三峡水库蓄水前后重庆气候变化分析
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摘要
利用三峡库区重庆沙坪坝站点1987～2017年逐日平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、平均相对湿度和平均能见度的观测资料,分析站点各气象要素的年际变化和蓄水前后的异同。结果表明:年平均温度和年平均最高温度均有增高的趋势,年平均最低温度有微弱的减小趋势;年平均相对湿度呈较大幅度的减小趋势,年平均能见度呈增加趋势。其中,最高温度、相对湿度和能见度通过α=0.01显著性检验。根据突变检验,平均温度、最高温度、最低温度和能见度的突变点分别为2009,2001,2012和2010年。蓄水后多年季节平均最高温度四季均升温,多年季节平均温度和多年季节平均最低温度均冬季降温,春夏秋季增温。蓄水后的年平均相对湿度的年际变化增大,蓄水后的多年季节和月平均相对湿度整体下降。蓄水前后多年季节平均能见度上升,多年月平均能见度除6月降低0.212 km外,其他11个月均上升。蓄水前后5个要素的频率有效百分比分布与蓄水前后的年及四季的特征相一致。
Based on the daily average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average relative humidity and average visibility data of Shapingba station in Chongqing from 1987 to 2017, the inter-annual variations of meteorological elements and the similarities and differences before and after impoundment are analyzed. The results showed that the average temperature and the maximum temperature have an increasing trend, and the minimum temperature had a weak decreasing trend from 1987 to 2017. Meanwhile, the average relative humidity decreased significantly, and the average visibility increased. Among them, the maximum temperature, relative humidity and visibility are tested by α=0.01. According to the mutation test, the mutation points of mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and visibility were 2009, 2001, 2012 and 2010, respectively. The multi-year seasonal average maximum temperature increases in all seasons, the multi-year seasonal average temperature and the multi-year seasonal mean minimum temperature decreases in winter, and increases in spring, summer and autumn. The inter-annual variation of annual average relative humidity increases after water storage, and the multi-year seasonal and monthly mean relative humidity decreases after water storage. The multi-year seasonal average visibility increased before and after water impoundment. The monthly average visibility decreases by 0.212 km in June, and the other 11 months increases. The frequency cumulative percentage distribution of five meteorological elements is consistent with the annual and seasonal characteristics before and after water storage.
Based on the daily average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average relative humidity and average visibility data of Shapingba station in Chongqing from 1987 to 2017, the inter-annual variations of meteorological elements and the similarities and differences before and after impoundment are analyzed. The results showed that the average temperature and the maximum temperature have an increasing trend, and the minimum temperature had a weak decreasing trend from 1987 to 2017. Meanwhile, the average relative humidity decreased significantly, and the average visibility increased. Among them, the maximum temperature, relative humidity and visibility are tested by α=0.01. According to the mutation test, the mutation points of mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and visibility were 2009, 2001, 2012 and 2010, respectively. The multi-year seasonal average maximum temperature increases in all seasons, the multi-year seasonal average temperature and the multi-year seasonal mean minimum temperature decreases in winter, and increases in spring, summer and autumn. The inter-annual variation of annual average relative humidity increases after water storage, and the multi-year seasonal and monthly mean relative humidity decreases after water storage. The multi-year seasonal average visibility increased before and after water impoundment. The monthly average visibility decreases by 0.212 km in June, and the other 11 months increases. The frequency cumulative percentage distribution of five meteorological elements is consistent with the annual and seasonal characteristics before and after water storage.
引文
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[2] 李艳,耿丹,董新宁,等.1961-2007年重庆风速的气候变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(3):336-340.LI Y,GENG D,DONG X N,et al.Climate change of wind speed in Chongqing from 1961 to 2007[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2010,33(3):336-340.
[3] 张天宇,范莉,孙杰,等.1961～2008年三峡库区气候变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(S1):52-61.ZHANG T Y,FAN L,SUN J,et al.Characteristics of climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir area during 1986～2008[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,9(S1):52-61.
[4] 叶殿秀,邹旭凯,张强,等.长江三峡库区高温天气的气候特征分析[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(2):200-204.YE D X,ZOU X K,ZHANG Q,et al.An analysis of climatic characteristics of high temperature in the Three Gorges Area[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2008,24(2):200-204.
