全球大洋潮汐模式在北印度洋潮汐预报准确性的评估
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摘要
为评估DTU10、TPXO8、GOT00.2和NAO.99b 4个全球大洋潮汐模式对北印度洋潮汐的预报能力,采用英国海洋资料中心提供的海区中部和沿岸站潮汐调和常数资料,检验了这些模式4个主要分潮(M_2、S_2、K_1、O_1)的准确度。它们的各分潮调和常数资料准确度都比较高,振幅绝均差的最大值仅5.61 cm,迟角绝均差的最大值仅9.13°。这些模式的调和常数给出潮波传播特征差别不大。基于这些模式提供的调和常数,分别建立了北印度洋4、8和16分潮潮汐预报模型,将预报结果与中国海事服务网提供的沿岸24个站潮汐表资料进行对比。各模式的8分潮(M_2、S_2、N_2、K_2、K_1、O_1、P_1、Q_1)潮汐预报模型均优于4分潮(M_2、S_2、K_1、O_1)潮汐预报模型,NAO.99b模式可以提供16分潮(M_2、S_2、N_2、K_2、K_1、O_1、P_1、Q_1、MU_2、NU_2、T_2、L_2、2N_2、J_1、M1、OO_1)潮汐预报模型,但是对预报结果改善不明显;在各模式中,GOT00.2模式的8分潮潮汐预报模型对北印度洋沿岸的预报效果最好,平均绝均差为14.97 cm。
In order to assess the tide prediction by four global ocean tide models( DTU10, TPXO8, GOT00.2 and NAO.99 b) in the North Indian Ocean, their harmonic constants of four main tide constituents(M_2, S_2, K_1 and O_1) at the central sea areas and coasts are tested using data from the British Ocean Data Center(BODC). These models all have small errors of harmonic constants, and the largest values of average absolute error(AAE) are 5.61 cm for amplitude and 9.13 ° for phase lag. The difference on tidal propagation characteristics revealing by harmonic constants from different models are small. Using the four, eight, or sixteen tide harmonic constants from these models respectively, some tide predictions models are set up, and they are tested by the tide tables from China National Seamen Service. The tide prediction models with eight tide harmonic constants(of M_2, S_2, N_2, K_2, K_1, O_1, P_1 and Q_1 tide constituents) are all better than those with four tide harmonic constants(of M_2, S_2, K_1 and O_1 tide constituents). The NAO.99b can be used to establish the tide prediction model with sixteen tide harmonic constants(of M_2, S_2, N_2, K_2, K_1, O_1, P_1, Q_1, MU_2, NU_2, T_2, L_2, 2N_2, J_1, M_1 and OO_1 tide constituents), which makes quite small difference of tide prediction with that using eight tide harmonic constants. In the all tide prediction models, the one with eight tide harmonic constants has the least error of tide prediction at the coasts of the North Indian Ocean. Its average value of AAE is 14.97 cm.
In order to assess the tide prediction by four global ocean tide models( DTU10, TPXO8, GOT00.2 and NAO.99 b) in the North Indian Ocean, their harmonic constants of four main tide constituents(M_2, S_2, K_1 and O_1) at the central sea areas and coasts are tested using data from the British Ocean Data Center(BODC). These models all have small errors of harmonic constants, and the largest values of average absolute error(AAE) are 5.61 cm for amplitude and 9.13 ° for phase lag. The difference on tidal propagation characteristics revealing by harmonic constants from different models are small. Using the four, eight, or sixteen tide harmonic constants from these models respectively, some tide predictions models are set up, and they are tested by the tide tables from China National Seamen Service. The tide prediction models with eight tide harmonic constants(of M_2, S_2, N_2, K_2, K_1, O_1, P_1 and Q_1 tide constituents) are all better than those with four tide harmonic constants(of M_2, S_2, K_1 and O_1 tide constituents). The NAO.99b can be used to establish the tide prediction model with sixteen tide harmonic constants(of M_2, S_2, N_2, K_2, K_1, O_1, P_1, Q_1, MU_2, NU_2, T_2, L_2, 2N_2, J_1, M_1 and OO_1 tide constituents), which makes quite small difference of tide prediction with that using eight tide harmonic constants. In the all tide prediction models, the one with eight tide harmonic constants has the least error of tide prediction at the coasts of the North Indian Ocean. Its average value of AAE is 14.97 cm.
