富营养化状态下太湖蓝藻水华气象条件影响的评估
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摘要
根据2005～2017年太湖流域气象观测数据与同步卫星观测数据分析结果,表明:太湖蓝藻水华在日平均气温为0～35℃的区间内都会出现,高发区间为15. 0～35℃,大面积蓝藻水华也多集中在20. 0～35℃区间内,33℃以上的高温会产生抑制作用。蓝藻水华在卫星过境前6 h平均风速为0. 5～3. 4 m/s区间内集中出现,占94. 7%,89%的大面积蓝藻水华出现在0～2. 0 m/s,风向主要影响蓝藻水华的移动和空间分布。降水的影响总体上呈负效应,但大面积蓝藻水华在前24小时有降水的情况下,其中小雨量级(<10 mm)的占比达88%;说明降水的适度扰动可能有利于大面积蓝藻水华形成;日照充足可能有利于蓝藻生长,但并非蓝藻水华形成的必要条件。在上述分析基础上,构建了气象评估多元回归模型,实际值和模拟值拟合的相关系数达0. 83;通过了0. 001显著性检验,可用于蓝藻水华的定量气象评估,从而为政府防控蓝藻水华提供决策依据。
According to the analysis results of meteorological observation data and synchronous satellite observation data from 2005 to 2017,it is shown that the Taihu Lake cyanobacteria blooms in the daily average temperature range of 0 ～ 35 ℃,and the high-incidence interval is 15. 0 ～ 35 ℃. The bloom in the interval of 20. 0 ～ 35 ℃,the high temperature above 33 ℃ will produce inhibition. The cyanobacterial bloom mainly occur in the first 6 hours.For the interval of 0. 5 ～ 3. 4 m/s,the proportion is 94. 7%. The large-scale cyanobacterial blooms mainly occur in the first 6 h,and the average wind speed is 0 ～ 2. 0 m/s,accounting for 89%. The wind direction mainly affects the movement and spatial distribution of cyanobacterial bloom. Precipitation generally has a negative impact on the occurrence and development of cyanobacterial bloom. Large-area cyanobacteria blooms have precipitation in the first24 hours,of which 88% are in the form of small rainfall( < 10 mm),indicating light rain. The moderate disturbances may have a certain promoting effect on large-scale cyanobacteria bloom. Sufficient sunshine may be one of the conditions for cyanobacterial bloom,but it is not a necessary condition. Based on the above analysis,a multivariate regression model of meteorological evaluation was constructed. The correlation coefficient between the actual value and the simulated value was 0. 83. It passed the 0. 001 significance test and can be used for quantitative meteorological evaluation of cyanobacterial blooms,Therefore,it provides decision-making basis for the government to prevent and control cyanobacteria bloom.
According to the analysis results of meteorological observation data and synchronous satellite observation data from 2005 to 2017,it is shown that the Taihu Lake cyanobacteria blooms in the daily average temperature range of 0 ～ 35 ℃,and the high-incidence interval is 15. 0 ～ 35 ℃. The bloom in the interval of 20. 0 ～ 35 ℃,the high temperature above 33 ℃ will produce inhibition. The cyanobacterial bloom mainly occur in the first 6 hours.For the interval of 0. 5 ～ 3. 4 m/s,the proportion is 94. 7%. The large-scale cyanobacterial blooms mainly occur in the first 6 h,and the average wind speed is 0 ～ 2. 0 m/s,accounting for 89%. The wind direction mainly affects the movement and spatial distribution of cyanobacterial bloom. Precipitation generally has a negative impact on the occurrence and development of cyanobacterial bloom. Large-area cyanobacteria blooms have precipitation in the first24 hours,of which 88% are in the form of small rainfall( < 10 mm),indicating light rain. The moderate disturbances may have a certain promoting effect on large-scale cyanobacteria bloom. Sufficient sunshine may be one of the conditions for cyanobacterial bloom,but it is not a necessary condition. Based on the above analysis,a multivariate regression model of meteorological evaluation was constructed. The correlation coefficient between the actual value and the simulated value was 0. 83. It passed the 0. 001 significance test and can be used for quantitative meteorological evaluation of cyanobacterial blooms,Therefore,it provides decision-making basis for the government to prevent and control cyanobacteria bloom.
