零支付对条件价值法评估结果的影响——以三江平原湿地生态保护价值为例
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摘要
二分式条件价值法(CVM)数据存在大量的零观察值,且不同零观察值的驱动机制存在显著差异。以往研究只区分真实零支付和抗议支付的表述偏好,未能深入探索抗议支付的成因,使CVM评估结果的有效性受到质疑。因此,文中基于样本间支付差异,利用二元Logit模型对不同零支付的影响因素进行识别,构建spike模型对包含零观察的样本数据进行参数估计。以三江平原湿地生态保护价值为例进行实证分析,得到spike模型估计下黑龙江省居民平均支付意愿为112.495元/(人·年),低于随机效用函数模型计算结果124.70元/(人·年)。研究发现,收入和政府信任度是驱动受访者产生抗议支付的主要因素,政府应加强信息透明化、健全生态保护机制,来提高公众信任感。研究结论为CVM研究中零观察值的处理提供参考,为降低CVM抗议性偏差提供有效途径。
Double-bound dichotomous is a popular choice to conduct respondent's willingness to pay of eco-tourism resources in contingent valuation method. Data in contingent valuation survey usually contains a large number of zero observations, and there are significant differences in subgroups of zero observations' driving mechanisms. Previous studies only distinguished the representational preferences of true zero payments and protest payments, without exploring the economic implications of protest responses, and making the validity of CVM assessments questionable. Therefore, based on the subgroups of respondents, this resesaarch used the binary Logit model to identify the influencing factors of different types of zero responses, and a spike model that contains a non-zero probability of zero observation was applied. Using the ecological protection value of the Sanjiang Plain wetland as an example, the analysis results showed that the mean WTP of residents in Heilongjiang Province driven by spike model is 112.495 CNY a year per person, it is lower than the random utility function model calculation result of 124.70 CNY a year per person. The study revealed that income and government trust are the main factors driving respondents to generate protests attitudes. The government should strengthen information transparency and improve ecological protection mechanisms to enhance public trust. The conclusions of this study provide a reference for the treatment of zero observations in the CVM study, and provide an effective way to reduce the CVM protest bias.
Double-bound dichotomous is a popular choice to conduct respondent's willingness to pay of eco-tourism resources in contingent valuation method. Data in contingent valuation survey usually contains a large number of zero observations, and there are significant differences in subgroups of zero observations' driving mechanisms. Previous studies only distinguished the representational preferences of true zero payments and protest payments, without exploring the economic implications of protest responses, and making the validity of CVM assessments questionable. Therefore, based on the subgroups of respondents, this resesaarch used the binary Logit model to identify the influencing factors of different types of zero responses, and a spike model that contains a non-zero probability of zero observation was applied. Using the ecological protection value of the Sanjiang Plain wetland as an example, the analysis results showed that the mean WTP of residents in Heilongjiang Province driven by spike model is 112.495 CNY a year per person, it is lower than the random utility function model calculation result of 124.70 CNY a year per person. The study revealed that income and government trust are the main factors driving respondents to generate protests attitudes. The government should strengthen information transparency and improve ecological protection mechanisms to enhance public trust. The conclusions of this study provide a reference for the treatment of zero observations in the CVM study, and provide an effective way to reduce the CVM protest bias.
引文
[1] 敖长林,王静,高琴,等.CVM数据分析中的半参数模型及实证研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(9):2332-2338.
[2] 张茵,蔡运龙.条件估值法评估环境资源价值的研究进展[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(2):317-328.
[3] 张翼飞.CVM评估生态服务价值的经济有效性和可靠性理论述评[J].生态经济,2007(6):34-37,56.
[4] Meyerhoff J,Liebe U.Protest beliefs in contingent valuation:Explaining their motivation[J].Ecological Economics,2006,57(4):583-594.
[5] Strazzera E,Scarpa R,Calia P,et al.Modelling zero values and protest responses in contingent valuation surveys[J].Applied Economics,2003a,35:133-138.
[6] Carson R T.Contingent valuation:a user’s guide[J].Environmental Science & Technology,2000,34(8):1413-1418.
