中国收缩城市及其发展的负外部性
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摘要
以中国地级市为研究对象,选取2003年和2014年2个时点,通过分析各地级市市辖区、非市辖区的人口变化及二者相对变化情况判断收缩及潜在收缩城市;基于城市发展的负外部性内涵,构建涵盖房地产、环境、交通、教育、医疗及就业等方面指标的评价体系,运用主成分分析法测度收缩及潜在收缩城市发展的负外部性,并分析其变化方向。研究结果表明:(1)中国的城市发展仍然以增长为主,收缩城市及潜在收缩城市比例并不高,收缩城市主要分布于东北三省及西北地区,潜在收缩城市则集中分布于河南、湖南等中部人口大省及广西、贵州等省、自治区;(2)收缩城市发展过程中其负外部性显著改善,尤其是处于稳定收缩阶段的绝对收缩城市最为明显,辐射式收缩城市次之,而处于收缩初始阶段的郊区化收缩城市则表现出两极分化特征;(3)大部分潜在收缩城市其负外部性有不同程度的加剧,且负外部性加剧的城市主要以湖南、河南的潜在收缩城市为主。
Along with the aging and migration of population, deindustrialization and economic crises, the beginning of 21th Century there has witnessed a phenomenon of urban shrinkage across China, which is quite common for industrial and resource-based cities. The shrinkage caused a negative impact on social, environment and economic aspects so that it has gradually been a concerned topic for the future development of Chinese cities. As one of the major challenges that China are faced during the process of new-type urbanization, rather than highlighting urban growth, the smart urban shrinkage could be a possible way for shrinking cities to step into a sustainable way. The purpose of this article is to measure the urban negative externality and evaluate the impact of shrinkage on the change of such externality. With the usage of population data of all prefecture-level cities(Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan are excluded) in 2003 and 2014, this article identified the types of urban shrinkage through analyzing the population changes of municipal district and non-municipal district separately,as well as their difference during this period. Furthermore, a comprehensive index system has been built up to measure the negative externality of all prefecture-level cities. The index system includes aspects of estate price,urban environment, transportation, education, health and employment. By applying the method of principal component analysis(PCA), a synthesis score was calculated, followed by revealing the change direction of urban externality for each type of shrinking and potential shrinking cities. The results of the study are listed as follows: 1) urban development across China is still centered on urban growth, and the shrinkage and potential shrinkage are not very popular. Shrinking cities are mainly distributed in Northeast China(i.e. Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning) and part of Northwest China(i. e. the south of Gansu). However, potential shrinking cities tend to gather in Central China, including Henan and Hunan(two populous provinces), as well as in some inland provinces(i.e. Guangxi and Guizhou); 2) the urban negative externality of shrinking cities will exacerbate as their population increase, and the type of sheer shrinking cities is most remarkably reflected, followed by the type of dispersive ones. But in terms of suburbanized shrinking cities, the change of urban negative externality shows a bi-directional characteristic, namely the externality of part of these cities increase while others decrease equally in number; 3) an exacerbated urban negative externality with different degrees occurs on most potential shrinking cities, and they are mainly located in Hunan and Henan, two provinces in Central China. As for the urban shrinkage, which is not widespread across the whole country, the government should pay much attention on shrinking and potential shrinking cities. Implementing efficient and appropriate policies(i. e. economic restructuring, industrial upgrading, innovation encouragement) is imperative to make the shrinkage to be smart and maximize urban utility during the shrinking process.