引文
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3朱广伟,秦伯强,张运林,等.2005-2017年北部太湖水体叶绿素a和营养盐变化及影响因素[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):279-295Zhu Guangwei,Qin Boqiang,Zhang Yunlin,et al.Variation and driving factors of nutrients and chlorophyll-a concentrations in northern region of Lake Taihu,China,2005-2017[J].Lake Sci,2018,30(2):279-295
4 Cao Huansheng,Tao Yi,Kong Fanxiang.Relationship between temperature and cyanobacterial recruitment from sediment in laboratory and field studies[J].Journal of Freshwater Ecology,2008,23(3):405-412
5秦伯强,王小冬,汤祥明,等.太湖富营养化与蓝藻水华引起的饮用水危机---原因与对策[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(9):896-906Qin Boqiang,Wang Xiaodong,Tang Xiangming,et al.Drinking water crisis caused by eutrophication and cyanobacterial bloom in Lake Taihu:Cause and measurement[J].Advances in Earth Science,2007,22(9):896-906
6 O'Neila J M,Davisb T W,Burfordb M A,et al.The rise of harmful cyanobacteria blooms:The potential roles of eutrophication and climate change[J].Harmful Algae,2012,14:313-334
7 Te S H,Chen E Y,Gin K Y.Comparison of quantitative PCR and droplet digital PCR multiplex assays for two genera of bloomforming cyanobacteria,cylindrospermopsis and microcystis[J].Appl Environ Microbiol,2015,81(15):5203-5211
8 Rigosi A,Carey C C,Ibelings B W,et al.The interaction between climate warming and eutrophication to promote cyanobacteria is dependent on trophic state and varies among taxa[J].Limnology and Oceanography,2014,59(1):99-114
9商兆堂,任健,秦铭荣.气候变化与太湖蓝藻暴发的关系[J].生态学杂志,2010,29(1):55-56Shang Zhaotang,Ren Jian,Qin Mingrong,et al.Relationships between climatic change and cyanobacterial bloom in Taihu Lake[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2010,29(1):55-56
10孔繁翔,高光.大型浅水富营养化湖泊中蓝藻水华形成机理的思考[J].生态学报,2005,25(3):589-595Kong Fanxiang,Gao Guang.Hypothesis on cyanobacteria bloom-forming mechanism in large shallow eutrophic lakes.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2005,25(3):589-595
11 Zhang M,Duan H T,Shi X L,et al.Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms:implications for future climate change[J].Wat Res,2012,46(2):442-452
12 Cao Huansheng,Tao Yi,Kong Fanxiang,et al.Relationship between temperature and cyanobacterial recruitment from sediments in laboratory and field studies[J].Journal of Freshwater Ecology,2008,23(3):405-412
13 Rigosi A,Carey C C,Bas W I,et al.The interaction between climate warming and eutrophication to promote cyanobacteria is dependent on trophic state and varies among taxa[J].Limnology and Oceanography,2014,59(1):99-114
14李亚春,谢小萍,朱小莉,等.结合卫星遥感技术的太湖蓝藻水华形成温度特征分析[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(6):1256-1264Li Yachun,Xie Xiaoping,Zhu Xiaoli,et al.Applying remote sensing techniques in analysis of temperature features causing cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Taihu[J].Lake Sci,2016,28(6):1256-1264
15王成林,黄娟,钱新.高温微风条件下太湖流域风场时空特征分析[J].湖泊科学,2011,23(1):122-128Wang Chenglin,Huang Juan,Qian Xin.Spatio-temporal characteristics of wind field under high temperature and gentle breeze in Taihu Basin[J].Lake Sci,2011,23(1):122-128
16 Webster I,Hutchinson P A.Effect of wind on the distribution of phytoplankton cells in lakes revisited[J].Limnology&Oceanography,1994,39:365-373
