中国民用天然气价格规制的公共福利效应与阶梯定价优化情景分析
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摘要
结合当前天然气市场化改革背景,运用动态面板模型,分析过去十余年中国天然气市场价格规制对公共福利的影响,并对当前居民用气阶梯定价下的不同情景进行模拟,对比不同定价政策下公共福利的变化。得出以下主要结论:价格规制对公共福利指标并没有显示一致的正向作用,政府实施的天然气市场低气价政策没有显著提高居民用户的公共福利水平;城市化、天然气管网的建设有助于提升居民公共福利水平;当前居民用气阶梯定价方式一定程度上减少了居民用户天然气的浪费,但相比于国家发改委制定的阶梯定价方案,存在更兼顾公共福利与市场效率的阶梯定价结构。
Combined with the current natural gas market reform background,this paper uses the dynamic panel model to analyze the impact of China's natural gas market price regulation on public welfare over the past ten years,and compared different pricing policies and changes in public welfare by analyzing the different scenarios under the current residential gas ladder pricing.The main conclusions are as follows:Price regulation does not show a consistent positive effect on public welfare indicators.The government's natural gas market low gas price policy has not significantly improved the public welfare level of residents.The construction of urbanization and natural gas pipeline networks help to improve the public welfare level of residents.The current residential gas pricing method has reduced the waste of natural gas for residents.However,compared with the ladder pricing plan formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission,there is still room to propose a ladder pricing structure that takes into account public welfare and market efficiency.
Combined with the current natural gas market reform background,this paper uses the dynamic panel model to analyze the impact of China's natural gas market price regulation on public welfare over the past ten years,and compared different pricing policies and changes in public welfare by analyzing the different scenarios under the current residential gas ladder pricing.The main conclusions are as follows:Price regulation does not show a consistent positive effect on public welfare indicators.The government's natural gas market low gas price policy has not significantly improved the public welfare level of residents.The construction of urbanization and natural gas pipeline networks help to improve the public welfare level of residents.The current residential gas pricing method has reduced the waste of natural gas for residents.However,compared with the ladder pricing plan formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission,there is still room to propose a ladder pricing structure that takes into account public welfare and market efficiency.
引文
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[2]董秀成,李佳蔓.我国天然气“气荒”成因及对策研究[J].价格理论与实践,2018(2).
[3]刘自敏,杨丹,冯永晟.递增阶梯定价政策评价与优化设计——基于充分统计量方法[J].经济研究,2017(3).
[4]Vogelsang,I.,J.Finsinger.A regulatory adjustment process for optimal pricing by multiproduct monopoly firms[J].Bell Journal of Economics,2000(1).
[5]Growitsch,C.,M.Stronzik.Ownership unbundling of gas transmission networks—empirical evidence[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,2014(2).
[6]Ramírez,J.C.,J.Rosellón.Pricing natural gas distribution in Mexico[J].Energy Economics,2002(3).
[7]Broadman,H.G.,W.D.Montgomery,M.Russell.Field price deregulation and the carrier status of natural gas pipelines[J].The Energy Journal,1985(2).
[8]Gorak,T.C.,D.J.Ray.Efficiency and equity in transition to a new natural gas market[J].Land Economics,1995(3).
[9]聂光华.基于Stackelberg博弈的天然气定价机制研究[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2013(6).
[10]谭学燕.我国天然气定价机制设计[J].中国软科学,2008(10).
[11]赵连增.如何破解中国天然气价格改革困局——天然气价格改革思考之二[J].国际石油经济,2011(3).
[12]汪锋,刘辛.中国天然气价格形成机制改革的经济分析——从“成本加成”定价法到“市场净回值”定价法[J].天然气工业,2014(9).
[13]刘毅军.中国天然气价格形成机制演变与趋势[J].天然气工业,2015(4).
[14]Copenhagen Economics.Market Opening in Network Industries:Part II:Sectoral Analyses[R].Copenhagen,2005.
[15]董秀成,周仲兵,李君臣,等.基于库诺特模型的天然气管道一体化研究[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2010(6).
[16]Arano,K.G.,B.F.Blair.An ex-post welfare analysis of natural gas regulation in the industrial sector[J].Energy Economics,2008(3).
[17]Hawdon,D.,N.Stevens.Regulatory reform of the UK gas market:The case of the storage auction[J].Fiscal Studies,2001(2).
[18]Cetin,T.,F.Oguz.The politics of regulation in the Turkish electricity market[J].Energy Policy,2007(3).
[19]吕淼.对中国实施居民生活用气阶梯价格的思考[J].国际石油经济,2014(6).
[20]张昕竹.阶梯定价、实时定价及其潜在影响[J].改革,2011(3).
[21]Rogers,P.,R.D.Silva,R.Bhatia.Water is an economic goof:How to use prices to promote equity,efficiency,and sustainability[J].Water Policy,2002(1).
[22]朱柯丁,宋艺航,谭忠富,等.居民生活阶梯电价设计优化模型[J].华东电力,2011(6).
[23]李媛,罗琴,宋依群,等.基于需求响应的居民分时阶梯电价档位制定方法研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012(18).
[24]张昕竹,田露露.阶梯电价实施及结构设计——基于跨国数据的经验分析[J].财经问题研究,2014(7).
[25]Arellano,M.,S.Bond.Some tests of specification for panel data:Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations[J].Review of Economic Studies,1991(2).
[26]Brau,R.,R.Doronzo,C.V.Fiorio,et al.EU gas industry reforms and consumers’prices[J].The Energy Journal,2010(4).
[27]唐要家.电价管制刚性的政治经济学逻辑[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2014(4).
[28]国家能源局石油天然气司.中国天然气发展报告[R].北京:石油工业出版社,2017.
[29]郭蕾,肖有智.政府规制改革是否增进了社会公共福利——来自中国省际城市水务产业动态面板数据的经验证据[J].管理世界,2016(8).
[30]苏鹏,张希栋,赫永达.天然气价格规制的经济效应分析[J].经济问题,2015(11).
[31]张希栋,娄峰,张晓.中国天然气价格管制的碳排放及经济影响——基于非完全竞争CGE模型的模拟研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(7).
[32]吴昊,曹澍.政府管制、过度投资与企业绩效关系的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2009(9).
[33]王俊豪.A-J效应与自然垄断产业的价格管制模型[J].中国工业经济,2001(10).
[34]肖兴志,韩超.规制改革是否促进了中国城市水务产业发展?——基于中国省际面板数据的分析[J].管理世界,2011(2).
[35]Cambini,C.,L.Rondi.Incentive regulation and investment:Evidence from European energy utilities[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,2010(1).
[36]张梁梁,杨俊.社会资本、政府治理与经济增长[J].产业经济研究,2018(2).
[37]Lin,B.Q.,Z.J.Jiang.Designation and influence of household increasing block electricity tariffs in China[J].Energy Policy,2012,42.
[38]Hung,M.F.,T.H.Huang.Dynamic demand for residential electricity in Taiwan under seasonality and increasing-block pricing[J].Energy Economics,2015,48.
[39]龚承柱.天然气终端市场定价模型与政策模拟研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学博士学位论文,2016.