[7] García-Llorente M,Martín-López B,Montes C.Exploring the motivations of protesters in contingent valuation:Insights for conservation policies[J].Environmental Science & Policy,2011,14(1):76-88.
[8] 张明军,孙美平,姚晓军,等.不确定性影响下的平均支付意愿参数估计[J].生态学报,2007,27(9):3852-3859.
[9] 高琴,敖长林,陈红光,等.基于居民生态认知的非使用价值支付意愿空间分异研究-以三江平原湿地为例[J].生态学报,2014,34(7):1851-1859.
[10] Strazzera E,Genius M,Scarpa R,et al.The effect of protest votes on the estimates of WTP for use values of recreational sites[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2003,25(4):461-476.
[11] Jorgensen B S,Syme G J.Protest responses and willingness to pay:Attitude toward paying for storm water pollution abatement[J].Ecological Economics,2000,33(2):251-265.
[12] Halstead J M,Lindsay B E,Brown C M.Use of the Tobit model in contingent valuation:Experimental evidence from the Pemigewasset Wilderness area[J].Journal of Environmental Management,1991,33(1):79-89.
[13] Cragg J.Some statistical models for limited dependent variables with application to the demand for durable goods[J].Econometrica,1971,39(5):829-844.
[14] 刘辉煌,吴伟.基于双栏模型的我国农户贷款可得性及其影响因素分析[J].经济经纬,2015,32(2):37-42.
[15] 敖长林,董育宁,焦扬,等.基于双栏模型的三江平原湿地生态保护价值评估[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):929-938.
[16] Jones A M.A double-hurdle model of cigarette consumption[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,1989,4(1):23-39.
[17] Kristr?m B.Spike models in contingent valuation:theory and illustrations[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,1995,79(3):1013-1023.
[18] 杜丽永,蔡志坚,蒋瞻.长江流域生态环境恢复的经济价值估算-以南京段居民支付意愿调查为例[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2011,11(4):34-42.
[19] Choi H Y,Kwak S J,Yoo S H.The preservation value of the Bangudae Petroglyphs,the 285th Korean National Treasure[J].Journal of Cultural Heritage,2016,18:380-383.
[20] Loureiro M L,Loomis J B,Nahuelhual L.A comparison of a parametric and a non-parametric method to value a non-rejectable public good[J].Journal of Forest Economics,2005,10(2):61-74.
[21] 程欢.大城市交通需求管理及拥堵收费政策研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2015.
[22] Hu W.Use of spike models in measuring consumers’willingness to pay for non-GM oil[J].Journal of Agricultural & Applied Economics,2006,38(3):525-538.
[23] 杜丽永,蔡志坚,杨加猛,等.运用Spike模型分析CVM中零响应对价值评估的影响-以南京市居民对长江流域生态补偿的支付意愿为例[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(6):1007-1018.
[24] SeungHoon Y,SeungJun K.Using a spike model to deal with zero response data from double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys[J].Applied Economics Letters,2002,9(14):929-932.
[25] 敖长林,周领,焦扬,等.初始投标值数量和样本容量对双边界二分式CVM的影响[J].生态学报,2016,36(3):854-862.
[26] 佟锐,敖长林,焦扬,等.基于廉价磋商的CVM假想偏差修正研究-以松花江流域为例[J].资源科学,2016,38(3):501-511.
[27] Hanemann W M.Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discrete responses[J].American Journal of Agricultural,1984,66:332-341.
[28] Kristr?m B.Spike models in contingent valuation[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1997,79(3):1013-1023.
[29] 张翼飞.CVM中零支付意愿的经济学分析[C].咸阳:2008年全国生态补偿国际会议(ICEC2008)论文集,2008
[30] Lo A Y,Jim C Y.Protest response and willingness to pay for culturally significant urban trees:Implications for contingent valuation method[J].Ecological Economics,2015,114(6):58-66.
[2] 张茵,蔡运龙.条件估值法评估环境资源价值的研究进展[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(2):317-328.
[3] 张翼飞.CVM评估生态服务价值的经济有效性和可靠性理论述评[J].生态经济,2007(6):34-37,56.
[4] Meyerhoff J,Liebe U.Protest beliefs in contingent valuation:Explaining their motivation[J].Ecological Economics,2006,57(4):583-594.