17李亚春,谢小萍,杭鑫,等.结合卫星遥感技术的太湖蓝藻水华形成风场特征[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(2):525-533Li Yachun,Xie Xiaoping,Hang Xing,et al.Analysis of wind field features causing cyanobacteria bloom in Taihu Lake combined with remote sensing methods[J].China Environmental Sciencece,2016,36(2):525-533
18刘心愿,宋林旭,纪道斌,等.降雨对蓝藻水华消退影响及其机制分析[J].环境科学,2018,39(2):774-782Liu Xinyuan,Song Linxu,Ji Daobin,et al.Effect of the rainfall on extinction of cyanobacteria bloom and its mechanism analysis[J].Environmental Science,2018,39(2):774-782
19詹旭,邹路易.湖泊水体中营养盐控制技术研究进展[J].环境科技,2009,22(4):60-64Zhan Xu,Zou Luyi.Study advances on technology of nutrient control in lake water body[J].Enviromental Science and Technology,2009,22(4):60-64
20赵孟绪,韩博平.汤溪水库蓝藻水华发生的影响因子分析[J].生态学报,2005,25(7):1554-1561Zhao Mengxu,Han Boping.Analysis of factors affecting cyanobacteria bloom in a tropical reservoir(Tangxi Reservoir,China)[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2005,25(7):1554-1561
21武胜利,刘诚,孙军,等.卫星遥感太湖蓝藻水华分布及其气象影响要素分析[J].气象,2009,35(1):18-23Wu Shengli,Liu Cheng,Sun Jun,et al.Remote sensing and analysis on meteorological factors of blue algal bloom in Lake Tai[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(1):18-23
22巫娟,陈雪初,孔海南,等.光照度对水华鱼腥藻细胞比重与藻丝长度的影响研究[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(5):875-879Wu Juan,Chen Xuechu,Kong Hainan,et al.The effect of light intensity on the cell density and chain length of Anabaena flos-aquae[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(5):875-879
23段洪涛,张寿选,张渊智.太湖蓝藻水华遥感监测方法[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(2):145-152Duan Hongtao,Zhang Shouxuan,Zhang Yuanzhi.Cyanobacteria bloom monitoring with remote sensing in Lake Taihu[J].Lake Sci,2008,20(2):145-152
24韩秀珍,吴朝阳,郑伟,等.基于水面实测光谱的太湖蓝藻卫星遥感研究[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(6):724-731Han Xiuzhen,Wu Chaoyang,Zheng Wei,et al.Satellite remote sensing of cyanophyte using observed spectral measurements over the Taihu Lake[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2010,21(6):724-731
25 Hu C M,Lee Z P,Ma R H,et al.Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS)observations of cyanobacteria blooms in Taihu Lake,China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2010,115:1-20
26潘梅娥,杨昆,洪亮.基于环境一号卫星影像的内陆水体叶绿素a浓度遥感定量反演模型研究[J].科学技术与工程,2013,13(15):4288-4233Pan Meie,Yang Kun,Hong Liang.Remote sensing quantitative retrieval models research of inland water chlorophyll-a concentration based on HJ-1 satellite images[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2013,13(15):4288-4233
27曾宪报.统计权数论[D].大连:东北财经大学,1998Zeng Xianbao.Statistical weight theory[D].Dalian:Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,1998
28秦伯强,杨桂军,马建荣,等.太湖蓝藻水华“暴发”的动态特征及其机制[J].科学通报,2016,61(7):759-770Qin B Q,Yang G J,Ma J R,et al.Dynamics of variability and mechanism of harmful cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Taihu,China[J].Chin Sci Bull,2016,61:759-770
29张海春,陈雪初,李春杰.光照度对蓝藻垂直迁移特性影响研究[J].环境污染与防治,2010,32(5):64-67Zhang Haichun,Chen Xuechu,Li Chunjie.The effect of light intensity on cyanophytes vertical distribution[J].Enviromental Pollution Control,2010,32(5):64-67
