一种改进的煤矿突水危险性评价方法
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摘要
由于地质条件的复杂和试验材料的欠缺,煤矿突水危险性评价中影响因子存在随机性、模糊性、灰性、未知性等不确定性,无法确定合理的权重,导致评价结果不准确。针对此问题,将D-S理论引入到模糊综合评价方法中,利用D-S理论的冲突证据合成方法,消除融合数据之间的冲突性来确定指标权重,解决了传统权重分配过程中过于绝对化的问题,从而为准确评价矿井突水危险等级提供合理依据。运用改进的模糊综合评价方法对南山煤矿突水危险性评价,评价结果为"较安全",符合工程实际。实例分析表明:D-S理论在突水危险性评价中能更好地考虑指标的不确定性,基于D-S理论的模糊综合评价精度较高,具有较高的应用价值。
Due to the complex geological conditions and the lack of test materials,there are various uncertainties in affecting factors of water inrush risk evaluation,such as randomness,fuzziness,grey and unpredictability.Therefore,it was unable to determine reasonable weights,leading to inaccurate evaluation results.To solve this problem,the D-S theory was introduced into the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.By using the conflict evidence combination method of D-S theory,the conflict in data fusion was eliminated to determine the index weights,and the problem that the traditional weight allocation process was too absolute was solved.Thereby,a reasonable basis for the accurate evaluation of water inrush risk level was provided.The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the water inrush risk of Nanshan coal mine,the result of evaluation was "safe",which was in accord with the actual project.The case study showed that the D-S theory could better consider the uncertainty of the indexes in water inrush risk evaluation,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on the DS theory was of high accuracy and high application value.
Due to the complex geological conditions and the lack of test materials,there are various uncertainties in affecting factors of water inrush risk evaluation,such as randomness,fuzziness,grey and unpredictability.Therefore,it was unable to determine reasonable weights,leading to inaccurate evaluation results.To solve this problem,the D-S theory was introduced into the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.By using the conflict evidence combination method of D-S theory,the conflict in data fusion was eliminated to determine the index weights,and the problem that the traditional weight allocation process was too absolute was solved.Thereby,a reasonable basis for the accurate evaluation of water inrush risk level was provided.The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the water inrush risk of Nanshan coal mine,the result of evaluation was "safe",which was in accord with the actual project.The case study showed that the D-S theory could better consider the uncertainty of the indexes in water inrush risk evaluation,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on the DS theory was of high accuracy and high application value.
引文
[1]林登科,沈斐敏,廖素娟.基于可拓理论与区间赋权的煤矿水害安全评价[J].安全与环境工程,2015,22(2):124-128.
[2]范立民,马雄德.浅埋煤层矿井突水溃沙灾害研究进展[J].煤炭科学技术,2016(01):8-12.
[3]范立民,马雄德,蒋辉,等.西部生态脆弱矿区矿井突水溃沙危险性分区[J].煤炭学报,2016,(03):531-536.
[4]刘剑民,王继仁,何治良.煤矿矿井突水水源的多元矩阵模型分析[J].科技导报,2014(09):79-83.
[5]王长申,孙亚军,杭远.基于事故树分析的煤矿潜在突水危险评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009(02):298-305.
[6]潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬.基于改进模糊层次分析法的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].煤矿安全,2016(09):194-197.
[7]王震,朱术云,段宏飞,等.基于灰色系统关联分析的矿井突水水源判别[J].煤矿安全,2012(07):132-135.
[8]吴立荣,程卫民,鹿广利.基于模糊评判人工神经网络的重大危险源辨识研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006(S1):135-137.
[9]刘剑民,王继仁,何治良.基于多元混合模型的煤矿矿井突水水源分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(12):95-100.
[10]肖云,田昌贵,李元松,等.基于GM(1,1)模型的铜绿山矿井水害预测与防治[J].安全与环境工程,2013,20(1):115-120.
[11]曹庆奎,赵斐.基于模糊-支持向量机的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].煤炭学报,2011,36(12):633-637.
[12]董春游,孟婧.基于云模型和D-S理论的煤矿安全管理评价方法[J].黑龙江科技学院学报,2013,23(5):496-501.
[13]董春游,张斌斌.云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯共采综合评价[J].黑龙江科技学院学报,2015,25(4):450-456.
[14]韩晓刚,黄廷林,陈秀珍.改进的模糊综合评价法及在给水厂原水水质评价中的应用[J].环境科学学报,2013,(05):1513-1518.
[15]张秋文,章永志,钟鸣.基于云模型的水库诱发地震风险多级模糊综合评价[J].水利学报,2014(01):87-95.
[16]徐德宝,曹始友,徐孚效,等.基于突变理论的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].煤矿安全,2014(12):197-200.
[17]李建林,张洪云,王心义,等.脆弱性指数法在煤层底板突水预测中的应用与建议[J].煤炭学报,2014(04):725-730.
[18]宫凤强,鲁金涛.基于主成分分析与距离判别分析法的突水水源识别方法[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2014(02):236-242.
[2]范立民,马雄德.浅埋煤层矿井突水溃沙灾害研究进展[J].煤炭科学技术,2016(01):8-12.
[3]范立民,马雄德,蒋辉,等.西部生态脆弱矿区矿井突水溃沙危险性分区[J].煤炭学报,2016,(03):531-536.
[4]刘剑民,王继仁,何治良.煤矿矿井突水水源的多元矩阵模型分析[J].科技导报,2014(09):79-83.
[5]王长申,孙亚军,杭远.基于事故树分析的煤矿潜在突水危险评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009(02):298-305.
[6]潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬.基于改进模糊层次分析法的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].煤矿安全,2016(09):194-197.
[7]王震,朱术云,段宏飞,等.基于灰色系统关联分析的矿井突水水源判别[J].煤矿安全,2012(07):132-135.
[8]吴立荣,程卫民,鹿广利.基于模糊评判人工神经网络的重大危险源辨识研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006(S1):135-137.
[9]刘剑民,王继仁,何治良.基于多元混合模型的煤矿矿井突水水源分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(12):95-100.
[10]肖云,田昌贵,李元松,等.基于GM(1,1)模型的铜绿山矿井水害预测与防治[J].安全与环境工程,2013,20(1):115-120.
[11]曹庆奎,赵斐.基于模糊-支持向量机的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].煤炭学报,2011,36(12):633-637.
[12]董春游,孟婧.基于云模型和D-S理论的煤矿安全管理评价方法[J].黑龙江科技学院学报,2013,23(5):496-501.
[13]董春游,张斌斌.云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯共采综合评价[J].黑龙江科技学院学报,2015,25(4):450-456.
[14]韩晓刚,黄廷林,陈秀珍.改进的模糊综合评价法及在给水厂原水水质评价中的应用[J].环境科学学报,2013,(05):1513-1518.
[15]张秋文,章永志,钟鸣.基于云模型的水库诱发地震风险多级模糊综合评价[J].水利学报,2014(01):87-95.
[16]徐德宝,曹始友,徐孚效,等.基于突变理论的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].煤矿安全,2014(12):197-200.
[17]李建林,张洪云,王心义,等.脆弱性指数法在煤层底板突水预测中的应用与建议[J].煤炭学报,2014(04):725-730.
[18]宫凤强,鲁金涛.基于主成分分析与距离判别分析法的突水水源识别方法[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2014(02):236-242.