Along with the aging and migration of population, deindustrialization and economic crises, the beginning of 21th Century there has witnessed a phenomenon of urban shrinkage across China, which is quite common for industrial and resource-based cities. The shrinkage caused a negative impact on social, environment and economic aspects so that it has gradually been a concerned topic for the future development of Chinese cities. As one of the major challenges that China are faced during the process of new-type urbanization, rather than highlighting urban growth, the smart urban shrinkage could be a possible way for shrinking cities to step into a sustainable way. The purpose of this article is to measure the urban negative externality and evaluate the impact of shrinkage on the change of such externality. With the usage of population data of all prefecture-level cities(Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan are excluded) in 2003 and 2014, this article identified the types of urban shrinkage through analyzing the population changes of municipal district and non-municipal district separately,as well as their difference during this period. Furthermore, a comprehensive index system has been built up to measure the negative externality of all prefecture-level cities. The index system includes aspects of estate price,urban environment, transportation, education, health and employment. By applying the method of principal component analysis(PCA), a synthesis score was calculated, followed by revealing the change direction of urban externality for each type of shrinking and potential shrinking cities. The results of the study are listed as follows: 1) urban development across China is still centered on urban growth, and the shrinkage and potential shrinkage are not very popular. Shrinking cities are mainly distributed in Northeast China(i.e. Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning) and part of Northwest China(i. e. the south of Gansu). However, potential shrinking cities tend to gather in Central China, including Henan and Hunan(two populous provinces), as well as in some inland provinces(i.e. Guangxi and Guizhou); 2) the urban negative externality of shrinking cities will exacerbate as their population increase, and the type of sheer shrinking cities is most remarkably reflected, followed by the type of dispersive ones. But in terms of suburbanized shrinking cities, the change of urban negative externality shows a bi-directional characteristic, namely the externality of part of these cities increase while others decrease equally in number; 3) an exacerbated urban negative externality with different degrees occurs on most potential shrinking cities, and they are mainly located in Hunan and Henan, two provinces in Central China. As for the urban shrinkage, which is not widespread across the whole country, the government should pay much attention on shrinking and potential shrinking cities. Implementing efficient and appropriate policies(i. e. economic restructuring, industrial upgrading, innovation encouragement) is imperative to make the shrinkage to be smart and maximize urban utility during the shrinking process.
引文
[1]阿瑟·奥沙利文.城市经济学(第八版)[M].周京奎译.北京:北京大学出版社,2015.[O`Sullivan A. Urban Economics(Eight Edition). Translated by Zhou Jingkui. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2015.]
[2]高舒琦.收缩城市的现象、概念与研究溯源[J].国际城市规划,2017, 32(3):50-58.[Gao Shuqi. Tracing the phenomenon, concept and research of shrinking cities. Urban Planning International,2017,32(3):50-58.]
[3]丁成日.世界(特)大城市发展——规律、挑战、增长控制政策及其评价[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2015.[Ding Chengri. Growth of World Megacities:Trend, challenge, growth policy and effectiveness. Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2015.]
[4]龙瀛,吴康,王江浩.中国收缩城市及其研究框架[J].现代城市研究,2015,30(9):14-19.[Long Ying, Wu Kang, Wang Jianghao.Chinese shrinking cities and the research framework. Modern Urban Research,2015,30(9):14-19.]
[5]吴康,龙瀛,杨宇.京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩:格局、类型与影响因素识别[J].现代城市研究,2015,30(9):26-35.[Wu Kang, Long Ying, Yang Yu. Urban shrinkage in the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta:Pattern, trajectory and factors. Modern Urban Research,2015,30(9):26-35.]
[6]李郇,杜志威,李先锋.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制[J].现代城市研究,2015,30(9):36-43.[Li Xun, Du Zhiwei, Li Xianfeng. The spatial distribution and mechanism of city shrinkage in the Pearl River Delta. Modern Urban Research,2015,30(9):36-43.]
[7]林雄斌,杨家文,张衔春,等.我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析——基于人口与经济变化的视角[J].人文地理,2017,32(1):82-89.[Lin Xiongbin, Yang Jiawen, Zhang Xianchun et al. Measuring shrinking cities and influential factors in urban China:perspective of population and economy. Human Geography,2017,32(1):82-89.]
[8]周恺,钱芳芳,严妍.湖南省多地理尺度下的人口“收缩地图”[J].地理研究,2017,36(2):267-280.[Zhou Kai, Qian Fangfang,Yan Yan. A multi-scaled analysis of the“Shrinking Map”of the population in Hunan province. Geographical Research,2017,36(2):267-280.]
[9]李翔,陈可石,郭新.增长主义价值观转变背景下的收缩城市复兴策略比较——以美国与德国为例[J].国际城市规划,2015,30(2):81-86.[Li Xiang, Chen Keshi, Guo Xin. A comparison of the strategies to cope with shrinkage in the USA and Germany:Under the background of transformation of growth orientation values. Urban Planning International,2015,30(2):81-86.]