2戴秀丽,钱佩琪,叶凉,等.太湖水体氮、磷浓度演变趋势(1985-2015年)[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(5):935-943Dai Xiuli,Qian Peiqi,Ye Liang,et al.Changes in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in Lake Taihu,1985-2015[J].Lake Sci,2016,28(5):935-943
3朱广伟,秦伯强,张运林,等.2005-2017年北部太湖水体叶绿素a和营养盐变化及影响因素[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):279-295Zhu Guangwei,Qin Boqiang,Zhang Yunlin,et al.Variation and driving factors of nutrients and chlorophyll-a concentrations in northern region of Lake Taihu,China,2005-2017[J].Lake Sci,2018,30(2):279-295
4 Cao Huansheng,Tao Yi,Kong Fanxiang.Relationship between temperature and cyanobacterial recruitment from sediment in laboratory and field studies[J].Journal of Freshwater Ecology,2008,23(3):405-412
5秦伯强,王小冬,汤祥明,等.太湖富营养化与蓝藻水华引起的饮用水危机---原因与对策[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(9):896-906Qin Boqiang,Wang Xiaodong,Tang Xiangming,et al.Drinking water crisis caused by eutrophication and cyanobacterial bloom in Lake Taihu:Cause and measurement[J].Advances in Earth Science,2007,22(9):896-906
6 O'Neila J M,Davisb T W,Burfordb M A,et al.The rise of harmful cyanobacteria blooms:The potential roles of eutrophication and climate change[J].Harmful Algae,2012,14:313-334
7 Te S H,Chen E Y,Gin K Y.Comparison of quantitative PCR and droplet digital PCR multiplex assays for two genera of bloomforming cyanobacteria,cylindrospermopsis and microcystis[J].Appl Environ Microbiol,2015,81(15):5203-5211
8 Rigosi A,Carey C C,Ibelings B W,et al.The interaction between climate warming and eutrophication to promote cyanobacteria is dependent on trophic state and varies among taxa[J].Limnology and Oceanography,2014,59(1):99-114
9商兆堂,任健,秦铭荣.气候变化与太湖蓝藻暴发的关系[J].生态学杂志,2010,29(1):55-56Shang Zhaotang,Ren Jian,Qin Mingrong,et al.Relationships between climatic change and cyanobacterial bloom in Taihu Lake[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2010,29(1):55-56
10孔繁翔,高光.大型浅水富营养化湖泊中蓝藻水华形成机理的思考[J].生态学报,2005,25(3):589-595Kong Fanxiang,Gao Guang.Hypothesis on cyanobacteria bloom-forming mechanism in large shallow eutrophic lakes.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2005,25(3):589-595
11 Zhang M,Duan H T,Shi X L,et al.Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms:implications for future climate change[J].Wat Res,2012,46(2):442-452
12 Cao Huansheng,Tao Yi,Kong Fanxiang,et al.Relationship between temperature and cyanobacterial recruitment from sediments in laboratory and field studies[J].Journal of Freshwater Ecology,2008,23(3):405-412
13 Rigosi A,Carey C C,Bas W I,et al.The interaction between climate warming and eutrophication to promote cyanobacteria is dependent on trophic state and varies among taxa[J].Limnology and Oceanography,2014,59(1):99-114
14李亚春,谢小萍,朱小莉,等.结合卫星遥感技术的太湖蓝藻水华形成温度特征分析[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(6):1256-1264Li Yachun,Xie Xiaoping,Zhu Xiaoli,et al.Applying remote sensing techniques in analysis of temperature features causing cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Taihu[J].Lake Sci,2016,28(6):1256-1264
15王成林,黄娟,钱新.高温微风条件下太湖流域风场时空特征分析[J].湖泊科学,2011,23(1):122-128Wang Chenglin,Huang Juan,Qian Xin.Spatio-temporal characteristics of wind field under high temperature and gentle breeze in Taihu Basin[J].Lake Sci,2011,23(1):122-128
