基于EW-AHP和未确知测度理论的崩塌危险性评价
|
摘要
危险性评价和预测是崩塌灾害防治工作的重要内容。为了解决传统危险性评价中指标权重确定方法的不足以及影响因素的不确定性,本文以G4217线汶川—理县段公路沿线发育的崩塌为例,据其特有的地质环境条件,选取坡向、坡度等12项影响因子作为崩塌危险性评价指标,并建立了危险性分级标准。将熵权法(EW)和层次分析法(AHP)耦合在一起,确定了崩塌影响因子的权重,采用基于EW-AHP和未确知测度理论的综合评价模型,对研究区内20个崩塌进行危险性评价,并与现场调查结果和熵权法(EW)的评价结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:该模型的评价结果更符合实际情况,评价方法合理有效,可为今后崩塌危险性预测提供新思路。
Hazard assessment and prediction are the important contents of prevention and control of disasters. This paper attempts to solve the shortcomings of the method for determining the weight of indicators in traditional hazard assessment and the uncertainty of influencing factors. It takes the collapses in Wenchuan-Lixian highway of G4217 line as an example. Twelve factors including slope and aspect are selected as indicators of collapse hazard assessment. Hazard grading standards are established according to its unique geological environment conditions. The entropy weight method and analytical hierarchy process are coupled to determine the weights of the factors affecting collapse. A comprehensive evaluation model is established using EW-AHP and unascertained measure theory.Hazard assessment is carried out for 20 collapses in the study area and compared with the results of the field survey and assessment results using EW. Results show that the assessment results of the model are more in line with the actual situation and assessment method is reasonable and effective. It can provide a new idea for the prediction of the hazard of collapse in the future.
Hazard assessment and prediction are the important contents of prevention and control of disasters. This paper attempts to solve the shortcomings of the method for determining the weight of indicators in traditional hazard assessment and the uncertainty of influencing factors. It takes the collapses in Wenchuan-Lixian highway of G4217 line as an example. Twelve factors including slope and aspect are selected as indicators of collapse hazard assessment. Hazard grading standards are established according to its unique geological environment conditions. The entropy weight method and analytical hierarchy process are coupled to determine the weights of the factors affecting collapse. A comprehensive evaluation model is established using EW-AHP and unascertained measure theory.Hazard assessment is carried out for 20 collapses in the study area and compared with the results of the field survey and assessment results using EW. Results show that the assessment results of the model are more in line with the actual situation and assessment method is reasonable and effective. It can provide a new idea for the prediction of the hazard of collapse in the future.
引文
Cui X G.2015.The risk assessment and measures analysis of rockfall in Wenchuan-Marerkang highway[D].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology.
Dai L X,Xu Q,Fan X M,et al.2017.A preliminary study on spatial distribution patterns of landslides triggered by Jiuzhaigou Earthquake in Sichuan on August 8th,2017 and their susceptibility assessment[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(4):1151-1164.
Fan Z Y,Gou X F,Qin M Y,et al.2018.Information and logistic regression models based coupling analysis for susceptibility of geological hazards[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(2):340-347.
Gong F Q,Li X B,Dong L J,et al.2008.Unascertained goaf risk evaluation based on uncertainty measurement theory[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,27(2):323-330.
Han Z H,Chen X,Wang X L.2017.Risk assessment for Luojiaqinggangling rockfall[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(2):520-530.
He H J,Su S R,Wang X J,et al.2013.Study and application on comprehensive evaluation model of landslide hazard based on uncertainty measure theory[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),44(4):1564-1570.
He M L,Li J,Li L,et al.2012.Unascertained measure model of assessment tunnel collapse risk and its application in engineering[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),43(9):3665-3671.
He Z G.2016.Research about evaluation methods of suitability in southern Shanxi relocation site selection-A case study of Mian country[D].Xi'an:Chang'an University.
Huang D,Shi X Z,Qiu X Y,et al.2017.Stability gradation of rock slopes based on multilevel uncertainty measure-set pair analysis theory[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),48(4):1057-1064.
Ji L H.2012.Structural reliability of concrete building based on nonlinear unascertained mathematics[J].Concrete,(4):21-23.
