基于GIS及耦合协调原理的长输管道山洪泥石流风险性评价
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摘要
山洪泥石流是影响山区长输油气管道安全运营的主要地质灾害,开展长输油气管道山洪泥石流灾害风险评价有助于预防和减轻其所造成的损失。为此,以兰成渝长输油气管道广元段为例,基于耦合协调原理,将风险评价总系统分解为管体和自然环境2个子系统,前者包括埋深、夹角(管体与斜坡单元夹角)、壁厚、缺陷密度、位置(管体距斜坡单元距离)共5个指标,后者则包括坡向、坡度、高程、植被覆盖指数、年平均降水量、高差、地形剖面曲率、距断层距离、地质岩性等9个指标,利用熵权法确定了不同指标的权重,进而结合GIS技术构建系统耦合协调模型,确定了该区长输管道的风险等级。研究结果表明:①耦合协调度与风险度具有较好的一致性;②研究区南部区域管道的风险度和耦合度均偏高,该区的自然环境、地质构造和气候变化更易诱发山洪泥石流自然灾害;③管体子系统中的缺陷密度、自然环境子系统中的归一化植被指数(NDVI)分别占最大权重,广元段管道应加强管体损坏与植被变化监测。结论认为,该评价方法能迅速而准确地反映现场实际情况,可以较好地应用于管道风险评价。
Debris flows and mountain torrents are the main geologic disasters affecting the safe operation of long-distance oil and gas pipelines in mountainous areas. It is of great significance to carry out risk assessment on the disasters of debris flows and mountain torrents along long-distance oil and gas pipelines to prevent and alleviate the losses. In this paper, the Guangyuan section of the Lanzhou–Chengdu–Chongqing long-distance oil and gas pipeline was taken as the research object. Based on the coupling-coordination principle,an overall risk evaluation system was divided into two subsystems, i.e., a pipe subsystem and a natural environment subsystem. The pipe subsystem includes 5 indicators: depth, included angle(included angle between pipe and slope unit), wall thickness, defect density and position(distance between pipe and slope unit). The natural environment subsystem includes 9 indicators: slope direction, slope, elevation, normalized differential vegetation index(NDVI), annual average precipitation, height difference, topographic section curvature,distance between pipe and fault, and geological lithology. Then, the weight of each indicator was determined by means of entropy weight method. Finally, the coupling-coordination model for the system was established by using the GIS technology, and the risk level of the long-distance pipeline in this area was defined. And the following research results were obtained. First, the coupling coordination degree is better accordant with the risk degree. Second, the risk degree and coupling coordination degree of the pipeline in the southern part of the study area are higher, which indicates that the natural environment, geological structure and climate change in this area tend to induce natural disasters easily, e.g. mountain torrents and debris flows. Third, the weight of the defect density of pipe subsystem and that of the NDVI index of natural environment subsystem are the highest, so it is recommended to strengthen monitoring pipe damage and vegetation change in the Guangyuan pipeline section. In conclusion, this evaluation method can reflect the actual field situations rapidly and accurately and it is better applicable in pipeline risk evaluation.
Debris flows and mountain torrents are the main geologic disasters affecting the safe operation of long-distance oil and gas pipelines in mountainous areas. It is of great significance to carry out risk assessment on the disasters of debris flows and mountain torrents along long-distance oil and gas pipelines to prevent and alleviate the losses. In this paper, the Guangyuan section of the Lanzhou–Chengdu–Chongqing long-distance oil and gas pipeline was taken as the research object. Based on the coupling-coordination principle,an overall risk evaluation system was divided into two subsystems, i.e., a pipe subsystem and a natural environment subsystem. The pipe subsystem includes 5 indicators: depth, included angle(included angle between pipe and slope unit), wall thickness, defect density and position(distance between pipe and slope unit). The natural environment subsystem includes 9 indicators: slope direction, slope, elevation, normalized differential vegetation index(NDVI), annual average precipitation, height difference, topographic section curvature,distance between pipe and fault, and geological lithology. Then, the weight of each indicator was determined by means of entropy weight method. Finally, the coupling-coordination model for the system was established by using the GIS technology, and the risk level of the long-distance pipeline in this area was defined. And the following research results were obtained. First, the coupling coordination degree is better accordant with the risk degree. Second, the risk degree and coupling coordination degree of the pipeline in the southern part of the study area are higher, which indicates that the natural environment, geological structure and climate change in this area tend to induce natural disasters easily, e.g. mountain torrents and debris flows. Third, the weight of the defect density of pipe subsystem and that of the NDVI index of natural environment subsystem are the highest, so it is recommended to strengthen monitoring pipe damage and vegetation change in the Guangyuan pipeline section. In conclusion, this evaluation method can reflect the actual field situations rapidly and accurately and it is better applicable in pipeline risk evaluation.