[5] Strazzera E,Scarpa R,Calia P,et al.Modelling zero values and protest responses in contingent valuation surveys[J].Applied Economics,2003a,35:133-138.
[6] Carson R T.Contingent valuation:a user’s guide[J].Environmental Science & Technology,2000,34(8):1413-1418.
[7] García-Llorente M,Martín-López B,Montes C.Exploring the motivations of protesters in contingent valuation:Insights for conservation policies[J].Environmental Science & Policy,2011,14(1):76-88.
[8] 张明军,孙美平,姚晓军,等.不确定性影响下的平均支付意愿参数估计[J].生态学报,2007,27(9):3852-3859.
[9] 高琴,敖长林,陈红光,等.基于居民生态认知的非使用价值支付意愿空间分异研究-以三江平原湿地为例[J].生态学报,2014,34(7):1851-1859.
[10] Strazzera E,Genius M,Scarpa R,et al.The effect of protest votes on the estimates of WTP for use values of recreational sites[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2003,25(4):461-476.
[11] Jorgensen B S,Syme G J.Protest responses and willingness to pay:Attitude toward paying for storm water pollution abatement[J].Ecological Economics,2000,33(2):251-265.
[12] Halstead J M,Lindsay B E,Brown C M.Use of the Tobit model in contingent valuation:Experimental evidence from the Pemigewasset Wilderness area[J].Journal of Environmental Management,1991,33(1):79-89.
[13] Cragg J.Some statistical models for limited dependent variables with application to the demand for durable goods[J].Econometrica,1971,39(5):829-844.
[14] 刘辉煌,吴伟.基于双栏模型的我国农户贷款可得性及其影响因素分析[J].经济经纬,2015,32(2):37-42.
[15] 敖长林,董育宁,焦扬,等.基于双栏模型的三江平原湿地生态保护价值评估[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):929-938.
[16] Jones A M.A double-hurdle model of cigarette consumption[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,1989,4(1):23-39.
[17] Kristr?m B.Spike models in contingent valuation:theory and illustrations[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,1995,79(3):1013-1023.
[18] 杜丽永,蔡志坚,蒋瞻.长江流域生态环境恢复的经济价值估算-以南京段居民支付意愿调查为例[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2011,11(4):34-42.
[19] Choi H Y,Kwak S J,Yoo S H.The preservation value of the Bangudae Petroglyphs,the 285th Korean National Treasure[J].Journal of Cultural Heritage,2016,18:380-383.
[20] Loureiro M L,Loomis J B,Nahuelhual L.A comparison of a parametric and a non-parametric method to value a non-rejectable public good[J].Journal of Forest Economics,2005,10(2):61-74.
[21] 程欢.大城市交通需求管理及拥堵收费政策研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2015.
[22] Hu W.Use of spike models in measuring consumers’willingness to pay for non-GM oil[J].Journal of Agricultural & Applied Economics,2006,38(3):525-538.
[23] 杜丽永,蔡志坚,杨加猛,等.运用Spike模型分析CVM中零响应对价值评估的影响-以南京市居民对长江流域生态补偿的支付意愿为例[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(6):1007-1018.
[24] SeungHoon Y,SeungJun K.Using a spike model to deal with zero response data from double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys[J].Applied Economics Letters,2002,9(14):929-932.
[25] 敖长林,周领,焦扬,等.初始投标值数量和样本容量对双边界二分式CVM的影响[J].生态学报,2016,36(3):854-862.
[26] 佟锐,敖长林,焦扬,等.基于廉价磋商的CVM假想偏差修正研究-以松花江流域为例[J].资源科学,2016,38(3):501-511.
[27] Hanemann W M.Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discrete responses[J].American Journal of Agricultural,1984,66:332-341.
[28] Kristr?m B.Spike models in contingent valuation[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1997,79(3):1013-1023.
[29] 张翼飞.CVM中零支付意愿的经济学分析[C].咸阳:2008年全国生态补偿国际会议(ICEC2008)论文集,2008
[30] Lo A Y,Jim C Y.Protest response and willingness to pay for culturally significant urban trees:Implications for contingent valuation method[J].Ecological Economics,2015,114(6):58-66.