Kanungo D P,Arora M K,Sarkar S,et al.2006.A comparative study of conventional,ANN black box,fuzzy and combined neural and fuzzy weighting procedures for landslide susceptibility zonation in Darjeeling Himalayas[J].Engineering Geology,85(3-4):347-366.
Li J X,Wang C M,Wang G C.2013.Landslide risk assessment based on combination weighting-unascertained measure theory[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,34(2):468-474.
Li X Z,Zhong W,Zhang X G,et al.2017.Hazard ways of landslides and avalanches on road engineering in Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(5):1245-1251.
Liu H L,Hu J,Li L P,et al.2017.Rockfall shock risk assessment study of a tunnel portal section[J].Journal of Railway Engineering Society,34(5):65-73.
Liu H,Chen H.2012.Hazard assessment of debris flow based on uncertainty measure theory and AHP[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,21(8):1032-1038.
Liu K D,Pang Y J,Sun G Y,et al.1999.The uncertainty measurement evaluation on a city's environmental quality[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice Engineering,19(12):52-58.
Luan T T,Xie Z H,Wu Z Z,et al.2014.Risk evaluation model of waste dump landslide based on uncertainty measurement theory[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),45(5):1612-1617.
Pan G Y,Du P Z,Chen G S.2017.Risk evaluation of confined waterinrush from coal seam floor based on EW-FAHP[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,44(1):131-136.
Qin S W,Ma Z J,Li X,et al.2017.Hazard assessment of collapse and landslide induced by Tianchi volcano in Changbai Mountain area based on simplified Nemark displacement model[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),47(3):826-838.
Shan B,Chen J P,Wang Q.2014.Debris flow susceptibility analysis based on theories of minimum entropy and uncertainty measurement[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,35(5):1445-1454.
Wang X M,Kang Q,Qin J C,et al.2013.Application of AHP-euthenics model to safety evaluation of rock slope stability[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),44(6):2455-2462.
Wang Y Z,Wang X F.2017.Evaluation of rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in Qinling Mountains Huayang scenic area based on the unascertained measure model[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,26(1):67-79.
Yang Z H,Zhang Y S,Guo C B,et al.2018.Sensitivity analysis on causative factors of geohazards in eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(3):673-683.
崔晓光.2015.汶马高速公路崩塌灾害风险评估与防治措施分析[D].成都:成都理工大学.
戴岚欣,许强,范宣梅,等.2017.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟地震诱发地质灾害空间分布规律及易发性评价初步研究[J].工程地质学报,25(4):1151-1164.
樊芷吟,苟晓峰,秦明月,等.2018.基于信息量模型与Logistic回归模型耦合的地质灾害易发性评价[J].工程地质学报,26(2):340-347.
宫凤强,李夕兵,董陇军,等.2008.基于未确知测度理论的采空区危险性评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,27(2):323-330.
韩振华,陈鑫,王学良,等.2017.四川罗家青杠岭崩塌风险的定量评价研究[J].工程地质学报,25(2):520-530.
何虎军,苏生瑞,王孝健,等.2013.基于未确知测度的崩塌危险性综合评价模型研究及应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),44(4):1564-1570.
何美丽,刘霁,刘浪,等.2012.隧道坍方风险评价的未确知测度模型及工程应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),43(9):3665-3671.
贺子光.2016.陕南移民搬迁选址适宜性评价方法研究——以勉县为例[D].西安:长安大学.
黄丹,史秀志,邱贤阳,等.2017.基于多层次未确知测度-集对分析的岩质边坡稳定性分级体系[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),48(4):1057-1064.
吉龙华.2012.混凝土结构可靠性非线性未确知分析[J].混凝土,(4):21-23.
李军霞,王常明,王钢城.2013.基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的滑坡危险性评价[J].岩土力学,34(2):468-474.
李秀珍,钟卫,张小刚,等.2017.川藏交通廊道滑坡崩塌灾害对道路工程的危害方式分析[J].工程地质学报,25(5):1245-1251.
刘海,陈华.2012.基于层次分析法的未确知测度理论泥石流危险性评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,21(8):1032-1038.
刘洪亮,胡杰,李利平,等.2017.隧道洞口段危岩崩塌落石冲击风险评价研究[J].铁道工程学报,34(5):65-73.