16 Webster I,Hutchinson P A.Effect of wind on the distribution of phytoplankton cells in lakes revisited[J].Limnology&Oceanography,1994,39:365-373
17李亚春,谢小萍,杭鑫,等.结合卫星遥感技术的太湖蓝藻水华形成风场特征[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(2):525-533Li Yachun,Xie Xiaoping,Hang Xing,et al.Analysis of wind field features causing cyanobacteria bloom in Taihu Lake combined with remote sensing methods[J].China Environmental Sciencece,2016,36(2):525-533
18刘心愿,宋林旭,纪道斌,等.降雨对蓝藻水华消退影响及其机制分析[J].环境科学,2018,39(2):774-782Liu Xinyuan,Song Linxu,Ji Daobin,et al.Effect of the rainfall on extinction of cyanobacteria bloom and its mechanism analysis[J].Environmental Science,2018,39(2):774-782
19詹旭,邹路易.湖泊水体中营养盐控制技术研究进展[J].环境科技,2009,22(4):60-64Zhan Xu,Zou Luyi.Study advances on technology of nutrient control in lake water body[J].Enviromental Science and Technology,2009,22(4):60-64
20赵孟绪,韩博平.汤溪水库蓝藻水华发生的影响因子分析[J].生态学报,2005,25(7):1554-1561Zhao Mengxu,Han Boping.Analysis of factors affecting cyanobacteria bloom in a tropical reservoir(Tangxi Reservoir,China)[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2005,25(7):1554-1561
21武胜利,刘诚,孙军,等.卫星遥感太湖蓝藻水华分布及其气象影响要素分析[J].气象,2009,35(1):18-23Wu Shengli,Liu Cheng,Sun Jun,et al.Remote sensing and analysis on meteorological factors of blue algal bloom in Lake Tai[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(1):18-23
22巫娟,陈雪初,孔海南,等.光照度对水华鱼腥藻细胞比重与藻丝长度的影响研究[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(5):875-879Wu Juan,Chen Xuechu,Kong Hainan,et al.The effect of light intensity on the cell density and chain length of Anabaena flos-aquae[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(5):875-879
23段洪涛,张寿选,张渊智.太湖蓝藻水华遥感监测方法[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(2):145-152Duan Hongtao,Zhang Shouxuan,Zhang Yuanzhi.Cyanobacteria bloom monitoring with remote sensing in Lake Taihu[J].Lake Sci,2008,20(2):145-152
24韩秀珍,吴朝阳,郑伟,等.基于水面实测光谱的太湖蓝藻卫星遥感研究[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(6):724-731Han Xiuzhen,Wu Chaoyang,Zheng Wei,et al.Satellite remote sensing of cyanophyte using observed spectral measurements over the Taihu Lake[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2010,21(6):724-731
25 Hu C M,Lee Z P,Ma R H,et al.Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS)observations of cyanobacteria blooms in Taihu Lake,China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2010,115:1-20
26潘梅娥,杨昆,洪亮.基于环境一号卫星影像的内陆水体叶绿素a浓度遥感定量反演模型研究[J].科学技术与工程,2013,13(15):4288-4233Pan Meie,Yang Kun,Hong Liang.Remote sensing quantitative retrieval models research of inland water chlorophyll-a concentration based on HJ-1 satellite images[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2013,13(15):4288-4233
27曾宪报.统计权数论[D].大连:东北财经大学,1998Zeng Xianbao.Statistical weight theory[D].Dalian:Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,1998
28秦伯强,杨桂军,马建荣,等.太湖蓝藻水华“暴发”的动态特征及其机制[J].科学通报,2016,61(7):759-770Qin B Q,Yang G J,Ma J R,et al.Dynamics of variability and mechanism of harmful cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Taihu,China[J].Chin Sci Bull,2016,61:759-770
29张海春,陈雪初,李春杰.光照度对蓝藻垂直迁移特性影响研究[J].环境污染与防治,2010,32(5):64-67Zhang Haichun,Chen Xuechu,Li Chunjie.The effect of light intensity on cyanophytes vertical distribution[J].Enviromental Pollution Control,2010,32(5):64-67