[10]张京祥,赵丹,陈浩.增长主义的终结与中国城市规划的转型[J].城市规划,2013,37(1):45-50.[Zhang Jingxiang, Zhao Dan,Chen Hao. Termination of growth supremacism and transformation of China's urban planning. City Planning Review, 2013, 37(1):45-50.]
[11] Rhodes J, Russo J. Shrinking‘smart’? Urban redevelopment and shrinkage in Youngstown, Ohio[J].Urban Geography,2013,34(3):305-326.
[12]周恺,钱芳芳.收缩城市:逆增长情境下的城市发展路径研究进展[J].现代城市研究,2015,30(9):2-13.[Zhou Kai, Qian Fangfang. Shrinking city:On searching for urban development in non-growing scenarios. Modern Urban Research, 2015, 30(9):2-13.]
[13]龙瀛.中国人口密度的时空演变与城镇化空间格局初探:2000-2010[C]//2014中国城市规划年, 2014.[Long Ying. The spatial and temporal evolution of China's population density and the preliminary exploration of the spatial pattern of urbanization:2000-2010. Annual National Planning Conference,2014.]
[14] Hollander J B. Can a city successfully shrink? Evidence from survey data on neighborhood quality[J]. Urban Affairs Review,2011,47(1):129-141.
[15] Albecker M F, Fol S. The restructuring of declining suburbs in the Paris region[M]//Pallagst K et al. Shrinking cities:International perspectives and policy implication. London:Routledge,2014:78-98.
[16] Pallagst K. The Interdependence of shrinking and growing:Processes of urban transformation in the US in the Rust Belt and beyond[M]//Pallagst K et al. Shrinking cities:International perspectives and policy implications. London:Routledge, 2014:59-93.
[17] Bontje M. Facing the challenge of shrinking cities in East Germany:The case of Leipzig[J].GeoJournal,2005,61(1):13-21.
[18]刘合林.收缩城市量化计算方法进展[J].现代城市研究,2016,31(2):17-22.[Liu Helin. Research on quantitative calculation method of shrinking city. Modern Urban Research, 2016, 31(2):17-22.]
[19] Tan J, Zhang P, Lo K et al. The urban transition performance of resource-based cities in northeast China[J].Sustainability,2016,8(10):1-17.
[20] Long Y, Wu K. Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China[J].Environment and Planning A, 2016,48(2):220-222.
[21] Langner M, Endlicher W. Shrinking cities:Effects on urban ecology and challenges for urban development[M].Pieterlen:Peter Lang,2007.
[22] Hollander J B. Polluted and dangerous:America’s worst abandoned properties and what can be done about them[M].Burlington:University of Vermont Press,2009.
[23]高舒琦.收缩城市研究综述[J].城市规划学刊,2015,38(4):43-49.[Gao Shuqi. A review of research on shrinking cities. Urban Planning Forum,2015,38(4):43-49.]
[24] Pallagst K. Shrinking cities planning challenges from an international perspective[M]//Rugare S. Cities growing smaller.Cleveland:Kent State’s Cleveland Urban Design Collaborative,2008:6-16.
[25]于婷婷,宋玉祥,浩飞龙,等.东北三省人口分布空间格局演化及其驱动因素研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(5):709-717.[Yu Tingting, Song Yuxiang, Hao Feilong et al. Space pattern evolution of population distribution and the driving factors in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(5):709-717.]
[26] Hoekveld J J. Understanding spatial differentiation in urban decline levels[J].European Planning Studies,2014,22(2):362-382.
[27] Delken E. Happiness in shrinking cities in Germany:A research note[J].Journal of Happiness Studies,2008,9(9):213-218.
[28] Hasse D, Haase A, Rink D. Conceptualizing the nexus between urban shrinkage and ecosystem services[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,132:159-169.
[29] Fritsche M, Langer M, Kohler H et al. Shrinking cities-A new challenge for research in urban ecology[Z].Working Paper,2007.
[30] Frazier A E, Bagchi-Sen S. Developing open space networks in shrinking cities[J].Applied Geography,2015,59(1):1-9.
[31]国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004-2015.[The National Bureau of Statistics Urban Social and Economic Investigation Department. China city statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2004-2015.]