刘开第,庞彦军,孙光勇,等.1999.城市环境质量的未确知测度评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,19(12):52-58.
栾婷婷,谢振华,吴宗之,等.2014.基于未确知测度理论的排土场滑坡风险评价模型[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),45(5):1612-1617.
潘国营,杜鹏卓,陈国胜.2017.基于EW-FAHP的煤层底板承压水突水危险评价[J].水文地质工程地质,44(1):131-136.
秦胜伍,马中骏,刘绪,等.2017.基于简化Newmark模型的长白山天池火山诱发崩塌滑坡危险性评价[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),47(3):826-838.
单博,陈剑平,王清.2014.基于最小熵理论和未确知测度理论的泥石流敏感性分析[J].岩土力学,35(5):1445-1454.
王新民,康虔,秦健春,等.2013.层次分析法-可拓学模型在岩质边坡稳定性安全评价中的应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),44(6):2455-2462.
王彦泽,王晓峰.2017.基于未确知测度模型的秦岭华阳古镇景区暴雨防灾减灾能力评价[J].自然灾害学报,26(1):67-79.
杨志华,张永双,郭长宝,等.2018.青藏高原东缘地质灾害影响因子敏感性分析[J].工程地质学报,26(3):673-683.
Dai L X,Xu Q,Fan X M,et al.2017.A preliminary study on spatial distribution patterns of landslides triggered by Jiuzhaigou Earthquake in Sichuan on August 8th,2017 and their susceptibility assessment[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(4):1151-1164.
Fan Z Y,Gou X F,Qin M Y,et al.2018.Information and logistic regression models based coupling analysis for susceptibility of geological hazards[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(2):340-347.
Gong F Q,Li X B,Dong L J,et al.2008.Unascertained goaf risk evaluation based on uncertainty measurement theory[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,27(2):323-330.
Han Z H,Chen X,Wang X L.2017.Risk assessment for Luojiaqinggangling rockfall[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(2):520-530.
He H J,Su S R,Wang X J,et al.2013.Study and application on comprehensive evaluation model of landslide hazard based on uncertainty measure theory[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),44(4):1564-1570.
He M L,Li J,Li L,et al.2012.Unascertained measure model of assessment tunnel collapse risk and its application in engineering[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),43(9):3665-3671.
He Z G.2016.Research about evaluation methods of suitability in southern Shanxi relocation site selection-A case study of Mian country[D].Xi'an:Chang'an University.
Huang D,Shi X Z,Qiu X Y,et al.2017.Stability gradation of rock slopes based on multilevel uncertainty measure-set pair analysis theory[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),48(4):1057-1064.
Ji L H.2012.Structural reliability of concrete building based on nonlinear unascertained mathematics[J].Concrete,(4):21-23.
Kanungo D P,Arora M K,Sarkar S,et al.2006.A comparative study of conventional,ANN black box,fuzzy and combined neural and fuzzy weighting procedures for landslide susceptibility zonation in Darjeeling Himalayas[J].Engineering Geology,85(3-4):347-366.
Li J X,Wang C M,Wang G C.2013.Landslide risk assessment based on combination weighting-unascertained measure theory[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,34(2):468-474.
Li X Z,Zhong W,Zhang X G,et al.2017.Hazard ways of landslides and avalanches on road engineering in Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(5):1245-1251.
Liu H L,Hu J,Li L P,et al.2017.Rockfall shock risk assessment study of a tunnel portal section[J].Journal of Railway Engineering Society,34(5):65-73.
Liu H,Chen H.2012.Hazard assessment of debris flow based on uncertainty measure theory and AHP[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,21(8):1032-1038.
Liu K D,Pang Y J,Sun G Y,et al.1999.The uncertainty measurement evaluation on a city's environmental quality[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice Engineering,19(12):52-58.
Luan T T,Xie Z H,Wu Z Z,et al.2014.Risk evaluation model of waste dump landslide based on uncertainty measurement theory[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),45(5):1612-1617.
Pan G Y,Du P Z,Chen G S.2017.Risk evaluation of confined waterinrush from coal seam floor based on EW-FAHP[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,44(1):131-136.