[5] 邹旭凯,张强,叶殿秀.长江三峡库区连阴雨的气候特征分析[J].灾害学,2005,20(1):84-90.ZOU X K,ZHANG Q,YE D X.An analysis on the climatic characteristics of consecutive rainfall in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2005,20(1):84-90.
[6] 张天宇,陈正洪,孙佳,等.三峡库区近百年来气温变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(S2):138-144.ZHANG T Y,CHEN Z H,SUN J,et al.Variation characteristics of temperature in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area during the past nearly 100 years[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2012,21(S2):138-144.
[7] 周浩,杨宝钢,程炳岩.重庆近46年气候变化特征分析[J]中国农业气象,2008,29(1):23-27.ZHOU H,YANG B G,CHENG B Y.Analysis of characteristics of climate change over last 46 years in Chongqing[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(1):23-27.
[8] 叶殿秀,张强,邹旭恺,等.近几十年三峡库区主要气象灾害变化趋势[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(3):296-300.YE D X,ZHANG Q,ZOU X K,et al.Changing trends of major meteorological disasters in recent decades over Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2009,18(3):296-300.
[9] 林德生,吴昌广,周志翔,等.三峡库区近50年来的气温变化趋势[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(9):1037-1043.LIN D S,WU C G,ZHOU Z X,et al.Trends of air temperature variations in Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1960 to 2006[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(9):1037-1043.
[10] 过寒超,秦琳琳,牛凤霞,等.宜昌市近59年来的气候变化趋势分析[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2011,33(5):26-30.GUO H C,QIN L L,NIU F X,et al.Analysis of climate tendency in Yichang City in recent 59 years[J].Journal of China Three Gorges Univ.(Natural Sciences),2011,33(5):26-30.
[11] 张彪,刘德富,宋林旭,等.三峡库区香溪河流域近20年气候趋势分析[J]三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2013,35(1):12-16.ZHANG B,LIU D F,SONG L X,et al.Climate change trend analysis of Xiangxi River Basin of Three Gorges Reservoir Region in recent 20 years[J].Journal of China Three Gorges Univ.(Natural Sciences),2013,35(1):12-16.
[12] 陈正洪.武汉、宜昌20世纪平均气温突变的诊断的分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2000,9(1):56-62.CHEN Z H.The diagnosis and analysis of abrupt changes in the mean temperature during the 20th century in Wuhan and Yichang[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2000,9(1):56-62.
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[14] LU M Q,JIANG Y,CHEN X L,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation under a changing climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA)[J].Atmosphere,2018,9(1):23.
[15] 韩余,刘德,王欢,等.重庆雾气候特征及天气成因分析[J]气候与环境学报,2013,29(6):116-122.HAN Y,LIU D,WANG H,et al.Climatic characteristics of fog and its forming reason in Chongqing[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2013,29(6):116-122.
[16] 孙冷,黄朝迎.三峡库区秋雨的气候演变规律[J].地理学报,2000,55(S1):20-25.SUN L,HUANG C Y.The evolutionary law of autumn rain in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2000,55(S1):20-25.
[17] SONG Z,LIANG S L,FENG L,et al.Temperature changes in Three Gorges Reservoir Area and linkage with Three Gorges Project[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2017,122(9):4866-4879.
[18] 韩庆忠,向锋,马力,等.三峡库首典型区2001-2010年局地气象因子变化趋势分析[J].土壤,2012,44(6):1029-1034.HAN Q Z,XIANG F,MA L,et al.Variations of local meteorological factors from 2001 to 2010 in typical area of head part of Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Soils,2012,44(6):1029-1034.
[19] 何毅,王飞,穆兴民.三峡库区蓄水前后区域气象要素变化研究[J].人民黄河,2012,34(10):55-58.HE Y,WANG F,MU X M.Research on variation of the meteorological elements before and after impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Yellow River,2012,34(10):55-58.
[20] 陈鲜艳,宋连春,郭占峰,等.长江三峡库区和上游气候变化特点及其影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(11):1466-1471.CHEN X Y,SONG L C,GUO Z F,et al.Climate change over the Gorge Reservoir and Upper Yangtze with its possible effect[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(11):1466-14.