[32]国家统计局国民经济综合统计司.中国区域经济统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004-2015.[The National Bureau of Statistics National Economy Comprehensive Statistics Department. China statistical yearbook for regional economy. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2004-2015.]
[33]自然资源部.中国国土资源统计年鉴[M].北京:地质出版社,2004-2015.[Ministry of Natural Resources. China land and resources statistical yearbook 2004-2015. Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2004-2015.]
[34]李恩平.城市化时间路径曲线的推导与应用——误解阐释与研究拓展[J].人口研究,2014,38(3):28-40.[Li Enping. Derivation and application of the urbanization curve:Interpretation of misunderstanding and implications for further research. Population Research,2014,38(3):28-40.]
[35]黄鹤.精明收缩:应对城市衰退的规划策略及其在美国的实践[J].城市与区域规划研究, 2011(3):157-168.[Huang He. Smart decline planning measures for urban decay and its practice in US. Journal of Urban and Regional Planning,2011(3):157-168.]
[2]高舒琦.收缩城市的现象、概念与研究溯源[J].国际城市规划,2017, 32(3):50-58.[Gao Shuqi. Tracing the phenomenon, concept and research of shrinking cities. Urban Planning International,2017,32(3):50-58.]
[3]丁成日.世界(特)大城市发展——规律、挑战、增长控制政策及其评价[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2015.[Ding Chengri. Growth of World Megacities:Trend, challenge, growth policy and effectiveness. Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2015.]
[4]龙瀛,吴康,王江浩.中国收缩城市及其研究框架[J].现代城市研究,2015,30(9):14-19.[Long Ying, Wu Kang, Wang Jianghao.Chinese shrinking cities and the research framework. Modern Urban Research,2015,30(9):14-19.]
[5]吴康,龙瀛,杨宇.京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩:格局、类型与影响因素识别[J].现代城市研究,2015,30(9):26-35.[Wu Kang, Long Ying, Yang Yu. Urban shrinkage in the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta:Pattern, trajectory and factors. Modern Urban Research,2015,30(9):26-35.]
[6]李郇,杜志威,李先锋.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制[J].现代城市研究,2015,30(9):36-43.[Li Xun, Du Zhiwei, Li Xianfeng. The spatial distribution and mechanism of city shrinkage in the Pearl River Delta. Modern Urban Research,2015,30(9):36-43.]
[7]林雄斌,杨家文,张衔春,等.我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析——基于人口与经济变化的视角[J].人文地理,2017,32(1):82-89.[Lin Xiongbin, Yang Jiawen, Zhang Xianchun et al. Measuring shrinking cities and influential factors in urban China:perspective of population and economy. Human Geography,2017,32(1):82-89.]
[8]周恺,钱芳芳,严妍.湖南省多地理尺度下的人口“收缩地图”[J].地理研究,2017,36(2):267-280.[Zhou Kai, Qian Fangfang,Yan Yan. A multi-scaled analysis of the“Shrinking Map”of the population in Hunan province. Geographical Research,2017,36(2):267-280.]
[9]李翔,陈可石,郭新.增长主义价值观转变背景下的收缩城市复兴策略比较——以美国与德国为例[J].国际城市规划,2015,30(2):81-86.[Li Xiang, Chen Keshi, Guo Xin. A comparison of the strategies to cope with shrinkage in the USA and Germany:Under the background of transformation of growth orientation values. Urban Planning International,2015,30(2):81-86.]
[10]张京祥,赵丹,陈浩.增长主义的终结与中国城市规划的转型[J].城市规划,2013,37(1):45-50.[Zhang Jingxiang, Zhao Dan,Chen Hao. Termination of growth supremacism and transformation of China's urban planning. City Planning Review, 2013, 37(1):45-50.]
[11] Rhodes J, Russo J. Shrinking‘smart’? Urban redevelopment and shrinkage in Youngstown, Ohio[J].Urban Geography,2013,34(3):305-326.
[12]周恺,钱芳芳.收缩城市:逆增长情境下的城市发展路径研究进展[J].现代城市研究,2015,30(9):2-13.[Zhou Kai, Qian Fangfang. Shrinking city:On searching for urban development in non-growing scenarios. Modern Urban Research, 2015, 30(9):2-13.]
