金沙江流域云南片水文极小值演变及生态基流保障分析
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摘要
基于金沙江流域云南片内主要支流1968—2017年水文径流极小值及年月平均流量数据,采用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall等分析其极小值演变特征,采用Tennant法及地区经验综合分析其河道生态基流,并对其生态基流保障程度进行了评价。结果表明:东北区、西北区为年极小值对应每100 km~2产流高值区,滇中区为低值区,地区差异显著,东北区年径流极小值呈现显著波动减少趋势,滇中区、中北区及西北区变化趋势不一;主要支流平均仅有47%的年份生态基流得到全部保障,53%年份水文极小值低于生态基流,其中东北区及西北区保障程度较高,滇中区保障程度低;预计东北区受天然来水影响、西北区部分河流受水利水电工程调度影响,生态基流保障压力将逐步加大,滇中区除昆明、曲靖部分河流生态基流保障程度将逐步得到改善外,其他大部分河流将持续处于高压状态。
Based on the minimum hydrological runoff value and annual mean flow data of the main tributaries in the region of Yunnan area in the Jinsha River Basin from 1968 to 2017, the evolution characteristics of minimum values were analyzed by linear regression and Mann-Kendall method, and the river ecological base flow were comprehensively analyzed by Tennant method and regional experience, and the protection degree of ecological base flow was evaluated. The results show that, the northeast and northwest areas of the study area are the high value area of the annual minimum value corresponding to the high yield area per 100 km~2, and the Dianzhong area is the low value area. The regional differences are significant. The annual minimum runoff value in the northeast region shows a significant fluctuation decreasing trend. The variation trend of Dianzhong area, North Central District and Northwest area is different. On average, only 47 percent years of ecological base flow are guaranteed and 53 percent years hydrological minimum value is lower than ecological base flow in the main tributaries, in which Northeast China and Northwest China have a higher level of security, while central Yunnan has a lower level of security. It is predicted that the northeast region will be affected by natural water inflow and some rivers in the northwest region will be affected by water conservancy and hydropower project dispatch. The pressure of ecological base flow security will gradually increase. In Dianzhong area, except for some of the rivers in Kunming and Qujing, the degree of ecological base flow protection will be gradually improved, most of the other rivers will continue to be in a high pressure state.
Based on the minimum hydrological runoff value and annual mean flow data of the main tributaries in the region of Yunnan area in the Jinsha River Basin from 1968 to 2017, the evolution characteristics of minimum values were analyzed by linear regression and Mann-Kendall method, and the river ecological base flow were comprehensively analyzed by Tennant method and regional experience, and the protection degree of ecological base flow was evaluated. The results show that, the northeast and northwest areas of the study area are the high value area of the annual minimum value corresponding to the high yield area per 100 km~2, and the Dianzhong area is the low value area. The regional differences are significant. The annual minimum runoff value in the northeast region shows a significant fluctuation decreasing trend. The variation trend of Dianzhong area, North Central District and Northwest area is different. On average, only 47 percent years of ecological base flow are guaranteed and 53 percent years hydrological minimum value is lower than ecological base flow in the main tributaries, in which Northeast China and Northwest China have a higher level of security, while central Yunnan has a lower level of security. It is predicted that the northeast region will be affected by natural water inflow and some rivers in the northwest region will be affected by water conservancy and hydropower project dispatch. The pressure of ecological base flow security will gradually increase. In Dianzhong area, except for some of the rivers in Kunming and Qujing, the degree of ecological base flow protection will be gradually improved, most of the other rivers will continue to be in a high pressure state.
引文
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[12] 冶运涛,梁犁丽,龚家国,等.长江上游流域降水结构时空演变特性[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):164-171.(YE Yuntao,LIANG Lili,GONG Jiaguo,et al.Spatial-temporal variability characteristics of precipitation structure across the upper Yangtze River Basin,China[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(2):164-171.(in Chinese))
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[14] 郑金秀,高少波,池仕运,等.金沙江下游水生态状况评价及保护战略[J].环境科学与技术,2014(9):174-179.(ZHENG Jinxiu,GAO Shaobo,CHI Shiyun,et al.Hydro-ecological assessment and protection strategies of Jinsha River downstream[J].Environmental Science & Technology,2014(9):174-179.(in Chinese))
[15] 荣艳淑,巩琳,卢寿德.云南2009—2014年持续性气象水文干旱特征及成因分析[J].水资源保护,2018,34(3):22-29.(RONG Yanshu,GONG Lin,LU Shoude.Analysis on characteristics and causes of persistent meteorological and hydrological drought in Yunnan from 2009 to 2014[J].Water Resources Protection,2018,34(3):22-29.(in Chinese))
[16] 《云南河湖》编委会.云南河湖[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,2010
[17] 赵文焕,高袁.金沙江流域径流年代际变化特性分析[J].人民长江,2011,42(6):98-100.(ZHAO Wenhuan,GAO Yuan.Analysis on annual and decadal runoff variation characteristics of Jinsha River Basin[J].Yangtze River,2011,42(6):98-100.(in Chinese))
[18] 倪深海,崔广柏.河道生态环境需水量的计算[J].人民黄河,2002,24(9):37-38.(NI Shenhai,CUI Guangbo.The calculation of ecosystem water need in dawen river channel[J].Yellow River,2002,24(9):37-38.(in Chinese))
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[20] 张泽聪,韩会玲,陈丽.基于改进的Tennant法的大凌河生态基流计算[J].水电能源科学,2013(9):29-31.(ZHANG Zecong,HAN Huiling,CHEN Li.Calculation of ecological base flow in Dalinghe River based on improved tennant method[J].Water Resources and Power,2013(9):29-31.(in Chinese))
[21] 徐伟,董增川,罗晓丽,等.基于改进7Q10法的滦河生态流量分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(5):454-457.(XU Wei,DONG Zengchuan,LUO Xiaoli,et al.Analysis of ecological flow in Luanhe River based on improved 7Q10 method[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2016,44(5):454-457.(in Chinese))
[22] 张代青,高军省.河道内生态环境需水量计算方法的研究现状及其改进探讨[J].水资源与水工程学报,2006,17(4):68-73.(ZHANG Daiqing,GAO Junsheng.Discuss on the research situation of estimating methods of eco-environmental water requirements in river course and its modification[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2006,17(4):68-73.(in Chinese))
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