changes have a great impact on human living environment.In this paper,Yang-kun hybrid model is used to simulate surface solar radiation. Through linear propensity estimation and correlation analysis,the temporal and spatial variation of surface solar radiation in Hubei Province in recent 34 years( 1980-2013) and its influencing factors were discussed. And draw the following conclusion:( 1) The total solar radiation in Hubei area increased at the rate of2.54×10-3 MJ m-2 day-1,and the difference was significant in the four seasons,summer > spring > autumn > winter( 2) Radiation values show the spatial distribution characteristics of " high in the east and low in the west";( 3) The factors that have a significant effect on surface solar radiation in Hubei area are the low cloud cover and total cloud cover. Cloud cover is negatively correlated with surface solar radiation( RWVE.LCC:-0.83—-0.59,RWVE.TCC:-0.70—-0.36).
Solar radiation is the source of surface energy exchange,and its changes have a great impact on human living environment.In this paper,Yang-kun hybrid model is used to simulate surface solar radiation. Through linear propensity estimation and correlation analysis,the temporal and spatial variation of surface solar radiation in Hubei Province in recent 34 years( 1980-2013) and its influencing factors were discussed. And draw the following conclusion:( 1) The total solar radiation in Hubei area increased at the rate of2.54×10-3 MJ m-2 day-1,and the difference was significant in the four seasons,summer > spring > autumn > winter( 2) Radiation values show the spatial distribution characteristics of " high in the east and low in the west";( 3) The factors that have a significant effect on surface solar radiation in Hubei area are the low cloud cover and total cloud cover. Cloud cover is negatively correlated with surface solar radiation( RWVE.LCC:-0.83—-0.59,RWVE.TCC:-0.70—-0.36).
引文
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[15] Mummadisetty B C,Puri A,Sharifahmadian E,et al. A Hybrid Method for Compression of Solar Radiation Data Using Neural Networks[J]. Network and System Sciences,2015(8):217-228.
[16] Belaid S,Mellit A. Prediction of daily and mean monthly global solar radiation using support vector machine in an arid climate[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,2016(1):105-118.
[17] Chen R,Kang E,Yang J,et al. Validation of five global radiation models with measured daily data in China[J].Energy Conversion and Management,2004(45):1 759-1 769.
[18] Zhu X,Qiu X,Zeng Y,et al. A remote sensing model to estimate sunshine duration in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research,2015,29(1):144-154.
[19] Yang K,Huang G W,Tamai N. A hybrid model for estimating global solar radiation[J]. Solar Energy,2001(70):13-22.
[20] Yang K,Koike T,Ye B. Improving estimation of hourly,daily,and monthly solar radiation by importing global data sets[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2006,137(1-2):43-55.
[21]邱金桓,林耀荣.关于中国大气气溶胶光学厚度的一个参数化模式[J].气象学报,2001(3):368-372.
[22]赵春霞,郑有飞,吴荣军,等.我国东南沿海地区城市太阳辐射变化差异及其影响因素分析[J].热带气象学报,2013(3):465-473.
[2] Ohmura A. Observed decadal variations in surface solar radiation and their causes[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2009(114):9.
[3] Alpert P,Kishcha P,Kaufman Y J,et al. Global dimming or local dimming?:Effect of urbanization on sunlight availability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32(17):4.
[4] Wild M,Gilgen H,Roesch A,et al. From dimming to brightening:decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth's surface[J]. Science,2005,308(5723):847-850.
[5]李晓文,李维亮,周秀骥.中国近30年太阳辐射状况研究[J].应用气象学报,1998(1):25-32.
[6]查良松.我国地面太阳辐射量的时空变化研究[J].地理科学,1996(3):41-46.
[7]刘长坤,王艳君,郭媛. 1960年以来长江流域太阳总辐射的时空变化[J].南京信息工程大学学报,2012,4(3):233-240.
[8] Zhang T,Stackhouse P W,Gupta S K,et al. The validation of the GEWEX SRB surface shortwave flux data products using BSRN measurements:A systematic quality control,production and application approach[J]. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer,2013(122):127-140.
[9] Wild M,Ohmura A,Sch R C,et al. The Global Energy Balance Archive(GEBA):A database for the worldwide measured surface energy fluxes[J]. AIP Conference Proceedings,2017,1810(1):4.
[10] Zhang T,Stackhouse P W,Gupta S K,et al. Validating the new results from the next generation of the NASA GEWEX SRB against the BSRN,GEBA,WRDC as well as the PMEL data[J]. AIP Conference Proceedings,2017,1810(1):4.
[11] Bird. Simplified clear sky model for direct and diffuse insolation on horizontal surfaces[J]. Solar Energy Research Inst. 1981.
[12] Gueymard C A,Myers D R. Evaluation of conventional and high-performance routine solar radiation measurements for improved solar resource,climatological trends,and radiative modeling[J]. Solar Energy,2009,83(2):171-185.
[13] Angstrom A. Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radiation[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1924,50(210):121-126.
[14] Li R,Zhao L,Wu T,et al. Temporal and spatial variations of global solar radiation over the Qinghai! Tibetan Plateau during the past 40 years[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2013,113(3-4):573-583.
[15] Mummadisetty B C,Puri A,Sharifahmadian E,et al. A Hybrid Method for Compression of Solar Radiation Data Using Neural Networks[J]. Network and System Sciences,2015(8):217-228.
[16] Belaid S,Mellit A. Prediction of daily and mean monthly global solar radiation using support vector machine in an arid climate[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,2016(1):105-118.
[17] Chen R,Kang E,Yang J,et al. Validation of five global radiation models with measured daily data in China[J].Energy Conversion and Management,2004(45):1 759-1 769.
[18] Zhu X,Qiu X,Zeng Y,et al. A remote sensing model to estimate sunshine duration in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research,2015,29(1):144-154.
[19] Yang K,Huang G W,Tamai N. A hybrid model for estimating global solar radiation[J]. Solar Energy,2001(70):13-22.
[20] Yang K,Koike T,Ye B. Improving estimation of hourly,daily,and monthly solar radiation by importing global data sets[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2006,137(1-2):43-55.
[21]邱金桓,林耀荣.关于中国大气气溶胶光学厚度的一个参数化模式[J].气象学报,2001(3):368-372.
[22]赵春霞,郑有飞,吴荣军,等.我国东南沿海地区城市太阳辐射变化差异及其影响因素分析[J].热带气象学报,2013(3):465-473.