[13]龙瀛.中国人口密度的时空演变与城镇化空间格局初探:2000-2010[C]//2014中国城市规划年, 2014.[Long Ying. The spatial and temporal evolution of China's population density and the preliminary exploration of the spatial pattern of urbanization:2000-2010. Annual National Planning Conference,2014.]
[14] Hollander J B. Can a city successfully shrink? Evidence from survey data on neighborhood quality[J]. Urban Affairs Review,2011,47(1):129-141.
[15] Albecker M F, Fol S. The restructuring of declining suburbs in the Paris region[M]//Pallagst K et al. Shrinking cities:International perspectives and policy implication. London:Routledge,2014:78-98.
[16] Pallagst K. The Interdependence of shrinking and growing:Processes of urban transformation in the US in the Rust Belt and beyond[M]//Pallagst K et al. Shrinking cities:International perspectives and policy implications. London:Routledge, 2014:59-93.
[17] Bontje M. Facing the challenge of shrinking cities in East Germany:The case of Leipzig[J].GeoJournal,2005,61(1):13-21.
[18]刘合林.收缩城市量化计算方法进展[J].现代城市研究,2016,31(2):17-22.[Liu Helin. Research on quantitative calculation method of shrinking city. Modern Urban Research, 2016, 31(2):17-22.]
[19] Tan J, Zhang P, Lo K et al. The urban transition performance of resource-based cities in northeast China[J].Sustainability,2016,8(10):1-17.
[20] Long Y, Wu K. Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China[J].Environment and Planning A, 2016,48(2):220-222.
[21] Langner M, Endlicher W. Shrinking cities:Effects on urban ecology and challenges for urban development[M].Pieterlen:Peter Lang,2007.
[22] Hollander J B. Polluted and dangerous:America’s worst abandoned properties and what can be done about them[M].Burlington:University of Vermont Press,2009.
[23]高舒琦.收缩城市研究综述[J].城市规划学刊,2015,38(4):43-49.[Gao Shuqi. A review of research on shrinking cities. Urban Planning Forum,2015,38(4):43-49.]
[24] Pallagst K. Shrinking cities planning challenges from an international perspective[M]//Rugare S. Cities growing smaller.Cleveland:Kent State’s Cleveland Urban Design Collaborative,2008:6-16.
[25]于婷婷,宋玉祥,浩飞龙,等.东北三省人口分布空间格局演化及其驱动因素研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(5):709-717.[Yu Tingting, Song Yuxiang, Hao Feilong et al. Space pattern evolution of population distribution and the driving factors in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(5):709-717.]
[26] Hoekveld J J. Understanding spatial differentiation in urban decline levels[J].European Planning Studies,2014,22(2):362-382.
[27] Delken E. Happiness in shrinking cities in Germany:A research note[J].Journal of Happiness Studies,2008,9(9):213-218.
[28] Hasse D, Haase A, Rink D. Conceptualizing the nexus between urban shrinkage and ecosystem services[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,132:159-169.
[29] Fritsche M, Langer M, Kohler H et al. Shrinking cities-A new challenge for research in urban ecology[Z].Working Paper,2007.
[30] Frazier A E, Bagchi-Sen S. Developing open space networks in shrinking cities[J].Applied Geography,2015,59(1):1-9.
[31]国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004-2015.[The National Bureau of Statistics Urban Social and Economic Investigation Department. China city statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2004-2015.]
[32]国家统计局国民经济综合统计司.中国区域经济统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004-2015.[The National Bureau of Statistics National Economy Comprehensive Statistics Department. China statistical yearbook for regional economy. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2004-2015.]
[33]自然资源部.中国国土资源统计年鉴[M].北京:地质出版社,2004-2015.[Ministry of Natural Resources. China land and resources statistical yearbook 2004-2015. Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2004-2015.]
[34]李恩平.城市化时间路径曲线的推导与应用——误解阐释与研究拓展[J].人口研究,2014,38(3):28-40.[Li Enping. Derivation and application of the urbanization curve:Interpretation of misunderstanding and implications for further research. Population Research,2014,38(3):28-40.]
[35]黄鹤.精明收缩:应对城市衰退的规划策略及其在美国的实践[J].城市与区域规划研究, 2011(3):157-168.[Huang He. Smart decline planning measures for urban decay and its practice in US. Journal of Urban and Regional Planning,2011(3):157-168.]