引文
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Gladkikh V,Tenzer R,2011.A comparison of model estimates of oceantide loading displacements in New Zealand.Journal of Geodetic Science,1(2):94-113.
Matsumoto K,Takanezawa T,Ooe M,2000.Ocean Tide Models Developed by Assimilating TOPEX/POSEIDON Alimeter Data into Hydrodynamical Model:A Global Model and a Regional Model around Japan.Journal of Oceanography,56(5):567-581.
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李大炜,李建成,金涛勇,等,2012.利用验潮站资料评估全球海潮模型的精度.大地测量与地球动力学,32(4):106-110.
刘洋,杨晓丹,毛新燕,2013.马六甲海峡的潮汐特征分析.海洋预报,30(3):18-25.
孙佳龙,郭金运,郭淑艳,等,2013.基于验潮资料的CSR4.0模型和NAO.99b模型在中国海域的精度分析.地球物理学进展,28(5):2787-2795.
滕飞,方国洪,王新怡,等,2013.印度尼西亚近海潮汐潮流的数值模拟.海洋科学进展,31(2):166-179.
汪一航,方国洪,魏泽勋,等,2010.基于卫星高度计的全球大洋潮汐模式的准确度评估.地球科学进展,25(4):353-359.
王永刚,魏泽勋,方国洪,等,2014.印度尼西亚海域潮波的数值研究.海洋学报,14(3):1-8.
谢石建,朱首贤,马疆,等,2015.基于NAO.99b资料对南海主要岛礁潮汐特征的分析.解放军理工大学学报:自然科学版,16(6):593-599.
Cheng Y,Andersen O B,2011.Multimission empirical ocean tide modeling for shallow waters and polar seas.Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,116(C11):1130-1146.
Egbert G D,Erofeeva S Y,2002.Efficient Inverse Modeling of Barotropic Ocean Tides.Journal of Atmospheric&Oceanic Technology,19(2):183-204.
Gladkikh V,Tenzer R,2011.A comparison of model estimates of oceantide loading displacements in New Zealand.Journal of Geodetic Science,1(2):94-113.
Matsumoto K,Takanezawa T,Ooe M,2000.Ocean Tide Models Developed by Assimilating TOPEX/POSEIDON Alimeter Data into Hydrodynamical Model:A Global Model and a Regional Model around Japan.Journal of Oceanography,56(5):567-581.
Ray R,Egbert G,Erofeeva S,2005.A Brief Overview of Tides in the Indonesian Seas.Oceanography,18(4):74-79.
Shum C K,Woodworth P L,Andersen O B,et al,1997.Accuracy assessment of recent ocean tide models.Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,102194(15):173-125.
冯士筰,李风岐,李少菁,1999.海洋科学导论.北京:高等教育出版社,208.
高秀敏,魏泽勋,吕咸青,等,2014.全球大洋潮汐模式在南海的准确度评估.海洋科学进展,32(1):1-14.
李大炜,李建成,金涛勇,等,2012.利用验潮站资料评估全球海潮模型的精度.大地测量与地球动力学,32(4):106-110.
刘洋,杨晓丹,毛新燕,2013.马六甲海峡的潮汐特征分析.海洋预报,30(3):18-25.
孙佳龙,郭金运,郭淑艳,等,2013.基于验潮资料的CSR4.0模型和NAO.99b模型在中国海域的精度分析.地球物理学进展,28(5):2787-2795.
滕飞,方国洪,王新怡,等,2013.印度尼西亚近海潮汐潮流的数值模拟.海洋科学进展,31(2):166-179.
汪一航,方国洪,魏泽勋,等,2010.基于卫星高度计的全球大洋潮汐模式的准确度评估.地球科学进展,25(4):353-359.
王永刚,魏泽勋,方国洪,等,2014.印度尼西亚海域潮波的数值研究.海洋学报,14(3):1-8.
谢石建,朱首贤,马疆,等,2015.基于NAO.99b资料对南海主要岛礁潮汐特征的分析.解放军理工大学学报:自然科学版,16(6):593-599.