Qin S W,Ma Z J,Li X,et al.2017.Hazard assessment of collapse and landslide induced by Tianchi volcano in Changbai Mountain area based on simplified Nemark displacement model[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),47(3):826-838.
Shan B,Chen J P,Wang Q.2014.Debris flow susceptibility analysis based on theories of minimum entropy and uncertainty measurement[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,35(5):1445-1454.
Wang X M,Kang Q,Qin J C,et al.2013.Application of AHP-euthenics model to safety evaluation of rock slope stability[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),44(6):2455-2462.
Wang Y Z,Wang X F.2017.Evaluation of rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in Qinling Mountains Huayang scenic area based on the unascertained measure model[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,26(1):67-79.
Yang Z H,Zhang Y S,Guo C B,et al.2018.Sensitivity analysis on causative factors of geohazards in eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(3):673-683.
崔晓光.2015.汶马高速公路崩塌灾害风险评估与防治措施分析[D].成都:成都理工大学.
戴岚欣,许强,范宣梅,等.2017.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟地震诱发地质灾害空间分布规律及易发性评价初步研究[J].工程地质学报,25(4):1151-1164.
樊芷吟,苟晓峰,秦明月,等.2018.基于信息量模型与Logistic回归模型耦合的地质灾害易发性评价[J].工程地质学报,26(2):340-347.
宫凤强,李夕兵,董陇军,等.2008.基于未确知测度理论的采空区危险性评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,27(2):323-330.
韩振华,陈鑫,王学良,等.2017.四川罗家青杠岭崩塌风险的定量评价研究[J].工程地质学报,25(2):520-530.
何虎军,苏生瑞,王孝健,等.2013.基于未确知测度的崩塌危险性综合评价模型研究及应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),44(4):1564-1570.
何美丽,刘霁,刘浪,等.2012.隧道坍方风险评价的未确知测度模型及工程应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),43(9):3665-3671.
贺子光.2016.陕南移民搬迁选址适宜性评价方法研究——以勉县为例[D].西安:长安大学.
黄丹,史秀志,邱贤阳,等.2017.基于多层次未确知测度-集对分析的岩质边坡稳定性分级体系[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),48(4):1057-1064.
吉龙华.2012.混凝土结构可靠性非线性未确知分析[J].混凝土,(4):21-23.
李军霞,王常明,王钢城.2013.基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的滑坡危险性评价[J].岩土力学,34(2):468-474.
李秀珍,钟卫,张小刚,等.2017.川藏交通廊道滑坡崩塌灾害对道路工程的危害方式分析[J].工程地质学报,25(5):1245-1251.
刘海,陈华.2012.基于层次分析法的未确知测度理论泥石流危险性评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,21(8):1032-1038.
刘洪亮,胡杰,李利平,等.2017.隧道洞口段危岩崩塌落石冲击风险评价研究[J].铁道工程学报,34(5):65-73.
刘开第,庞彦军,孙光勇,等.1999.城市环境质量的未确知测度评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,19(12):52-58.
栾婷婷,谢振华,吴宗之,等.2014.基于未确知测度理论的排土场滑坡风险评价模型[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),45(5):1612-1617.
潘国营,杜鹏卓,陈国胜.2017.基于EW-FAHP的煤层底板承压水突水危险评价[J].水文地质工程地质,44(1):131-136.
秦胜伍,马中骏,刘绪,等.2017.基于简化Newmark模型的长白山天池火山诱发崩塌滑坡危险性评价[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),47(3):826-838.
单博,陈剑平,王清.2014.基于最小熵理论和未确知测度理论的泥石流敏感性分析[J].岩土力学,35(5):1445-1454.
王新民,康虔,秦健春,等.2013.层次分析法-可拓学模型在岩质边坡稳定性安全评价中的应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),44(6):2455-2462.
王彦泽,王晓峰.2017.基于未确知测度模型的秦岭华阳古镇景区暴雨防灾减灾能力评价[J].自然灾害学报,26(1):67-79.
杨志华,张永双,郭长宝,等.2018.青藏高原东缘地质灾害影响因子敏感性分析[J].工程地质学报,26(3):673-683.