引文
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[2]姚安林,周立国,汪龙,王棠昱,李又绿.天然气长输管道地区等级升级管理与风险评价[J].天然气工业,2017,37(1):124-130.Yao Anlin,Zhou Liguo,Wang Long,Wang Tangyu&Li Youlü.Management of and risk evaluation on long-distance gas pipelines related to regional level upgrading[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(1):124-130.
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[6]王金东.采空沉陷区天然气管道的危险性评价[D].西安:西安科技大学,2013.Wang Jindong.The risk evaluation of the natural gas pipeline pass through gob subsidence[D].Xi'an:Xi'an University of Science and Technology,2013.
[7]吕擎峰,王庆栋,王生新,赵本海.基于GIS和层次分析法的冲积扇油气管道段坡面侵蚀性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2018,29(1):119-124.LüQingfeng,Wang Qingdong,Wang Shengxin&Zhao Benhai.GIS and AHP based slope erosion analysis for the oil and gas pipeline across alluvial fan[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2018,29(1):119-124.
[8]章清,王生新,汪鹏飞,徐震.基于熵权可拓理论的管道坡面水毁危险性评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(12):110-115.Zhang Qing,Wang Shengxin,Wang Pengfei&Xu Zhen.Assessment of risk of flood damage at slope of pipeline based on combination of entropy method and extension theory[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(12):110-115.
[9]孙志忠,王生新,张满银,李军鹏.基于可拓理论的管道河沟道水毁危险性评价[J].科学技术与工程,2015,15(29):204-210.Sun Zhizhong,Wang Shengxin,Zhang Manyin&Li Junpeng.Waterlogging risk assessment of pipeline based on extenics theory[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2015,15(29):204-210.
[10]刘俊杰,李志民,卢志海,陈全知.油气管道风险评价在安全评价中的应用[J].油气田地面工程,2003,22(1):71-76.Liu Junjie,Li Zhimin,Lu Zhihai&Chen Quanzhi.Utilization of oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation in safety evaluation[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2003,22(1):71-76.
[11]侯昶魁.长输管道建设项目施工阶段风险管理研究[D].天津:天津大学,2008.Hou Changkui.Research on risk management of long distance pipeline in construction phase[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2008.
[12]韩丽艳.西部输气管道风险评价技术研究[D].大庆:东北石油大学,2014.Han Liyan.Gas pipeline risk assessment technology research in west[D].Daqing:Northeast Petroleum University,2014.
[13]黄维和.油气管道风险管理技术的研究及应用[J].油气储运,2001,20(10):1-10.Huang Weihe.The application actualities of foreign pipeline risk management and the future work for China to do[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2001,20(10):1-10.
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[19]陈情来.模糊综合评判地质灾害的危险性[J].油气储运,2000,19(5):38-43.Chen Qinglai.Fuzzy and synthetic judgement on hazards of geological disaster[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2000,19(5):38-43.
[20]黄小美,李百战,彭世尼,杨茂华.基于事件树的天然气管道风险定量分析[J].煤气与热力,2009,29(4):42-46.Huang Xiaomei,Li Baizhan,Peng Shini&Yang Maohua.Quantitative risk analysis of natural gas pipeline based on event tree[J].Gas&Heat,2009,29(4):42-46.
[21]赵昕,梁刈,李莉.风暴潮灾害损失和经济增长的耦合关系研究[J].中国渔业经济,2010,29(5):126-136.Zhao Xin,Liang Yi&Li Li.Study on the coupling relation between losses of storm surge disaster and the economic development[J].Chinese Fisheries Economics,2010,29(5):126-136.
[22]薛晔,刘耀龙,张涛涛.耦合灾害风险的形成机理研究[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(2):44-50.Xue Ye,Liu Yaolong&Zhang Taotao.Research on formation mechanism of coupled disaster risk[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,22(2):44-50.
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