金沙江白格堰塞湖溃坝洪水分析
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摘要
准确分析预测堰塞湖溃坝洪峰流量可为应急处置方案的制定和应急决策提供技术支撑。采用基于双曲线模型的冲刷侵蚀溃坝洪水分析方法,结合"10·11"和"11·03"白格堰塞湖溃坝洪水分析预测与应急抢险实践,对"10·11"白格堰塞湖自动漫顶溢流过程、"11·03"白格堰塞湖开挖人工导流槽和不开挖人工导流槽溃坝洪水过程进行了分析计算,并与应急除险过程中的实测资料进行对比。结果表明,数值计算结果与实测数据基本一致。这说明冲刷侵蚀模型的溃坝洪水分析方法可较好地分析预测堰塞坝溃决过程,白格堰塞坝溃决洪水分析预测时冲刷侵蚀率取a=1. 1,b=0. 000 5是合适的。此研究成果可供类似土石坝、堰塞坝风险分析和处理类似堰塞湖提供一定参考。
Accurate analysis and prediction of landslide dam break flood discharge can provide technical support for emergency response plan formulation and emergency decision-making. Based on the dam breach flood analysis model with hyperbolic erosion model, the overtopping flood process of '10.11' Baige landslide dam and the breach floods of '11.03'Baige landslide dam with and without artificial diversion are analyze respectively, and the calculation results are compared with measured breach flood data. The comparison shows that the numerical calculation results are basically consistent with the measured data during implementing emergency disposal. It is indicated that the dam break flood analysis method based on the erosion model can better analyze and predict landslide dam breach process, and the erosion rate that taking a=1.1, b=0.0005 is suitable in the breach analysis of Baige landslide dam. This study can provide references to the risk analysis and emergency mitigation of similar barrier lakes or earth dams.
Accurate analysis and prediction of landslide dam break flood discharge can provide technical support for emergency response plan formulation and emergency decision-making. Based on the dam breach flood analysis model with hyperbolic erosion model, the overtopping flood process of '10.11' Baige landslide dam and the breach floods of '11.03'Baige landslide dam with and without artificial diversion are analyze respectively, and the calculation results are compared with measured breach flood data. The comparison shows that the numerical calculation results are basically consistent with the measured data during implementing emergency disposal. It is indicated that the dam break flood analysis method based on the erosion model can better analyze and predict landslide dam breach process, and the erosion rate that taking a=1.1, b=0.0005 is suitable in the breach analysis of Baige landslide dam. This study can provide references to the risk analysis and emergency mitigation of similar barrier lakes or earth dams.
引文
[1]刘宁,杨启贵,陈祖煜,等.堰塞湖风险处置[M].武汉:长江出版社,2016.
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[14] GAUCHER J, MARCHE C, MAHDI T F. Experimental investiga-tion of the hydraulic erosion of noncohesive compacted soils[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,136(11):901-913.
[15]周兴波,陈祖煜,黄跃飞,等.特高坝及梯级水库群设计安全标准研究Ⅲ:梯级土石坝连溃风险分析[J].水利学报,2015,46(7):765-772.
[2]周兴波,陈祖煜,李守义,等.高风险等级堰塞湖应急处置洪水重现期标准[J].水利学报,2015,46(4):405-413.
[3]王光谦,王永强,刘磊,等.堰塞坝及其溃决模拟研究评述[J].人民黄河,2015,37(9):1-7.
[4]刘磊,张红武,钟德钰,等.堰塞坝漫顶溃决计算方法研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(4):379-386.
[5]任强,陈生水,钟启明,等.堰塞坝的形成机理与溃决风险[J].水利水电科技进展,2011,31(5):30-34.
[6]周兴波,陈祖煜,陈淑婧,等.基于MIKE11的堰塞坝溃决过程数值模拟[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(6):23-27.
[7]水电水利规划设计总院.金沙江白格堰塞湖情况报告[R].北京:水电水利规划设计总院,2018,10.
[8]水电水利规划设计总院.金沙江白格堰塞湖应急处置工作简报[R].北京:水电水利规划设计总院,2018,11.
[9] ZHOU Xingbo, CHEN Zuyu, YU Shu, et al. Risk analysis and emer-gency actions for Hongshiyan barrier lake[J]. Natural Hazards,2015,79(3):1933-1959.
[10] CHEN Zuyu, MA Liqiu, YU Shu, et al. Back analysis of the drai-ning process of the Tangjiashan barrier lake[J]. Journal of HydraulicEngineering,2015,141(4):05014011.
[11] SINGH V P, SCARLATOS P D. Analysis of gradual earth-dam fail-ure[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,1988,114(1):21-42.
[12]吴持恭.水力学(上册)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2003:330-333.
[13] MACCHIONE F. Model for predicting floods due to earthen dambreaching. I:Formulation and evaluation[J]. Journal of HydraulicEngineering,2008,134(12):1688-1696.
[14] GAUCHER J, MARCHE C, MAHDI T F. Experimental investiga-tion of the hydraulic erosion of noncohesive compacted soils[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,136(11):901-913.
[15]周兴波,陈祖煜,黄跃飞,等.特高坝及梯级水库群设计安全标准研究Ⅲ:梯级土石坝连溃风险分析[J].水利学报,2015,46(7):765-772.